Swing State Project

« RI-Sen: Sierra Club Endorsing Chafee (R) | Main | DNC 50-State Canvas Is Next Weekend »

Friday, April 21, 2006

CT-Sen: Lieberman Now in Negative Territory Among "Liberals"

Posted by DavidNYC

Via LamontBlog, something rather non-trivial:

Self-indentified "liberals" now oppose Lieberman by a 49-46 margin - and as you can see, the current spread represents just the latest point in a pretty clear trend. As LamontBlog notes - and as I've argued before - self-ID'ing liberals are the closest stand-in you are likely to find for "likely Democratic primary voters."

Because I had to deal with so many frustrating misunderstandings when I first made this observation, let me say the following: No, it's not a perfect stand-in for Dem primary voters; no, not all primary voters are self-ID'ing liberals; yes, the composition of voters in the primary is going to be hard to predict because of the unusual forces at work here; and no, a narrow disapproval rating does not mean Joe Lieberman is going to lose.

In fact, pretty much no matter what happens between now and August, barring Lieberman dropping out, the odds are very much against Lamont. As you all probably know, sitting senators almost never, ever lose in primary challenges. The few examples in the past thirty years all involved odd-ball circumstances, none of which obtain here. Nonetheless, this new SUSA poll is still good news for Ned. And just to show you we're not the loony left, Lieberman's support has taken a sizable recent hit among "moderates" and "independents" as well, especially among the latter.

One other detail: I believe that CT has a closed primary system - ie, you can only vote in your own party's primary. Some people have suggested that Republican Joe-lovers (and they are legion) might switch parties just to cast a vote for him in the primary. Fortunately, the GOP primary just became competitive, as Alan Schlesinger joined Paul Streitz in seeking the Republican nomination. I don't know how much of a draw this race will be, but at least there are two GOPers who dislike Joe enough to want to run against him.

UPDATE: The more I think about it, the more significant this is in my mind. Look again at Lieberman's performance among indies. Notice anything? It stands at 53-41 - a point worse than his approval among Dems! And Joe didn't just "take a hit" (as I say above) with independents - he utterly cratered in the last month. He was at 63-29, a 34-point spread. Since then, he dropped a whopping 22 points to just +12 - his fall with Dems was only from +21 to +13. I'm not sure what bearing this might have on the primary, but the numbers are pretty stunning in my mind.

Posted at 12:27 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2297

Comments

http://www.joementum.com/2006/04/20/pollmentum/

Posted by: Samson at April 21, 2006 09:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I got to admit I'm kind of tired of all the attacks on Lieberman. Even if he is a bad Democrat and rags on us on TV, his races gets FAR more attention than a lot of important Senate races with GOP incumbents. Look at Missouri or Tennessee; both present great pick up opportunities yet they are not talked about near as much as Lieberman/Lamont. And remember Senator Lamont does not bring us one vote closer to Senate Majority Leader Reid.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at April 21, 2006 01:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David,
I posted a diary reviewing a number of trends in SUSA report by comparing it to last month's, with a review of the "Winners and Losers". Check it out:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/4/21/13172/4876

I track the change in net approval over the past month for seats up in 2006, presidential contenders, and Time's list of 10 Best & 5 Worst Senators (AKA the Kiss of Death). I also tracked statewide trends (GOP down in VA, MS, NE, NH, Dems down in NJ, MI).

Posted by: X Stryker at April 21, 2006 02:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, I guess those two posts (including this one) that I've written on CT-Sen in the past two-and-a-half months are way overkill.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 21, 2006 02:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Who here besides the protest poster believes we have a chance of winning TN?

Posted by: bruhrabbit at April 21, 2006 04:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

bruhrabbit, we "have a chance" in Tennessee....at least insofar as Ron Kirk "had a chance" in Texas back in 2002. Alot of things will have to go wrong for the eventual Republican candidate, combined with a pitch-perfect campaign by Ford, for this seat to go blue given the demographics of the race. I'd give Ford less than one-in-ten odds, but I think it's worth pumping some money his way until we get a clearer picture of which direction the race could be heading.

Posted by: Mark at April 21, 2006 10:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC,

If you want a look into the future put up a comparitive chart of Liebermans numbers from 2003 for the same months(presidential Primary season) in CT and run it until June.

The only difference is Lieberman won't be able to disappear after June in 2006 like he did in 2003 so the downward trend will continue and escalate.

Liebermans problem for a long time now has been the more the voters in CT see and hear him the lower his approval goes.His Shtick just doesn't sell any longer,period.

Posted by: ctkeith at April 22, 2006 02:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment