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Thursday, April 13, 2006

House 2006: Where Our Targets Are (For Starters)

Posted by DavidNYC

This is going to be a brief companion piece to my entry the other day on Dem-held, R-voting seats. Here, conversely, I'll talk about GOP-held, Dem-voting seats. Unfortunately, there are a lot fewer of these (25) than the reverse (of which there are 41):

State	CD	Member	PVI
CT	2	Simmons	D+7.6
IA	2	Leach	D+6.9
DE	AL	Castle	D+6.5
CT	4	Shays	D+5.4
IA	1	Nussle	D+4.8
NJ	2	Lobiondo	D+4.0
CT	5	Johnson	D+3.7
FL	22	Shaw	D+3.6
IL	10	Kirk	D+3.6
PA	7	Weldon	D+3.6
NY	25	Walsh	D+3.4
PA	8	Fitzpatrick	D+3.4
NJ	3	Saxton	D+3.3
NH	2	Bass	D+2.7
NM	1	Wilson	D+2.4
KY	3	Northup	D+2.4
WA	8	Reichert	D+2.3
CO	7	Beauprez	D+2.3
PA	6	Gerlach	D+2.2
NY	3	King	D+2.1
PA	15	Dent	D+1.6
FL	10	Young	D+1.1
NV	3	Porter	D+1.0
NY	13	Fossella	D+0.8
IA	4	Latham	D+0.4

Note: Districts where members' names are in italics were won by Bush in 2004 (though they still retain a D+ PVI).

Despite the fact that it's much shorter than its GOP counterpart, many of our hottest targets are on this list: Rob Simmons in CT-02; Chris Shays in CT-04; Jim Nussle's open seat in IA-01; Clay Shaw in FL-22; Heather Wilson in NM-01; Bob Beauprez's open seat in CO-07 and Jim Gerlach in PA-06. Thanks in part to strong fundraising, a number of other races on this list have lately heated up, including Joe Sestak vs. Curt Weldon, our newest favorite nutter, in PA-07; Patrick Murphy vs. Mike Fitzpatrick in PA-08; and Darcy Burner vs. Dave Reichert. And a few more competitive contenders might yet emerge, such as Paul Hodes in NH-02, Tessa Hafen in NV-03 and Chris Murphy in CT-05.

Chris Bowers - who today approvingly writes of a "northeast strategy" - notes, however, that a number of these seats are going untargeted. Some of these districts are home to super-popular, seriously entrenched incumbents, like Mike Castle in DE-AL or Jim Leach in IA-02. As far as the other seats go, I really don't believe it's for lack of effort on the part of Rahm Emanuel or local leaders. Dick Gephardt promised everyone the moon every cycle for a decade. After ten years of failing to recapture the majority, I can understand why top-drawer potential candidates would be gun-shy. I mean, do you really think we don't have a candidate in 50-50 PA-15 for lack of trying?

But Chris is right - these are races we need to be pounding. It just makes too much sense not to go after Dem-leaning districts. Some of these districts might not be worth pursuing until certain incumbents retire, but otherwise, this group of seats (over half of which are in the northeast) should be prime targets. Guys like LoBiondo and Walsh should definitely be in our crosshairs.

A far wiser man than I told me that if the Dems have a good year this year (something I'm not yet convinced of), we'll have a much easier time recruiting in 2008. I think that's probably right. And then we can really let `er rip.

P.S. Just a quick aside: Many solid Dem targets, including a few bona fide top-tier races, are not on this list. I hope to get to those in a later post, but for now, I'll just note that Democrats are clearly better at making inroads into Republican territory than vice-versa, as this post and its companion demonstrate.

Posted at 09:01 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Comments

If you are thinking about a Northeast strategy then you should check this out.

NH:01 Candidate Jim Craig has raised over $150,000 in the 4 weeks he has been a candidate. Craig is the NH House Dem Leader. It is very possible to win both House seats in NH and defeat both Bass and Bradley. Both of them have been rubber stamps for Bush who is very unpopular, mid-30's in the latest Granite State Poll. In addition, Governor Lynch is enjoying immense popularity with a 72% approval rating and expected to easily win re-election. Can anyone say coattails? Lynch is sure to help the rest of the ticket in NH.

Posted by: itstime at April 13, 2006 10:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

De-AL is definitely untouchable right now. There's no way we could beat Mike Castle. To be honest, he's a good guy. Sure, he isn't a Democrat, but he's not bad either. He's very well liked here. When he retires, we should be able to pick up this seat. I just hope he doesn't go after a Senate seat. Some troubling things are that Dover and south, is so hard-core Republican right now. Dover AFB probably has something to do with it. If I see one more W sticker on a brand new car, I'm going to scream! The DE Republican party still gives those things out like badges of honor...yuck...

Posted by: Downstate Delaware Liberal at April 13, 2006 11:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the combination of Craig and Hodes could be very interesting in NH, especially with, as you point out, Lynch at the top of the ticket.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 13, 2006 11:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DDL,

Sounds like you need an "F" the president sticker! Great for wiping that smug look off of the SUV driver's face.

On another topic...Could someone please explain to me what the story is in PA-15? Wasn't this Pat Toomey's old district? Why does this district keep voting for republican nutjobs? I don't know about Dent, but we all know how crazy Grover Norquist's buddy was. So if the district went for Bush, why hasn't it gone for a Dem rep? Why'd they vote for Toomey in the first place?

Posted by: nada at April 14, 2006 08:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DDL - I think I'm going to blog about Castle's challenger, Dennis Spivack, on Daily Kos this weekend. At the very least, we need to give Castle a reason to spend some of his campaign cash so he doesn't hand it over to Gerlach and Weldon or something. As president of the Main Street Republican Partnership, he's probably going to be working hard to help some our top-targeted races keep their seats.

Posted by: X Stryker at April 14, 2006 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Agreed on the northeast strategy, which would include not only the districts listed here, but also other Northeast districts that are balanced but ever-so-slightly Republican, especially the slew of districts in NY where Spitzer and Clinton will be competing with each other to get to 65%.

As for Delaware, an anecdote worth remembering. When Gephardt spoke with RonK and explained to him that he had been wrong in supporting Bush on the IWR, Gephardt dismissed moderate Republicans, but singled out Castle for praise.

Posted by: DHinMICH at April 14, 2006 11:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On Senators to! Chafee is in big trouble which is good and RI is the second most Blue in the country. But i'm kind of annoyed that we aren't even trying in Maine we could have a shot there if a good Democrat got up and ran. Oh and we seem to be doing well in PA to still I wish we had a less DINO type candidate running there.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 14, 2006 12:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I had never realized that LoBiondo ran against the top of the ticket in NJ-02. I always think of it as the Repub So. Jersey beach communities but inland is apparently Dem. He is someone we should definately go after.

There is no doubt that picking up seats even if we don't win the House will help recruiting in 2008. Politicians rarely like to go on what they view as losing missions.

Another thought on some of our recruiting issues is that we have not done well on the State Legislative level in general over the last decade weakening the "farm team" for Congress. We started to reverse that trend in 2004 and if that continues in 2006 and beyond we will be better positioned to win and hold seats all over the country.

Posted by: John Mills at April 14, 2006 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The New York Times has an article today that profiles Republican House targets, particularly John Spratt of SC-05. Their oppressive firewall kept me out, but if anyone gets the chance to read it, feel free to share if there's anything worthwhile to mention in it. I can't understand why the GOP thinks they have a shot at this, so I'm eager to learn the logic being applied here.

Posted by: Mark at April 14, 2006 02:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark - I read the article. The district is trending Repub and has been for a while so they are making a push for it. Spratt's opponent is a wealthy real estate guy who is a member of the state legislature. The general consensus seemed to be that Spratt would win but once he retired the Repubs would take the district.

Posted by: John Mills at April 14, 2006 02:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark,

The GOP almost certainly doesn't think they can knock off Spratt or just about any other established Dem. They're just feeding that story to the press to try to alter the dominant narrative, which is that the Repubs are vulnerable, and the question is only how many Repubs will the Dems take out.

Posted by: DHinMICH at April 14, 2006 02:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D, Snowe's approval ratings are in the 70's. No one except the most partisan Dems and a few wing nuts are unhappy with her. Chaffee is pretty well liked, but his ratings are stilll mediocre and he's getting a credible challenger from the right.

I look at this list, and the 12th on that list, PA-08 is IMO a bellweather of some sorts. This is a district that no Republican Pres. candidate since Bush 41 in 88 carried, we have a young, charismatic candidate with an impressive resume running against a Freshman congressman who has done little positive in his 2 years and has a rubber stamp record.

Posted by: safi at April 14, 2006 06:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

But i'm kind of annoyed that we aren't even trying in Maine we could have a shot there if a good Democrat got up and ran.

We did have a good Democrat who got up and ran in 2000. The sitting president of the state senate who was thought to have a golden future in state politics. He got 31% of the vote. It was such a bad beating that he is done forever in Maine politics.

I can understand why nobody wants to wreck their future on a suicide run this time around.

Posted by: Jay at April 15, 2006 08:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

X Stryker, that sounds like a good idea. While I do think Castle is generally good, just like you said I don't want his cash to go towards other "moderate" Republicans. Sad thing is, Castle is moderate, but let's face it, hardly other Republicans aren't truely moderate. I may volunteer for the Spivack campaign at some point this summer.

If you're from Delaware, do you know anything about the Smyrna mayoral election fiasco last year? It'd be nice to tie Castle to supporting the (Republican) mayor who literally stole the election. That'd at least get some Spivack votes in roughly 50/50 Smyrna/Clayton area.

Posted by: Downstate Delaware Liberal at April 15, 2006 12:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nada, I already have a W with the international no symbol through it on my car. :) I see quite a lot of them upstate, and of course a lot of real W's downstate. I think we are the most polarized north (D) vs. south (R) state in the union.

Posted by: Downstate Delaware Liberal at April 15, 2006 12:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think we are the most polarized north (D) vs. south (R) state in the union.

DDL: Why is that? You mentioned Dover AFB earlier, but are there other historical reasons at play here?

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 15, 2006 02:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maine, re: Jay-
In the 1994 Gov Race Susan Collins-R finished a dismal 3rd behind Angus King-I & Joe Brennan-D and managed to comeback and win the US Senate seat in 1996.
As long as Collins & Snowe continue to show their Margaret Chase Smith style of independence, they will continue to be re-elected.
During the timeperiod King would have been the only candidate to have had a chance against either of them.

Posted by: Predictor at April 15, 2006 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In the 1994 Gov Race Susan Collins-R finished a dismal 3rd behind Angus King-I & Joe Brennan-D and managed to comeback and win the US Senate seat in 1996.

There's a difference between losing credibly and being humiliated, and I would say that Lawrence's experience in 2000 has throttled any enthusiasm to be the next one in the barrel. As far as Collins' recovery, I would say that that kind of comeback from the political dead is the rare exception and not the rule.

Posted by: Jay at April 16, 2006 11:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I know I'm a bit late to the thread, but we have a candidate that is raising pretty good money in NY 25, Dan Maffei. Walsh is a long time incumbant who doesn't really seem to do much. This seat will be a tough victory for the Dems, but it is certainly possible.

Posted by: sloth at April 17, 2006 08:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, I'm not an expert on Delaware politics and will not be able to answer the north-south polarization as well as DDL most likely could, but when you look at northern Delaware, it's basically an extension of metropolitan Philadelphia, which has been trending Democrat for more than a decade. Just like the more rural regions of eastern Pennsylvania and northeastern Maryland, southern Delaware has been far slower to adapt to the Democratic Party than anything directly connected to metropolitan Philly.

Posted by: Mark at April 17, 2006 10:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment