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Tuesday, April 11, 2006

CA-50: Election Results Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Polls close in just a few minutes. However, as is usually the case, we probably won't have results for a while - perhaps not for an hour-and-a-half.

Results: SD County | SD Union Tribune | North Country Times

Christine Pelosi will be updating live from Busby HQ at Trail Mix. And Chris Bowers has promised to follow the results into the wee hours, if necessary, over at MyDD. As for me, I'll obviously be keeping a close eye, but tonight won't be a repeat performance of the Tracy-and-David tag-team duo for TX-28 - there's only so many frenetic "live bloggings" one can do in a lifetime.

UPDATE: Gah! Hard to resist the siren lure of live blogging. Results for early voting are in, showing Busby with 42% and Bilbray and Roach neck-and-neck at 14%. These might be the only results we see for a while. But if Busby is to reach 50%, she seriously has her work cut out for her. So far, 64,715 ballots have been cast. There are 360K RVs in the district, so that's an 18% turnout. I've put together a chart which shows how much of the remaining votes Busby would need, depending upon possible election-day turnouts:

If 20% turnout, 119% of election-day vote (ie, impossible)
If 25%, 70%
If 30%, 62%
If 35%, 58%
If 40%, 56%

You may want to check my math, but I think that's what it looks like. By way of comparison, Steve Young won only 25% of the early vote but won 35% of the election-day vote in the CA-48 special run-off. So large spreads are indeed possible, but, as you may recall, the configuration of that election was very unusual and rather different from what we've got today.

UPDATE: I'm headed to bed. This race seems likely headed for a run-off. But even if Busby were to win tonight, she'd still face another election in November. So please consider helping her out - she'll need it no matter what happens tonight.

Posted at 11:10 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

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Comments

Eh I hope we win this thing I don't have to wait another week for another special election to be called when a disgraced Republican resigns.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 11, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ok so with about 60K abstentee ballots counted Busby is at 42.23%.
In Calif, the early absentees always break for the republicans as does the first half of the incoming returns.
Should be interesting.

Posted by: Predictor at April 11, 2006 11:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

According to National Journal's Richard Cohen: "The off-year 2002 vote was about 160K, with about 290K in 2004. If today's vote will be closer to 100K, that suggests something less than strong grass-roots enthusiasm." (via http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/ )

160K out of 360K is 44% turnout
At 44% she'd need ~53%.

You'd think turnout would be higher, but we're not talking Presidential levels. Minimally, she'd need 52+% of the non-absentee vote. Unlikely but possible.

Posted by: PantsB at April 12, 2006 12:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have this weird, inexplicable feeling that my prediction of 44.9% is going to prove deadly accurate. 44.9%: it's what's for dinner.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 12, 2006 12:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, hotline is saying that Busby is 2000 votes OVER expectations.

Posted by: VirginiaBelle at April 12, 2006 12:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Where the hell can I find the election returns? They're not on the SD County site, but people at DailyKos sure seem to be finding them.

Posted by: Mark at April 12, 2006 01:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Try these links:
http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/results/index.html

Busby's currently at 43.28%
Bilbray's at 15.32%
Roach is at 14.31%
Kaloogian!!! is at 7.40%
With 66% of the precincts reporting.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 12, 2006 02:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like Busby got slightly less than 44%. She barely overperformed Kerry. Not a good sign.

Posted by: Mark at April 12, 2006 10:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well that was disappointing. I looked at my original prediction, the one I didn't post that put Busby at 46% and thought, this is like taking a standardized test and changing your answer. My idealistic prediction of Busby topping 50% was just that too idealistic.
There are 10,000 votes still to be counted and Bilbray leads Roach by 880 votes. That may be too large a gap for Roach to overcome, but it may put Roach in a frame of mind to continue his quest in the June Primary Election. This should confuse the average voter. The Gop spin is that everyone who finished below Bilbray will just stop and align with Bilbray, I don't see Roach doing this. Should Kaloogian and Morrow throw in the towel, would they throw it towards Roach or Bilbray?
On one hand Roach's rightwing tilt would seem to make him a better target for Busby, however he has a personal fortune to bankroll the June Primary run and subsequent election. Bilbray, though more moderate could be tainted by his 6 year position as a lobbyist and possible painting of him as a Washington insider, with a record on the books open for attack.
I stated that if Busby polled less than 45%, it would not be a good sign, she is at 43.92%.
The June runoff coincides with the Statewide Primary and two ballot initiatives. It is still my contention that given the fact that the Statewide Primary races of interest are all on the Dem side, Dem turnout will be high, Gop turnout relatively low. As to whether or not this could put Busby over the top, my idealism is tempered by Busby not hitting that 45% figure. Granted Chris Young (D) + Busby = 45.24%, however, alot is going to depend on whether or not Roach et al continue their fight against Bilbray or just walk away (let alone any changes produced by those 10,000 votes yet to be counted).
Next time I'll be less optimistic in my predictions, but will continue to give more weight to Survey/Usa over Datamar. LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at April 12, 2006 11:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mary Landrieu boosted her numbers in the 2002 Louisiana Senate runoff from 48% to 52%, so Busby is not done yet. Whether Bilbray or Roach ends up getting the victory, they have much further to go from 15% to 50.1% than Busby does from 44%. Still, a disappointment considering her apparent momentum at the close.

Predictably, Jay Cost of RealClearPolitics is spinning this as a Democratic defeat after setting expectations impossibly high yesterday....http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/04/busby_finishes_under_50_in_ca.html

Posted by: Mark at April 12, 2006 11:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Agree, Busby is not done yet and if the top Gop candidates continue with a contentious Primary, it will be a big help.
It was difficult not to be optimistic given Cunningham, DeLay, Plamegate, Bush's numbers and even the large spike in gas prices the week before the election, plus both polling sources were consistent in showing momentum to Busby.

Real Clear politics is a good source for stat info, but not surpised on their spin given their politics. I don't suppose they focused on the fact that Bilbray barely squeaked by Roach with that race essentially undecided until 10,000 ballots are counted..LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at April 12, 2006 11:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment