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Tuesday, April 11, 2006

CA-50: Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Today's the day.

• SUSA just released a new poll putting Busby at 47%. An outright victory could just happen, but the pessimist (realist?) in me thinks a finish in the 40s is more likely.

• Chris Bowers has a detailed post here, titled "What To Look For In CA-50 Tonight." He explores his predictions and the shape of the GOP field.

• Polls close at 8pm Pacific (11pm Eastern). Sign On San Diego, the official site of the SD Union Tribune, says it will carry live results, but they haven't posted a specific link yet. If you know of any other sites which will carry live results, please post them in comments.

Please use this thread to discuss any and everything pertaining to today's election. Go Francine!

UPDATE: SD County official election returns site is here. (Thanks to Predictor.)

Posted at 02:39 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

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Comments

I'm guessing somewhere in the 40s, too, but I have a final exam in a history class tomorrow, so I'm going to do my best to avoid the internet tonight.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 11, 2006 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

47% in a race with 98% decided is pretty good.

Basically that means that Busby is going to surprise a lot of people tonight.

Posted by: RBH at April 11, 2006 03:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Regardless of how tonight and the possible run-off turn out, I'd like to say "well done" to everyone involved in her campaign. It seems like they've ran a nearly-flawless campaign, and are in much better position now than anyone expected even a month ago. My guess is this does go to a run-off. If it's Busby-Bilbray she's going to have a tough time of it, but if it's Busby-Anyone Else, I really like her changes in another Southern California district that maybe isn't as red as it used to be.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at April 11, 2006 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here is the San Diego County Elections Results Link:
http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

Because of the polling by Survey/Usa, the reason for the departure of Duke Cunningham, the $ poured into the race and national attention, the fact that Busby has a 3 yr head start, the fact that the Republicans have been battering each other in the District, the whole national scene - De Lay, Plamegate, the fact that Busby is a former republican and has gotten cross party endorsements, the fact that Roach has the $ and, Barbara Boxer came within a few hundred votes of winning this District in 2004:

Busby 50.5%
Roach 15%
Bilbray 13.5%
Kaloogian 8%
Morrow 5%
Others 8%

Should Busby not hit the magic 50% she will defeat Roach or Bilbray or any other in June (on the same date as the Statewide Primary).
If Busby polls less than 45%, it will not be a good sign.

Posted by: Predictor at April 11, 2006 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll guess 46% for Busby tonight. If Barbara Boxer couldn't pull off a majority in 2004, a Democrat winning 50% in a crowded field seems overly optimistic. Should be exciting though. Every election/special election night gets my adrenaline flowing since the advent of online vote tracking.

Posted by: Mark at April 11, 2006 05:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I see Busby finishing around 48%. If, however, the people of this district realize how corrupt Duke Cunningham was she'll finish with 50.7%. Now if it does go on into a runoff, and Roach is the Republican candidate Busby will finish with 53% of the vote. It doesn't really matter what happens tonight, I'm pretty sure Busby has won.

Posted by: Craig at April 11, 2006 06:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D-50:
353,000 registered voters and 112,000 ABTee ballots issued. (SD Tribune source).

Posted by: Predictor at April 11, 2006 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I heard that only 60,000 of those ballots were submitted, though.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 11, 2006 06:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 60000 is as of yesterday. Remember that they can arrive today by post, or be dropped off at any polling place or the registrar's office.

Posted by: Alex at April 11, 2006 07:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Couple things.

1. This election is a hallmark, from here we'll have a better idea where we are - therfore we don't know where we are.

2. Ditto what I see Alex has said.

3. I've just gotten home from work, I have two kids that need dinner, put to bed, dishes washed, etc. If I was a Republican and you called me last night I would probably say I was going to vote. Today....

Posted by: chuckles at April 11, 2006 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm prayin' and hopin' for over 50s. But my gut says mid to low fortires. We will all see. I just put a Busby for Congress sign (which I printed from her site) next to my computer. I am going to be here all night.

Posted by: DFLer22 at April 11, 2006 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Results from the first four districts reporting (out of 445, or .09%):

Busby 42.23
Bilbray 14.15
Roach 13.92
Kaloogian 7.45
Morrow 7.26
Uke 4.19
Earnest 2.67
Hauf 1.72
Young 1.64

Young is the other Democrat in the race. Do you think he'll have a large enough impact to hurt Busby? I know these results are WAY early to predict anything, but 1.64 can potentially be significant.

Posted by: CarolinaBlue at April 11, 2006 11:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Correction

Those are absentee results only.

Posted by: CarolinaBlue at April 11, 2006 11:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment