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Saturday, March 18, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

NY-24 is currently my number one race, and I suspect it'll occupy quite a lot of my thoughts from now until November. People are saying that Oneida County DA Mike Arcuri is the top Dem candidate. What do you know about him? (And, if Arcuri's as good as people seem to think, I'd really like it if the campaign would start reaching out to bloggers.)

Posted at 01:53 PM in Site News | Technorati

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Their are currently 4 Dems running for that 24th seat. Arcuri is the heavy favorite, you have Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler epidemiologist Les Robert and Utica attorney Leon Koziol.

I was looking at Robert's website and he could become a favorite of the bloggers, but I don't see him as having much of a chance to be frank. Tytler is probably the only other one that has a chance because he has a base of support which in a contested primary could be very vital.

Posted by: safi at March 18, 2006 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Also on Tuesday one of the most divisive Democratic primaries of the 06 cycle will be coming to an end. I'm talking about IL-06 between Iraq War Vet. Tammy Duckworth and 04 candidate Christine Cegelis. I dont live in the district, but I ahve a lot of family that does so I know the district pretty well. I have my preference, Duckworth, but I'll be glad once its over no matter who wins.

Posted by: safi at March 18, 2006 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That IL-06 BS ends on Tuesday? YEAH! Finally someone, and I don't care who, can get focused on winning the General election....which is all I care about.

Yea Team...The General Election is coming and I hope whoever wins the non-winner supports the winner enthusiastically and insists on her supporters doing the same!

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at March 18, 2006 03:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm so relieved that the IL-06 primary is almost here, too. The squabbling is freaking OBNOXIOUS. I'm definitely looking forward to seeing the results, though, to compare just how effective the two campaigns were.

As for areas of interest...

Certainly CA-50! I'm definitely interested in seeing how well Francine Busby can do in a red district like that. This will almost certainly go to a run-off, and I'm hoping we can give it some attention on a lot of the major blogs.

The Webb-Miller battle in VA is looking pretty damn interesting (I spent a couple hours after midnight reading the local blogs down there). Webb won a Fairfax County straw poll last night (Fairfax is heavy Miller turf--he used to be the county Democratic chair, I think), which was a bloody nose to him. Both campaigns have a lot of heavy-hitting talent behind them, and the locals say that Miller has the organizational edge early on. BUT, with a victory like that last night (which, some Miller supporters charge, was aided by Webb supporters buying tickets in droves to the event) clearly shows that Webb is running a strong campaign that could easily dislodge Miller. And the endorsements of Chap Peterson and Leslie Byrne are sure to help him, too.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 18, 2006 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think that NY-24 may become the next IL-06 as far a competitive primaries go...

Posted by: D in FL. at March 18, 2006 06:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Montana Senate race is suddenly very high on my radar screen, particularly with all the flux surrounding Burns' candidacy and potential primary challenges. If Burns isn't the GOP nominee here, the chances of either Morrison or Tester go down as far as I can tell. From now until November 7, I'm pulling for the old crook.

Posted by: Mark at March 18, 2006 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jack Carter's Senate race in Nevada is going well. This article covers the Democratic County Convention in Reno, and says that he's "becoming a crowd favorite."

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060312/NEWS04/603120368/1002/NEWS

I was there, and he got long standing ovations before and after his speech. I diaried those county conventions over at kos and at Mydd.

I think this race is heating up, and I think we can really win this.

Sarah

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at March 18, 2006 08:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jack Carter's Senate race in Nevada is going well. The AP article that covered the Democratic County Convention in Reno says that he's "becoming a crowd favorite." I was there, and he got long standing ovations before and after his speech. I diaried those county conventions over at kos and at Mydd.

I think this race is heating up, and I really think we can win this.

Sarah

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at March 18, 2006 08:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rep. Martin Sabo (D-Minn) announced today he is retiring. Sabo represents the heavily Democratic 5th District.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2006/03/18/saboretires

Posted by: quaoar at March 18, 2006 08:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think that NY-24 may become the next IL-06 as far a competitive primaries go...

Hush... don't say that. The last thing we need is another bitter fight like that. I am so relieved the primary is in just a couple of days.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 18, 2006 09:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fortunately, I really don't see NY-24 becoming like IL-06 because there's no Christine Cegelis among the other 3 primary candidates.

Posted by: safi at March 18, 2006 10:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am the political director of a student-run PAC.

www.snappac.org

here are the races we have gotten involved in:

Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - running for re-election
Representative Bernie Sanders of Vermont - running for Senate
Nick Lampson of the 22nd District of Texas - running for Congress
Diane Farrell of the 4th District of Connecticut - running for Congress
Chris Murphy of the 5th District of Connecticut - running for Congress
Joe Courtney of the 2nd District of Connecticut - running for Congress
Scott Kleeb of the 3rd District of Nebraska - running for Congress
Rep. Julia Carson of the 7th District of Indiana - running for re-election
Lois Murphy of the 6th District of Pennsylvania - running for Congress

I also can't wait to endorse Sherrod Brown (OH-sen) and Patricia Madrid.

Posted by: JaredNHCT at March 18, 2006 11:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Finally some movement on NY-13. A real candidate perhaps?

Posted by: NYGreg at March 19, 2006 01:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NY 13th
That would be fabulous. Spitzer Clinton is going to win that district. We can steal all of 9. Take Back the House in NY alone.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at March 19, 2006 02:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, here in Ohio, obviously our first order of business is to elect Ted Strickland governor. Our second is to elect Jennifer Brunner Secretary of State. She has pledged to make voting easier and not to campaign for issues or candidates while being in charge of the election process, something our current secretary of state has completely violated us on. The Marc Dann-Subodh Chandra race for attorney general just keeps getting more and more intriguing and I am sensing that Subodh is going to pull off a primary win. If so, he's got Betty Noe Montogmery in the general and I hope we see a whole lot of that coin invitation! (Jennifer actually brought some coins to our candidates forum this morning as a sort of show-and-tell-what-the-Republicans-have- done.)

Hey Jared, I'm glad you're so excited about endorsing Sherrod Brown but unless he radically reinvents his campaign and starts getting outside his comfort zone, he's going down, double digits. Most of the people around me are thinking his campaign's not worth time or resources when we HAVE to elect Strickland governoror shut the doors on this state. There's a remote chance Brown could coattail it IF he completely changes his entire approach to reach outside his base and appeal to independent, moderate, rural and downstate voters. But he seems to think everything is peachy, not a good sign.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at March 19, 2006 02:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Hey Jared, I'm glad you're so excited about endorsing Sherrod Brown but unless he radically reinvents his campaign and starts getting outside his comfort zone, he's going down, double digits. Most of the people around me are thinking his campaign's not worth time or resources when we HAVE to elect Strickland governoror shut the doors on this state. There's a remote chance Brown could coattail it IF he completely changes his entire approach to reach outside his base and appeal to independent, moderate, rural and downstate voters. But he seems to think everything is peachy, not a good sign."

You know you could try to have a little less schadenfreude about the Brown race. I know you hate Sherrod Brown now since Hackett quit, but seriously, for the good of the cause, suck it up and work to get a strong progressive elected to the Senate. You want Brown to change his approach? Then get involved in the campaign and work to change it. Is anybody keeping you from volunteering or from making your grievances heard? If they aren't, then quit harping from the back. It doesn't do anybody any good.

Posted by: nada at March 19, 2006 08:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

when is the VA-Sen primary?

Posted by: jcb at March 19, 2006 12:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The VA-Sen Primary is June 13th.

On the Ohio Senate race the only person that can change the Campaign is Brown. I belive that soon there will be a radical change in the campaign or at least i hope. Sherrod needs to A: Get in the news more. B: Put the Hackett-Gate behind us. and C: Campaign on the war in Iraq more. You do those three things and we will have Senator Sherrod Brown.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 19, 2006 01:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"You know you could try to have a little less schadenfreude about the Brown race. I know you hate Sherrod Brown now since Hackett quit, but seriously, for the good of the cause, suck it up and work to get a strong progressive elected to the Senate."

Sigh. There are so many things wrong with this comment I hardly know where to begin. First of all, I don't "hate' Sherrod Brown.I think he's a bad candidate running a bad campaign, and I thought that — and saw it in action — months and months BEFORE Hackett got out.

Second of all, it's this "suck it up and support Brown regardless" attitude that is driving people out of his campaign and is a stellar example of what I cited: Brown's expectation that he needs to do nothing except dangle his sterling progressive credentials in front of people and he is OWED your vote and your support. THAT is his arrogance — and yours. Every candidate needs to court voters. Brown and his followers think he's so special he is the one exception.

Almost every Dem insider I've talked to in the last month — including ardent Brown supporters — think he's going down bad. The supporters are talking about his need for more outreach; the most level-headed among them are NOT in your "suck it up and take it" camp which is destroying any residentual chances Brown may have had.

I don't think that electing Brown is necessarily a "good cause" anymore. What I see now is a cloistered, high-handed politician who might have a better voting record than some we've got but no more responsiveness to constituents. If he refuses to engage them during a campaign, he certainly won't engage them if he's elected.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at March 19, 2006 02:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm worried that Ansatasia's comments are on the mark here. Brown is suddenly finding himself 16 points behind DeWine in Ohio and most people seem to be carrying on as if it's business as usual, convincing themselves it's merely a speed bump following the Hackett primary controversy. Brown definitely needs an angle to distance himself from DeWine and the "crazy liberal" caricature that the GOP is well-positioned to brand him with. Pressing DeWine to defend his votes on the Iraq war may be a good start, but Brown will need another angle as well.

DeWine is a center-right politician representing a center-right state. No matter what his approval ratings may have been a year before the election in the midst of Ohio's GOP meltdown, it was gonna take someone who brings alot to the table to convince Ohioans that DeWine doesn't deserve another six years. Paul Hackett struck me as at least having the potential to be that person. Sherrod Brown does not. He can't beat DeWine simply by not being a Republican, particuarly as DeWine continues to move to the center. Brown has to seriously rethink his approach in the months to come or he'll get trounced everywhere south of Akron.

Posted by: Mark at March 19, 2006 02:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"On the Ohio Senate race the only person that can change the Campaign is Brown. I belive that soon there will be a radical change in the campaign or at least i hope. Sherrod needs to A: Get in the news more. B: Put the Hackett-Gate behind us. and C: Campaign on the war in Iraq more. You do those three things and we will have Senator Sherrod Brown."

D in Fl, I hope you are right that there will be change in his campaign because it is his only hope. He needs to do a couple of other things. He needs to frame his positions in ways that are clearer to people. His use of the word "trade" has been widely discussed here in Ohio. It's meaningless and he must stop using it, especially as a substitution for the easily understood "jobs." He needs to make all his speeches and press releases pithier so people can get the point more easily. He absolutely needs to take a strong position on Iraq and not just keep repeating that he voted against the war. He needs to spend less time with progressive activist and labour groups and start getting more used to venturing into hostile territory — and not just to meet the handful of progressives in that area.

And the only way he can put the Hackett thing behind him is to deal with it upfront and not in meandering, nitpicking timetables attempting to "prove" he actually decided to run before Hackett did (utterly untrue). It would have been over five weeks ago if he had done the right thing the next day. His continuing failure to deal with is going to make it drag on and on and on. All any Hackett supporter I have met wants is for him to acknowledge Hackett and what he brought to the campaign and stop spreading the untruth that Hackett wasn't running yet when Brown finally decided to throw his hat in the ring.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at March 19, 2006 02:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I spent the weekend canvassing for Duckworth in Glen Ellyn and Bloomingdale. She has a tight professional organization that is spending it's resources wisely. I don't have any idea how the race will turn out but we supposedly do have an advantage with the list of prospective voters that I'm guessing came from the DCCC. She's been endorsed by every newspaper in the region, both Durbin and Obama, and every union but the Machinists and Aerospace Workers who back Cegelis. The Tribune has been running articles focusing only on the money raised though they did finally run an article on the 3 candidates' positions last week. Yesterday we had over 100 volunteers at an orientation meeting on a beautiful Sunday afternoon getting training for Tuesday's primary. As far as I know none of those people are making a cent and says a lot for Tammy's grassroots support.

Peter Roskam the Repub opponent has been shopping for a congressional seat to win for years. He tried for IL-13 when Erlenborn retired back in '98 even though he didn't live in the district but lost to Judy Biggert. He went as far as having the religious wingnut Gary Bauer break FEC regs to send out negative mailers in the last few weeks. Bauer paid $12,000 I think it was for that little stunt.

Roskam won't be able to call Duckworth a carpetbagger for living 3 blocks outside the district and no matter who wins the primary we'll be watching to see if he cuts anymore FEC corners now. It's important for all Dems to come to together after this primary. This district has never elected a Democrat. Never. Roskam already has in excess of a million $ in the bank and he's spending on yard signs and hanger bags for downticket candidates even though he has no primary opposition. Cheney was in town last week and raised another $200,000 for him. Last I heard Tammy has about $500,000+, Cegelis 200,000+ and Lindy Scott who with his anti abortion stance and call to get out of Iraq in 16 to 18 months sounds to me like a Republican, less than $100,000.

I read some of the posts here after Tammy got in the race. Let me clear some things up. She was still on active duty til December and couldn't express much in the way of political views without getting herself in trouble with the DoD. Her positions may not be as far to the left as some would want but she has called for Bush to set benchmarks to get us out of Iraq and on virtually all issues she holds rock solid Democratic views. Do any of you really think Emanuel, Durbin and Obama endorsed a Republican lite candidate? That being said even though this district is changing demographically it's still going to be an uphill battle against a deeply entrenched Republican machine in one of the reddest districts in the country. But if we nominate Duckworth we have a real shot at it. One, because she's a darn good candidate with pretty good campaign skills and a great story that is visibly evident everytime she enters the room without even having to open her mouth. Two, because the Repubs have chosen one of their typical standard bearers who began his career as an aide to DeLay, never served and was accused (by another Republican no less) of dirty campaign tactics that resulted in a fine for his out of state radical religious supporters.

Posted by: markg8 at March 20, 2006 02:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

New York CD-24
Congressional Quarterly has changed the rating on this Race to "No Clear Favorite" (was Safe Rep):
CQ 3/20/06
NY 24: Boehlert To Retire After 12 Terms
By pvolpe | 3:50 PM; Mar. 17, 2006

"Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., announced this afternoon that he will not seek a 13th term in the House from the 24th District, leaving open a seat that Democrats now will aggressively target.

“Today I am announcing I will not be a candidate for re-election,” Boehlert, 69, said at a news conference in Utica, the largest city in the central New York district he has represented since 1983.

Boehlert, the outgoing chairman of the Science Committee, added that “it’s time” for him to leave Congress.
With Boehlert retiring from a relatively competitive district that presently has no dominant front-runner, CQPolitics.com is changing its rating of the New York 24 race to No Clear Favorite from Safe Republican.

The 24th has a generic Republican lean — the GOP has held a 10-point advantage over Democrats in voter registration the past two years. But President Bush carried the 24th with a modest 52 percent in the 2004 election. He won the area even more narrowly four years earlier.

Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, who represents New York’s 26th District and also is chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, praised Boehlert as a “Hall of Fame lawmaker” and described the 24th district as “solidly Republican.”

Democrats took a different tack on the upcoming open-seat race.

“This is a district that a Democrat can win and should win because New York families deserve a voice in Congress who will not become irrelevant or a simply act like a rubber stamp for the special interest Bush agenda,” said Bill Burton, the communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The early Democratic favorite is Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri, who has won four elections in the GOP-leaning county in and around Utica.

“We need change,” Arcuri said in a statement that also praised Boehlert. “As District Attorney for the past twelve years, I have demonstrated that leadership can make a difference, and I want to provide that new generation of leadership we need to secure those changes in Washington.”

Joining Arcuri in the Sept. 12 Democratic primary is former Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler; epidemiologist Les Robert; and attorney Leon Koziol.

Former Seneca Falls Mayor Brad Jones, a strongly conservative candidate, said he would seek the Republican nomination even before rumors of Boehlert’s retirement surfaced.

But many GOP insiders prefer a more moderate candidate in the mold of Boehlert. State Sen. Raymond A. Meier had indicated interest in the seat. So had state Sen. James L. Seward, though he said Friday that he would instead seek re-election to the legislature.

Prospective candidates must qualify for the race by July 13.

Boehlert’s announcement capped off weeks of speculation about whether the veteran legislator would retire. A GOP term limit requirement would have forced Boehlert to relinquish the Science gavel at the end of this Congress, and he was unable to secure another committee chairmanship.

Republican leaders lobbied Boehlert to stay, in part to ensure that his 24th District would stay in the GOP column. Boehlert spoke with President Bush aboard Air Force One earlier this week.

Boehlert has easily won every general elections since his first race in 1982, mainly due to his bipartisan appeal and GOP centrism on environmental issues. He has been more politically vulnerable in recent primary elections, in which conservative voters hold sway.

“My manner of representation and voting record for more than two decades has earned for me the label of moderate,” Boehlert said. “I’m proud of that label, fervently believing that the overwhelming majority of thinking people reject the extremes of the left and right.”
________

I won't be getting my hopes up as rep registration is about 166K and Dem 126K in the 24th.
However, only 2/3rds of Meier's Senate District is in CD24 and the 47th SSD only encompasses about a third of the 24th CD. Acuri's domain only encompasses a third or less of the District. Plus, it looks like Acuri & Meier share the same ground here.
Meier also ran on the Conservative line in his 2004 StSenate race, so it will be interesting to see if Jones will be able to get that line and the RTL (Right To Life) line. If Jones fails to win the GOP nomination but can get on the Conserv and RTL lines, this could be a good bet for us as a pick-up: splitting the conservative vote and given Spitzer & Clinton coattails.

Posted by: Predictor at March 20, 2006 03:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Lost in the explosion of Illinois discussion is that Burns now has a primary challenger! Senate Minority Leader Keenan jumped in.

Should be explosive...

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 22, 2006 06:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I could wait for a new open thread, but I will say that I have news about at least two new candidates.

One against Boozman and One against Ehlers.

Posted by: RBH at March 25, 2006 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment