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Wednesday, April 26, 2006

CQ Politics Changes Ratings on Six House Races

Posted by DavidNYC

And they're all good news for us:

Indiana’s 8th District (Incumbent — Republican John Hostettler): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

Iowa’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Jim Leach): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Kentucky’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Ron Lewis): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

New York’s 19th District (Incumbent — Republican Sue W. Kelly): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

New York’s 25th District (Incumbent — Republican James T. Walsh): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

West Virginia’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Shelley Moore Capito): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Of course, only the first race here is a toss-up, and "Republican Favored" is still a pretty big mountain to climb. But that fact that all of these are shifting toward us at once - and none, apparently, in the opposite direction - is an encouraging sign.

Posted at 02:54 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Comments

I wonder what prompted the change in IA-02. I can't imagine liberal Republican Jim Leach will go unless it's on his terms. We had our chance in 2002 when he inherited the uber-Democratic southeast corner of Iowa after redistricting. Had he not been one of six Republicans to vote against war authorization, he may have been upended then. The good news is that Leach has been around so long that his retirement can't be too far into the future. The bad news is that his current heavily-Dem district will be reconfigured by 2012 when Iowa loses ANOTHER Congressional seat. The current district lines in Iowa are about as favorable to the Dems as could be possibly be drawn, centrallizing all the western Iowa hard-righters into one ugly district. Unfortunately, it doesn't look as though we're gonna be able to take advantage of the map until Leach and Latham bow out.

Posted by: Mark at April 26, 2006 03:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not surprised about NY-19 and and NY-25 - no NY Republican should be considered safe this cycle. Capito, though, THAT is a surprise.

Posted by: X Stryker at April 26, 2006 04:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

a few days before this storm they also moved WYOMING AT LARGE to Republican favored from republican safe. That was the shocker. Seriously let's see if the democratic gorvernor can get some coat tails. :D

However they did downgrade NC-11 from Republican likely to Republican favored. Apparently they liked Tim Dunn and thought a primary would have been good (I agree it would have been good as well).

Final Conclusion: For every 1 seat the republicans the republicans can make some headway on, seven slip away.

Posted by: trowaman at April 26, 2006 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

capito isnt that much of a suprise. she tries to be a philly suburbs esque moderate republican but its all a charade, just like all of the other 'moderates' in the main street coaltion. i mean cmon, isakson is in the MSC. but callaghan is a strong opponent, former head of the WV dem party

Posted by: yomoma2424 at April 26, 2006 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment