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Sunday, March 12, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Well, that damn test is done. Let me tell you this: The BarBri review materials seriously suck. Not only are they poorly written and contain inconsistencies, but the practice test questions bear very little relationship to what you actually see on the real test. Grr. At least it's over.

On to better thoughts: What races look good to you? I'm very intrigued by the situation in CA-24. I can't wait to see what happens there.

UPDATE: Check this out from Kathy Harris:

"While there has been much speculation in recent days concerning my campaign, and our party faces challenges in this midterm election, I am confident with your dedication and commitment, we shall be victorious in November," she said.

However, her statement was vague, not saying whether Harris thought she would be victorious. Rather, it said she would "prayerfully prepare with my family, friends and advisers to finalize the strategy for a major announcement next week concerning my candidacy for the U.S. Senate."

This is one of the wimpiest statements I've ever seen from a campaign. Prayerfully prepare? Man, there is almost no way she isn't quitting.

Posted at 05:26 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

How did you find the test? Was it easier or harder than what you were expecting?

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 11, 2006 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I felt the questions on the actual test were a lot more nuanced - hence, harder - than the BarBri practice test questions.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 11, 2006 05:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in AZ-05. The AZ Democratic Party chairman, Harry Mitchell, is a beloved former high school teacher and a current state senator in the area. (Apparently they've named roads and buildings after him, and he's even got a statue.) He's considering challenging Hayworth, but hasn't made up his mind yet.

If he runs, this could put his seat in play in a major way.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0310HayworthChallenger10-ON.html

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 11, 2006 05:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congratulations on getting it done. (And thanks for all your great work on this site, even as you have other things to do.)

Posted by: Andy Albertson at March 12, 2006 12:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congratulations on getting it done. (And thanks for all your great work on this site, even as you have other things to do.)

Posted by: Andy Albertson at March 12, 2006 12:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The major blogs all need to refocus on CA-50 and Francine Busby. It seems like everyone forgot after Cuellar. Blogs like DailyKos better "remember" Busby before the election is a week away. We've got a whole month to channel resources to Busby and do the best we can to give her a crack at 50% in the special election.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 12, 2006 05:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AZ-05. Hayworth is always so smug. I hate the way he always has that grin on his face. I think that a Mitchell has a chance but he can't wait. He'll need to push hard in the wealthier areas north of Tempe.

Posted by: jerzay at March 12, 2006 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i'm also interested in the NJ-05 race. I grew up in the district. There is a very slim possibility that this may become a race. If the Aronsohn campaign can turnout voters they have a shot. Even in the western part of the district there is, at least, potential for some Dem gain on Garrett.

Posted by: jerzay at March 12, 2006 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 2006 Ohio Senate race is looking like the 2004 Senate race now. Dewine leads 51-35 don't make me say i told you so when i kept saying Hackett could win and Brown Could'nt. Please Mr. Brown people of Ohio prove me and this poll wrong and elect Sherrod this year.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 12, 2006 02:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, that's exactly what I feared would happen in OH-Sen. Obviously, it isn't too late for Brown to stage a comeback, but this is no longer a top-tier pickup opportunity for the Dems.

Posted by: Mark at March 12, 2006 03:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ohio is definitely looking rough for us right now, but I suspect it's not as bad as that one-off poll says. Arm-twisting Hackett out of the race has clearly fractured the Democratic base enough in Ohio to make DeWine breathe a little easier.

That said... there's a lot of time left in this race for Sherrod to turn it around. But OH is not the "likely pick-up" that a lot of people thought it'd be.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 12, 2006 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in ME-Gov. Why is Baldacci polling so low? The Rasmussen numbers suggest he's our most vulnerable incumbent by far.

Posted by: X Stryker at March 12, 2006 05:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

X Stryker, Baldacci's numbers are so bad because he's attempting a universal health care initiative in the state that is being aggressively smeared by the insurance companies. It was on Now on Public TV last month.

Posted by: Mark at March 12, 2006 06:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jim Craig made it official in NH-01. This could turn into a competitive race. There is a four way primary but I expect Craig to win easily.

http://www.unionleader.com/columns.aspx/Opinion?channel=139832ce-97eb-4460-bf99-b71df3b7f0cc

He hired a campaign manager and has begun to raise money. I am anxious to see if he will be able to catch up to Jeb Bradley who has $254,589 on hand. Bradley has been a rubber stamp for Bush who is extremely unpopular in NH right now. The DCCC does not seem to have targeted this race yet but I think we could win it, or at least expand the playing field and force the Republicans to spend more more money.

Check out this Granite State Poll done by UNH. Bush has a 39% approval rating and 57% disaprove.

link here:
http://www.unh.edu/surveycenter/presapp022006.pdf

In addition to Bush's low approval Democratic Governor John Lynch's approval is at an all time high with 71% of registered voters giving him high marks. It looks like he may even run unopposed which means he will be able to help other candidates like Craig.

link here:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/govapp022206.pdf

At the very least it should give another Republican a race.

Posted by: itstime at March 12, 2006 09:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-SEN: Jon Tester is still one of my favorite candidates in the entire country. I am donating all the money I can, DavidNYC...get this guy some front page exposure!

CT-SEN: For some reason during the past week I was bit hard by the "Ned-bug." I am fully onboard getting rid of Joe-Mentum now.

MN-01: Tim Walz is my favorite candidate in the country, along with Tester. He talks a plains-style populism, is a fightin' Dem, and has a HUGE grassroots movement behind him. This is a race to watch.

MN-GOV: I may be switching camps from Steve Kelley to Becky Lourey...stay tuned.

Posted by: DFLer22 at March 12, 2006 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Obviously you have put a lot of thought into this post and although there are some points that I disagree with, I will choose to remain silent in this case. One thing that I will say though is choose your words carefully. People such as myself are easily offended when what's written is confusing or incoherent causing misintrepretations translating into frustration.

Posted by: kingofpirates at March 12, 2006 11:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hrm. The comment directly above this one is... pretty confusing to me. Someone angry at me for dissing BarBri? ;)

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 13, 2006 12:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I dunno, David, but after reading that, all I've got to say is that people such as myself are easily offended when what's written is confusing or incoherent causing misintrepretations translating into frustration.

:P

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 13, 2006 02:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Curious, DFLer22.....why are you considering switching?

Posted by: JelloAbode at March 13, 2006 09:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Steve Kelley would make a solid candidate for MN-Gov. I no longer live in the state, but definitely considered throwing my support for him. Personally, I think Hatch stands a better chance of winning over the rural vote, so I'm still ultimately leaning his direction. On the other hand, there's no way I can see the "new Minnesota" supporting Becky Lourey. The modern political alignment in Minnesota requires Democrats to be victorious in previous Republican bastions like Minnetonka and Bloomington. Democrats who win there (Al Gore, John Kerry) usually win the state. Democrats who lose there (Roger Moe, Walter Mondale '02) lose the state. Sorry, but I can't see Becky Lourey beating Pawlenty in Minnetonka.

Posted by: Mark at March 13, 2006 10:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There are a number of reasons I am thinking about supporting Lourey.
1. DFA vs. DLC
2. Lourey has been gaining momentum, Congressman Oberstar endorsed her.
3. She is the only outstate candidate.
4. She is an outsider, Hatch is the insider's insider.
5. Steve Kelley reminds me of Roger Moe, a boring State Senator.

Posted by: DFLer22 at March 13, 2006 11:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now, here's what I'm worried about: rumor has it that both Katherine Harris (FL) and incumbent Conrad Burns (MT) might drop out of their respective senate races. If that happens, both of those seats will be more difficult for the Democrats. Any thoughts?

Posted by: The Caped Composer at March 13, 2006 02:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It really depends who they find in FL. MT would be a lot tougher with Burns out, but the state has a tradition of electing Democrats to the Senate. It wouldn't be undoable--and if the candidate ran on a campaign of cleaning house, we could have 2 Democrats from MT in the Senate.

Hard to say, though, until we get a clearer picture of the FL race. Montana would be obvious: Rehberg would get promoted, and someone from the Montana state house or senate would get the nod for Rehberg's seat.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 13, 2006 05:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've been concerned for some time now that Conrad Burns would choose to retire in Montana. My guess is the decision to replace Burns with Rehberg has been in the works for months....and we're probably screwed. On the other hand, I thought the Katherine Harris candidacy was resolved. Now that looks shaky as well. I'm less worried about Nelson's prospects there given the late start of whoever Harris' eventual rival may be. Still, I think we'd all rather go up against Harris than Bense or Foley.

Posted by: Mark at March 13, 2006 06:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've been watching Rahm Emanuel and Steny Hoyer in action in FL-13. Now that they've managed to force Dave Lutrin out of the race against Mark Foley (in favor of Emanuel's handpicked August convert to the Democratic Party), they are firing all guns in the direction of Jan Schneider. It's dismaying to watch these guys in action-- even after seeing how the same heavy-handed tactics to drive Paul Hackett out of the Ohio Senate race, has driven down Brown's polling numbers drastically. I doubt they'll ever learn that Democrats actually like democracy and primaries are party of democracy. Bosses picking candidates is not.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at March 14, 2006 12:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We've got ourselves a hell of a race lined up against J.D. Hayworth. Harry Mitchell's in. (If you recall, earlier polling showed Hayworth and Mitchell neck-and-neck, with a slight edge towards Mitchell.)

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 14, 2006 01:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in the North Carolina races in general. But the 4th is interesting in that the Democrat is being challenged from the left. There is an interesting interview by the incumbent, David Price, to BlueNC at http://www.bluenc.com/node/1542. Price talks about everything from impeachment to his priorities in the coming session.

Posted by: TarGator at March 14, 2006 08:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dunno if this will actually get read seeing how low on the page this thread is - but DFLer22, you wouldn't happen to be Becky Lourey's political director, would you?

Posted by: JelloAbode at March 16, 2006 09:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment