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Sunday, March 26, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCTalk to me, people.
Posted at 03:50 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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As the weeks go by, I'm more and more optimistic about our chances here in Indiana, to pick up two or three house seats and win back the state House of Representatives (we only need to flip 3).
It was very telling that on Friday the President came to raise $$ for Mike Sodrel (rematched with Baron Hill in SE Indiana -- it was the closest House race in the country in '04). Bush was in-and-out in less than an hour. There were no public appearances (I guess Sodrel didn't want to be actually SEEN with him, even in Indianapolis, let alone his district), and the $1000 per plate luncheon didn't even come close to selling out.
On the state level, not only is the President's approval rating under 40% (almost unheard of for a Republican President in Indiana), but our GOP Governor Mitch Daniels is just as unpopular. I actually don't think he's done as horrible of a job as I expected him to do when he got elected, but he's going to catch hell for being the one who finally put Indiana on daylight savings time. While that's not a Dem/Rep issue as much as it is an Indianapolis-vs-rural Indiana issue, rural voters who were opposed to it are REALLY opposed (especially older voters) and seem poised to take it out on all Republicans in the fall.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 26, 2006 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Indiana finally consented to DST? No joke. Strange how such things can have such potency.
Posted by: DavidNYC at March 26, 2006 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
After a couple of decades, the votes were finally put together to push it through the legislature -- so yeah, we start with the rest of you all this year! But yeah, it's issues like this that get people who are not terribly political really riled up, and I think it could come back to bite Republicans. Even though I was for DST, I'm not above seeing rural Democrats use it!!
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at March 26, 2006 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
How much did they take in?
And is there any comment in Indiana papers and media about the President pitching in to help Sodrel but not Hostetler ?
Posted by: Christopher Walker at March 26, 2006 06:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think they raised about a half-million or so for Sodrel. In advance they said they wanted this to account for 1/4 of all of his fundraising for the entire campaign. A chunk of change, no doubt, but it was mentioned that there were several empty seats in the room set up for 500.
You raise an interesting point about Hostetler. I didn't hear anything mentioned specifically about that, but he has not raised really any money at all. He's always hated fundraising, and relied on an army of volunteers to mobilize voters in the rural part of the state. But he's also always relied on national Republicans and conservative organizations to bail him out by kicking in a ton of cash at the end. Given the number of seats the GOP has to defend this year, I'm not so sure he's going to be able to count on that level of support this time.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at March 26, 2006 06:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Believe it or not, there was serious consideration to passing a repeal of DST during this session of the legislature. I dont understand the emotion with that issue. Bush/Sodrel raised $500,000. He has appeared for two other incumbent GOPers in the state and it was mentioned on one local talk show that he has not appeared for Hostetler. That has been noticed.
Posted by: IndyDan at March 26, 2006 06:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That's really interesting about Hostettler. Remember, though, there's still 7 months left until November. Lot more time for Bush to make more trips.
Question: Is Bill Clinton doing these kind of fundraisers for Dem House hopefuls?
Posted by: DavidNYC at March 26, 2006 06:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Last I saw, Bill Clinton was raking in big heaps of cash by giving lectures in Canadian arenas. I sure hope he gets off the lecture circuit and onto the campaigning circuit soon. The one guy who seems to be hosting the most fundraisers is Max Cleland, from what I can tell. It seems he's showing up wherever he's needed.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 26, 2006 07:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am very worried about WI-Gov. Friday, Republican nominee candidate Scott Walker (Milwaukee County Executive) shockingly announced he was quitting the race . I mean nobody saw this coming. So that clears the field for U.S. Rep Mark Green of Green Bay to face what is in my opinion a very vulnerable Dem in Jim Doyle. Some people, like in one front page post I read on Daily Kos, don't see the governor's race here as a threat because Green lacks name recognition, but I could not disagree more.
In 2002, Doyle won with 45%. There was a strong challenge from a Libertarian candidate who had name recognition being Tommy Thompson's brother. His approval ratings are about at that same mark and most polls show Doyle with very narrow, one or two point lead. That worries me that its this far away from November and it's already that close and I believe it also shows that Green still has a lot of room for improvement as his name gets out there.
Also, there is the dreaded gay marriage amendment up for referendum. That will probably pass and help Green at the same time. I'm very concerned that Democrats are about to lose their hold on the governorship of Wisconsin.
Posted by: griswald11 at March 26, 2006 08:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New candidate mania
MI-3: Grand Rapids Board of Education member Jim Rinck is running to unseat Vern Ehlers.
AR-3: Woodrow Anderson is running to unseat John Boozman.
The preceding was not a prediction of victory for either candidate. And yes, I know Anderson has a variety of groantastic things (from that article). But, he also looks like Radar from MASH. Which may not balance out the 'formerly part of Arthur Andersen' thing.
Granted, Northwest Arkansas is probably a bit frustrating for Democrats. But, it's one of those districts, where voters vote Republican even for state offices.
Posted by: RBH at March 26, 2006 09:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
RBH,
Don't forget:
AL-01: Former Montgomery Co. Treasurer (and ex-Republican) Vivian Beckerle is running against Jo Bonner. Well, at least we know that one Alabama Republican, at the very least, will not go unchallenged this year...
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 26, 2006 10:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
AR-03: Wasn't that the district where a young Bill Clinton made a gutsy, almost-successful run against the entrenched Republican congressman in 1974? Clinton came within a hair of stealing the deep-Republican seat, and it became the launching pad for his political career.
Somehow, I doubt this guy will have the same luck...
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 26, 2006 10:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Whats the deal with Indiana and DST? Why are people so riled up about it?
Posted by: AlecBGreen at March 26, 2006 10:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh yeah, races - VA-Sen just had a few fireworks. Harris Miller got into some hot water for paying volunteers to collect signatures. Thats a big no-no. At least one was underage, also illegal. I think in the end it turned out to be a minor problem but its bad press his campaign doesnt need right now. Also, Miller and one of Webb's advisors (Mudcat Saunders) got into a pretty heated row at a fundraiser down in SW VA. In the end its nothing major, but man that primary cant come soon enough. Im looking forward to Webb winning the nomination (as I think he will) and then he proceeding to tear Allen a new asshole.
Posted by: AlecBGreen at March 26, 2006 10:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
On VA-Sen i think there is no way Webb will not win the primary somthing major would have to break like he killed he ex-girl friend or somthing in order for him not to win the primary.
On Indiana races if Democrats have a okay year they will pick up the 9th district. If Democrats have a good year they will pick up IN-08 and IN-09. If Democrats have an Excillent year (reverse 1994) than they will pick up the 2nd the 8th and the 9th and come closer than expected in the 3rd 4th 5th and 6th.
on WI-Gov i don't know if Doyle can lose. I have a hard time seeing Mark Green win in a state that has Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl as it's two senators. With Bush so low why on Earth would they want to replace there Dem. Govenor with a Republican one?
My own race i'm interested in is CA-50 and Francine Busby I hope she can win and pull an upset but my gut tells me the GOP will hold it.
Posted by: D in FL. at March 26, 2006 10:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Thing about Webb is that Virginia primary voters have a choice: they can go for someone safely Democratic yet, in my opinion, crushingly bland (Harris Miller), or they could go with the higher profiler, higher risk, more provocative candidate, James Webb. Webb's risky because he has a streak of independence to him, his positions on the issues aren't exactly clear yet (though I've liked what I've heard so far), and he's bolted from the Democrats before because of Vietnam.
On the other hand, all those risks could precisely generate themselves into huge general election advantages against Allen. His military career, his Reagan connection... all combine to give an attractive candidate to conservative-leanining independents who are looking for a change. Plus, his consistent critiques of the Iraq War will be VERY valuable to the Democratic caucus. Right now, Virginia Democrats are feeling Webb out to see if he'll be loyal enough. Remember: primary voters don't just think like you and I do. While a good deal of voters think strategically (for better or worse, see: Iowa caucuses, 2004), party loyalty and ideological purity do play an important role in picking winners. Some voters might side with the safe-but-bland Miller over the risky but probably more appealing Webb.
Miller also has deep pockets, so I think he'll pose a credible hurdle to Webb.
For what it's worth, I'm hoping to see Webb mop the floor with him.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 26, 2006 11:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah Wisconsin is weird in that regard. On the one hand, we elect a true progressive to the U.S. Senate in Feingold, a reliable Democrat in Herb Kohl, and a fairly liberal governor in Jim Doyle; and you also have Madison, the birthplace of the progressive moment and still one of the most progressive cities in the entire country.
But the state may be trending Republican. The GOP has solid majorities in both chambers of the Legislature, and not only is it solid but it is extremely and frighteningly hard-right. Among the bills they tried to pass was a ban on the morning-after pill on UW Campuses, if that gives you any idea. They are also working on re-instituting the death penalty (WI was the first state in the country to ban it, way back in the 1850s) and the aforementioned gay marriage amendment. In addition, Gore and Kerry just barely escaped with wins (I believe Gore won by 5,000 and Kerry 10,000).
I think Doyle is in a lot of trouble but may be helped by the fact that he is crushing Green in fundraising.
Posted by: griswald11 at March 27, 2006 12:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
griswald, I would concur that Wisconsin is trending Republican. It's always been a pretty competitive state, but the reasons behind it's apparent lurch right are uncomplicated. The state's primary growth zone is the suburbs (and exurbs) of Milwaukee, which could easily rival Sun Belt hotspots like Atlanta and Dallas for their rock-solid Republicanism. As Waukesha and Washington Counties grow and Milwaukee County loses people, winning in Wisconsin will get harder and harder.
The only thing I think could save the day for Doyle is that a state as evenly divided as Wisconsin is not gonna want all Republican state government, which is what they'd get if Mark Green won the election (not to mention an end to same-day registration that perennially ranks the state first or second in voter turnout). If swing voters in places like Wausau, Sparta, and Baraboo think that the GOP supermajority in the WI legislature could get a rubber-stamp GOP Governor to join at the hip with, I trust these voters will be scared into giving Doyle an encore despite their lack of enthusiasm for the guy.
Posted by: Mark at March 27, 2006 01:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Alec -- If I could give you a coherent answer on why so many Hoosiers oppose DST in under 5000 words I would. A whole bunch of just beyond stupid arguments against it have been used -- but I think it goes back to Indiana being a deeply conservative state in the "fear change" sort of way. The traditional argument is that farmers wanted an extra hour in the morning (especially since we are at the far western end of the eastern time zone), but it has spun off into a series of bizarre claims that makes us earn the reputation of the state that was stupid enough to give the country Dan Quayle!!
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at March 27, 2006 07:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Re. AR-03: From Facts on File, 11/05/74- "The Democrats almost scored a clean sweep. [Arkansas]'s only Republican member of Congress, Representative John Paul Hammerschmidt, 52, won by a 5,000-vote margin, out of 170,000 cast, over Bill Clinton (D), 28, a law professor at the University of Arkansas. Hammerschmidt had won two years ago with 77% of the vote."
Posted by: RBH at March 27, 2006 08:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm interested in AK-Gov. Despite claiming that it will poll every race every month, Rasmussen never polls Alaska. However, I found a poll showing that Sara Palin would beat the incumbent Murkowski in the GOP primary, and Ethan Berkowitz would win the Dem primary by a landslide. The poll also showed that Berkowitz would beat Murkowski head to head and also with right-leaning independent Haclro in a 3-way. However, there's no matchup of Berkowitz vs. Palin.
Posted by: X Stryker at March 27, 2006 08:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NC-8: The Democratic challenger, Larry Kissell, has just given an interview on BlueNC (http://www.bluenc.com/node/1707?PHPSESSID=7e13da79636f0b7006b5d8e0ed904fc4) that discusses his plan of attack against the struggling Republican incumbent, who voted for CAFTA after saying he was completely opposed to it.
Posted by: TarGator at March 27, 2006 10:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Montana senate race: Love to heard more about what increasingly appears to be a D pick-up (and so many juicy details)........
Posted by: jflashmontana at March 27, 2006 01:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm getting more and more sucked in to the ID-01 race with Larry Grant. It's an open seat this term, and the numbers for Idaho's 1st district aren't as gloomy as one might think.
Posted by: yellownumber5 at March 27, 2006 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VA Sen - I think this race will get very interesting should Webb win the primary. No one outside of the state really understands the demographic shift going on in the state and how real it is. Virginia Republicans don't hold a large lead in terms of ID. As a matter of fact the latest Gallup poll on party ID shows Democrats with a slight edge. The reason Republicans do so well is because the Independents in the state lean more conservative than Liberal. That's why if you put up a straight moderate like Tim Kaine he wins by 6% whereas a liberal like Kerry loses by 8%. To illustrate this point look at the DC exurbs (Loudon, Prince William) and how they voted in the Governors race vs. 2004 presidential. Democrats can win in Virginia, they just can't be your typical north of Maryland Democrat.
VA 05 - Though I think Virgil Goode is the heavy favorite in my home district I do think this race will be more interesting to watch than normal. MZM scandal is heating up even more and local newspapers in Charlottesville, Roanoke, and Danville are actually starting to pay attention to the allegations. In my opinion Virgil wins this thing but his challanger breaks 40% and may reach as high as 45-48% should all the counties in the Charlottesville region swing as far left in this years election as we did in the race for the governor's mansion.
Posted by: UVA08 at March 27, 2006 02:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This isn't so much a race, but more of a general question to anyone in the know.
Does anyone know what happened to the Leave No District Behind PAC?
Their actblue page is active, but their website and blog are offline.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 27, 2006 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Leave No District Behind PAC
Was that one of Brigham's?
Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at March 27, 2006 06:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Re: WI-Gov, I would agree Mark and add that another fast growing region of the state (I think even faster than the Milw suburbs) is the area where St. Paul, Minn. is spilling into the state in Hudson. This could potentially hurt Democrats as well. I just hope voters understand the ramifications of electing the far-right Green.
I really wasn't overly worried about the race until Walker dropped out. I was counting on those two beating each other up and using up all their resources. The primary wouldn't have been until September, so imagine a summer of those two going at it and then about 6 weeks to go after Doyle. But props to Walker for stepping aside for the good of his party, you really don't see that a lot in politics (Katherine Harris).
Posted by: griswald11 at March 27, 2006 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
griswald, correct. St. Croix County is Wisconsin's fastest-growing...and at this point, sprawl from Minneapolis-St. Paul has extended into Polk and Pierce Counties as well, diluting Dem strength in what used to be Democratic strongholds. Winning Wisconsin is becoming more and more challenging for the good guys. Gore and Kerry's formula (huge numbers in Milwaukee and Madison, with a strong showing in the rural western counties) isn't gonna hold up if growth continues as it has in the exurban GOP strongholds. It's the same problem Minnesota is facing next door, except even more of an urgent challenge demographically.
I didn't know anything about Walker, but agree a nasty primary might have been preferable. On the other hand, Green will have to earn his headlines now that Walker won't be around to create them for him. Something can be said for that scenario as well. Only time will tell, but I agree that Green is a serious (and scary) threat.
Posted by: Mark at March 27, 2006 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
When it comes to Green, I feel pretty confident of our chances if you contrast and compare the leadership displayed by Doyle and the "leadership" displayed by Green.
Green being part of this current "Worst 109th Congress" isn't going to help him out.
Basically, when it comes down to it, Green probably doesn't have much to stand on when it comes to "Showing Leadership" in Congress.
If I had to pick between Green and Walker, I would pick Green. He has a larger weight on his record. And yes, you can tie in his votes for things like the Deficit "Reduction" Act to questioning how he would govern as a Governor.
And if that doesn't do enough, get him on the record about South Dakota-esque Abortion laws.
Posted by: RBH at March 28, 2006 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm interested in IL-17, now that I've heard that Democratic Rep. and Veterans advocate Lane Evans is set to retire due to Parkinson's disease. Bush got 48% of the vote in 2004, so this is one to keep an eye on. Anyone know who the Dems might field to keep this seat? The filing deadline has passed, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem (afterall, Lipinski was replaced by... Lipinksi... in 2004).
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 28, 2006 01:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment