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Tuesday, April 18, 2006
House 2006: Challengers Outraising Incumbents
Posted by DavidNYCContinuing with the theme of my earlier post - and aided by numerous commenters - here are some Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents in the first quarter (alphabetically by district):
CT-02
Courtney (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $275K/$674K
Simmons (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $222K/$894KCT-04
Farrell (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $515K/$832K
Shays (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $354K/$1.1MFL-16
Mahoney (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $173K/$303K
Foley (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $154K/$2.4MMN-01
Walz (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $127K/$124K
Gutknecht (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $105K/$680KNE-01
Moul (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $210K/$179K
Fortenberry (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $85K/$416KNH-01
Craig (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $157K/$151K
Bradley (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $104K/$339KNH-02
Hodes (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $146K/$232K
Bass (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $102K/$301KNY-29
Massa (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $93K/$121K
Kuhl (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $82K/$440KPA-06
Lois Murphy (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $499K/$982K
Gerlach (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $266K/$1.2MPA-08
Patrick Murphy (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $251K/$327K
Fitzpatrick (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $234K/$1.3MWA-08
Burner (D) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $334K/$357K
Reichert (R, inc.) 1Q Raised/Cash-on-Hand: $268K/$725K
A bunch more came awfully close, like Sestak (PA-07), Madrid (NM-01) and Gillibrand (NY-20). Great work in CT, the Philly 'burbs and New Hampshire. Already, the no-brainer Northeast Strategy shows its worth. However, a strong cautionary note: As you can see, every last one of these challengers trails in cash-on-hand, including many by large margins. One strong fundraising quarter won't be enough to unseat these incumbents - nothing less than non-stop hard work from now until November will cut it.
There is one race on this list that I'd actually like to comment on specifically, NY-29. I can't say I am terribly impressed with Massa's numbers - they're alright, but not great. However, I've got to believe that media is cheap in the Southern Tier, so perhaps it doesn't take a lot of cash to raise name rec. And in fairness to Massa, he doesn't have quite the access to national sources of money the way a bunch of other names here do.
But the real amazing figure is Kuhl's showing - a mere eighty-two grand? Eight-two grand? For a potentially endangered freshman incumbent? That's beyond pathetic. But what makes it even more embarrassing is that Bush visited the district during the quarter, specifically at Kuhl's request! I can only hope that Karl Rove is mighty pissed right now, seeing as he wasted Bush's time on such an obvious slacker.
Anyhow, got any more like this?
(FEC filings available here.)
UPDATE: I just added two more races to this list, WA-08 and NE-01. The latter is definitely something of a surprise - I'm guessing that Fortenberry just isn't taking this race seriously, even though Maxine Moul is a former Lt. Gov.
Posted at 05:00 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati
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Comments
Yeah, Al Weed in VA-05. As I commented here, Al raised $65,333.61 this quarter, while Virgil "MZM-Scandal" Goode raised only $51,228.44.
Posted by: msnook ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at April 18, 2006 05:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Wow, Moul's numbers are pretty damn impressive. I knew she'd at least be a semi-serious challenger, but that's really great to hear.
As I posted in another thread...
NJ-05:
Paul Aronsohn (D) Raised/CoH $213,994.83/$135125.31
Scott Garrett (R, inc.) Raised/CoH $139,693/$375,677
Aronsohn was a former aide to McGreevey.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 18, 2006 05:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It occurs to me that, as great as this northeastern strategy is for a variety of reasons, it's expensive to run campaigns there. In the south side of VA-05 it's cheap as hell to get into the media markets voters are paying attention to. There are local weeklies that people read back to front that cost almost nothing to get into.
I'd like to see someone smarter than myself start to look into what regions and CD's are cheaper to run in, and weigh that into where our highest priorities are, in terms of dollars to give. It'll only take about $700k to be competitive in VA-05, so why shouldn't out-of-district donors perceive their dollar as going twice as far than in a district where you need $1.4M?
Posted by: msnook at April 18, 2006 05:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in Kuhl's district and have been watching Massa's campaign activities for a few months. While he is very actively campaigning in the republican strongholds (southern tier), he has made little effort to court voters in the Rochester suburbs. From what I can recall, Massa has only been endorsed by local county dems and had sparse meet n greets in the Rochester area. No major speeches or events to my knowledge.
I know the election is months away, but I am deeply concerned. This might be the 'southern tier' effect. The last 3 dem candidates for the district were all Southern Tier. The population of this congressional district is about 65% in the Rochester suburbs. The 3 dem challengers to Kuhl and Amo campaigned in the Roch suburbs were LATE in my opinion. I just sent a critical (though positive) email to Massa's campaign 'encouraging' the campaign staff to be more aggressive in the Roch. suburbs. Another critigue is that Massa has a shoe string staff and no campaign offices in the Roch. suburbs. Hopefuly, Massa wont be a precursor of previous dem candidate gaffes.
Posted by: optimusprime at April 18, 2006 07:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What media market would NY-29 be in? Buffalo? Rochester? Both?
Any word on whether Darcy Burner will be using any of her own fortune in the WA-08 race? That would certainly be a shot in the arm there if she did.
Foley's soft fundraising numbers this quarter bodes poorly for his prospects of preparing for a Senate run in place of Katherine Harris. How can we get so lucky to have that race turn into a freebie?
And excellent news about NE-01. Since Fortenberry's only a one-term incumbent, that seat was always vaguely on my radar screen, but I didn't realize Moul was a former Lieutenant Governor. Wouldn't it something if we could carve out a Democratic Congressional seat in Nebraska to go along with our matched set in the Dakotas?
Posted by: Mark at April 18, 2006 07:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
He still has a ways to go to catch up in COH, but Shane Sklar in TX-14 tells me that he's outraised Rep. Ron Paul since the March 7 Texas primaries. He's got an aggressive fundraising goal for the second quarter, so keep an eye on him.
Posted by: Charles Kuffner at April 18, 2006 08:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NE-01 is also the "softest" of the three Nebraska seats--I think Fortenberry's opponent pulled around 43% last time to his 54%. We're actually blessed to see three better-than-average challengers in Nebraska this year. Scott Kleeb raised $101k in the first Quarter for NE-01 (an open seat), and Jim Esch raised $90k. Both have raised in the ballpark of $200k total, which is pretty good for Nebraska. (Donna Anderson, who campaigned for NE-01 in 2004, raised barely over $10k in the entire campaign.) Moul, in particular, has raised twice as much as Coneally did in the 1Q of 2004.
But, it should be said that Nancy Thompson raised a ton in 2004 (about $880k) and only pulled 36% of the vote in NE-02.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 18, 2006 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NY-25 Dan Maffei out raised eighteen year incumbant Walsh $206,000 to $190,096 for the quarter. However Walsh has a bit over $500,000 on hand and Maffei only started running in November. Maffei has a challenger who is essentially self funding her campaign, but her own county commitee (Monroe) endorsed Maffei (Onondaga, which is also Walsh's home county). This race has a lot of potential as Maffei is a former aide to Rangel and Brady and is getting support from other national Dems.
Posted by: sloth at April 18, 2006 08:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry, don't know which numbers are right, but I have also read that its Maffei $106K Walsh $78K for the quarter. COH Maffei $175K to Walsh's $500K.
Posted by: sloth at April 18, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It's good that we are outraiseing them but the COH numbers don't look to great worried about that.
Posted by: D in FL. at April 18, 2006 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
it's not a district I hear people talking about, but David Gill in IL-15 has outraised three term incumbent Tim Johnson (R) $81,587 - $55,094 in terms of individual donations. Gill will not accept corporate donations, though, so that's given Johnson the overall advantage at $139,290 – $86,221. Still, for someone with political experience vs. a three term congressman, that's pretty incredible. Also, the trend lines look good too - Johnson is only at 26% of his hauls for '02 and '04, while Gill has already raised more than 80% of his '04 total. Johnson's not an overly remarkable congressman, so with a little luck this could be a "sleeper" race on election day (sorrry for the fantasy baseball term there).
Posted by: DontTreadonMe at April 19, 2006 02:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have heard from two different sources that Massa is having difficulty adjusting to the need to personally solicit funds which is why his fundraising numbers are lacking. Two groups in NYC have been involved in fund raisers for him, and one said they had no plans to bring him back for another.
Posted by: jonahinnyc at April 19, 2006 10:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Don't count us Nebraskans out! Scott Kleeb in NE-03 (the western 7/8 of the entire state!) is coming on VERY strong. Scott out-raised Jay Vavricek, mayor of Grand Island (NE’s 3rd largest city) and a leading contender for the Republican nomination, by a 2-to-1 ratio in the first-quarter of 2006! He also out-raised Republican candidate John Hanson by a considerable margin. The only Republican candidate (there are 5+) he did not out-raise is Adrian Smith, a Rolex-wearing, Hummer-driving, ultra-arch-conservative with support from the wacko Club for Growth special interest group.
This is an unprecedented sign of strength for a non-Republican candidate in our District. Though we are pretty independent-minded out here (last viable Dem lost by less than a per cent!) and Scott is a completely new and exciting and different type of candidate for us - he’s young and just out of Yale with a PhD in history (dissertation on Western Cattle Ranching). I mean, how can all these stodgy NE businessmen compete with a bull-riding, cattle-branding, internationally-raised PhD who can hang with the rancher, entreprenuer, educator, student, and all in-between? Plus, he’s easy-on-the-eye if you know what I mean! (http://www.scottkleeb.com)
Whichever of the Republican candidates who ultimately wins will have a VERY hard time in head-to-head competition based on sheer intelligence and personability. This Congressional race will be one to watch and probably one of the most hotly contested races of the 2006 election season.
Like I said, don’t count us out! We’re all red now, but come this December I see a huge chunk of blue out here in the middle of a sea of red!
Posted by: HistoryChickInNebraska at April 19, 2006 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey, JonahinNYC. Any chance you could e-mail me? davidnyc -at- swingstateproject.com. Thanks!
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 19, 2006 01:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I know Scott Kleeb, and I hate to say it but I think we'd be better off without him in Congress. He's capable of being a great leader (I've seen him take charge of an unruly bunch of students in a project group and effortlessly get them all back on track), but when push comes to shove, he tends to do and say what makes him look cool with his friends rather than what's right. Sometimes at Yale he was even known to give his "allies" a dressing down in front of the opposition. It'd be great to pick off such a Republican district, but we really don't need another Joe Lieberman, thank you very much!
Posted by: RamblinDave at April 20, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That seems like pretty thin evidence to brand someone as a Joe Lieberman. I'd also add that one "Joe Lieberman" in the House would have about a hundredth the impact that the real Joe Lieberman has in the Senate.
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 20, 2006 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I doubt you'd say that if you knew the full story of what he did and didn't do. I don't feel like airing my dirty laundry here in full, but suffice to say...I was a leader in the grad student unionization push in our department, Scott was nominally on our side, and he could have been tremendously helpful to our cause. But most of the time, he did nothing at best and tangible damage at worst. Which would be okay if he'd opposed our cause, but it's pretty low of a nominal supporter to be that way.
Posted by: RamblinDave at April 20, 2006 07:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
well its because even in many liberals opinions, that graduate students should not be unionized. if you dont like what they are making/having you do, then dont get a degree from that university. its not a right to get a degree there, its a prerequisite in a lot of fashions for them to be able to say you can get a degree.
Posted by: yomoma2424 at April 20, 2006 08:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
One thing we aren't going to have on this site is a debate on the merits of grad student unionization. Start a diary at DailyKos if you'd like to discuss that topic, but not here.
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 20, 2006 08:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment