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Wednesday, April 19, 2006
NE-01: Some More Thoughts on Moul
Posted by DavidNYCReader J., a former Nebraskan who's worked for Maxine Moul in the past, writes in with some good local color on the unexpectedly competitive race in NE-01:
The district is demographically split between rural and urban with Lincoln as the urban base. In the past Dems suffered two ailments, first they weren’t able to cross over between the two demographics, either the candidates represented the urban portion and were trounced in the ruralarea - or they came from the rural area and didn’t get the turnout push they needed in Lincoln. Second, until 2004 the area was represented by a well respected, moderate, entrenched incumbent Rep. Doug Bereuter. Rep. Bereuter had a virtual lock on the district for 26 years.
That lock is gone. Maxine is the real deal for the following reasons:
• She was born and raised in the rural area of the district.
• She has lived in Lincoln for approximately 15 years and is extremely well known in that community.
• As LTG she made economic development in rural NE her priority and regularly toured the rural areas in support of community economic development.
• She resigned as LTG to take the cabinet level post of Economic Development Director (in NE this position is probably as or more visible than the LTG) where she again put a special emphasis on rural development.
• She is very well liked and respected by the business community throughout the state and I would be surprised if she doesn’t receive significant crossover support.
• Recent Democrats such Ben Nelson, Bob Kerry and Jim Exon have all won this district as part of statewide campaigns.
On the opposition research side:
• Fortenberry is not a Nebraskan, he was born and raised in LA and educated in DC (I believe) He’s only live in NE for around 10 years.
• He won the Republican primary because the club for growth entered the race and clobbered the two moderates (one truly moderate, the other sort of moderate) with negative ads. Bloodied, the the two moderates split what remained of that vote and he snuck through with the conservative base and helping of misled moderates.
In the general Fortenberry rode Bush’s coattails to a 54% victory, but underperformed Bush in the district. The Dem Sen. Matt Conneally (a rural member of the Unicameral) performed well (around 43%) but failed to mobilize the urban constituency and what he did accomplish was offset by Fortenberry being identifed as the "Lincoln candidate" (he served a term on the predominately democratic city council) see above demographic reference.
This year Sen. Nelson will be the draw and he can be expected to perform well in the district, his approval is somewhere in the 60-70% range. Moreover, Bush’s statewide approval has dropped significantly (approx 8-10% since May of last year) since 2004. Finally Maxine's identification with both the rural and urban constiuency should blunt Fortenberrys abilty to identify as the "Lincoln candidate" and still perfom well in the rural areas.
In the end this seat may be the stealth seat of the cycle. The key for Maxine is to generate enough money to both organize effectively (the district is fairly huge) and compete with the outside media buys that’ll likely hit once groups outside NE (eg, Club for Growth) see the numbers tighten. It’s unlikely that Maxine will be able to rely on similar national groups (association could have a negative impact), so she’ll need to be able to stand on her own. With all that said, media in NE is affordable comapared to the rest of the country with a likely emphasis on radio (fall campaigns equal farmers in the field with radios).
Meanwhile, commenter HistoryChickInNebraska has some color on Scott Kleeb, running in the open seat in NE-03. I should point out, though, that this is the sixth-most conservative district in the country, by PVI.
Posted at 02:38 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Nebraska | Technorati
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Comments
News from North Carolina.
I checked the FEC site for a couple of races in North Carolina. Two of the races (NC 8, & NC 11) were considered competitive.
NC 8
Timm Dunn (fighting D) raised $90,332 and has $4,808 on hand.
Robert Hayes (R incumbent) raised $835,640 and has $733,837.
Larry Kissell (D) raised $93,243 and has $45,380.
Kissell's and Dunn's numbers were as of 3/31. Hayes was as of 12/31
I suspect the democrats fundraising will pick up remarkably after Tuesday's Primaries.
NC 9 - Not competitive, but makes up Charlotte.
John Flynn (D) raised nothing and has nothing on hand as of 2/10
Sue Myrick (R incumbent) raised $680,489 and has $325,910 on hand as of 12/31
I don't think John is trying. John Kerry won Mecklenburg County. The first democrat to do that since FDR.
NC 11 (the most competitive in the state)
Charles Taylor (R Incumbent) raised $635,439 and has $18,724 as of 12/31
Joe Shuler (D) raised $440,972 and has $352,986 on hand as of 12/31
Posted by: cltpie28 ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at April 19, 2006 03:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Excellent analysis by you and "J". As I said last night, this race was always on the periphery of my target zone considering Fortenberry's one-term wonder status. Now I'm downright intrigued. Nonetheless, I think it's optimistic for you to say that Ben Nelson will be "the draw" this fall. I'm not yet convinced he will even be a cinch given Ricketts' bank account and Nebraskans recent inability to bring themselves to vote for any Dem (particularly Nelson, who grossly underperformed pre-election poll numbers in both 1996 and 2000) in Federal elections.
My money says "the big draw" will be former Nebraska Cornhuskers Coach Tom Osborn for Governor. Even if Nelson does pull of a landslide re-election, my guess is Osborn will get far more votes, overperforming the GOP average in Lincoln where he'll be particularly popular. On that front, Moul will be swimming against the tide. Still, if any Dem can win it, she's the one.
Posted by: Mark at April 19, 2006 03:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The analysis on NE-01 belongs solely to J. He gets all the credit - and the blame! :)
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 19, 2006 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
cltpie28: Tim Dunn dropped out of the race about a month ago.
Mark: Do you think though that Osborn could be just a singular draw without having any coattails? From what I've seen from Osborn in committee hearings he doesn't seem to be an overly partisan guy. More of a typical Midwestern republican (i.e. a republican because it's the "party of the fathers" but not a wingnut like Fortenberry). So perhaps ticket-splitting will be fairly common but correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted by: nada at April 19, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm unconvinced on coattails either way in Nebraska--Nebraskans have proven over the past few decades that they're prone to ticket-splitting.
As for Scott Kleeb, that district has been Republican since 1958. But the key thing about that district is this: it's been an open seat three times since then, and in two of those three times, the Democratic candidate almost won. In 1974, it was only by 737 votes. In 1990, it was only by 4,373 votes. For that reason, and for Kleeb's very impressive persona, I've been checking out the local coverage of this race periodically, and Kleeb's been getting favorable coverage. He's even got Bob Kerrey doing finance work for him. In a district like this one, retail politics goes a long way, and from what I've seen, Kleeb looks like pretty gifted in the area of interpersonal relations. I'll be keeping my eye on this one.
It'd be pretty wild in NE-03 AND NE-01 went to the Democrats. Of course, it's a pipe dream at the moment, but not an entirely implausible one.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 19, 2006 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sandwich: What happened the other time?
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 19, 2006 07:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
nada, "coattails" are virtually impossible to predict. I'm sure with Al Gore and Joe Lieberman headlining the ticket in 2000, the last thing Democrat Sam Gejdenson from CT-02 was expecting was an upset by Republican Rob Simmons in a district Gore won by about 20 points. Coattails could be similarly non-existent for Osborn in Nebraska, but suffice it to say if I was Maxine Moul running in the district that is home to the University of Nebraska, I'd rather have the same party affiliation as Tom Osborn than a different one.
And I concur on Osborn. From what I've seen of the guy, he doesn't seem to be too bad for a Republican. Weird that as blood-red as Nebraska is, the Republicans they elect are less likely to be madmen (Chuck Hagel, Doug Bereuter) than some of the blue-state Republicans (Rick Santorum, Curt Weldon).
Posted by: Mark at April 19, 2006 11:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'll look into that for you, David, but not until I finish off my last two final exams this week!
Speaking of Nebraska... one other thing to keep in mind is that the state follows the Maine method of electoral vote distribution. So that means, if the Democrats manage to pick off one of the House seats this year and hold it in the 2008 election, they'd get 1 out of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes. So these seats are really gifts that keep on giving!
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 19, 2006 11:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sandwich, while you may be right about coattails. I read twice today about how close some of the previous NE-03 races have been and was pleasantly surprised (of course, these races were in the pre-Rove era) considering that this is one of the most Republican districts in the country at the Presidential level. The last race I was expecting to be second look at this fall was NE-03, so this is a pleasant development.
Posted by: Mark at April 19, 2006 11:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
HellofaSandwich, are you sure it works that way with the electoral vote allocation? I always thought it simply boiled down to the winner of that specific district in the Presidential race got the electoral vote. And don't be surprised if Nebraska loses one of its electoral votes after 2010. I believe it's straddling the fence population-wise.
Posted by: Mark at April 19, 2006 11:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohhh... yeah, you know, I think you may be right about that, Mark. Actually, come to think of it, I'm absolutely sure you're right, because if my thinking was correct, then Olympia Snowe's victory in 1992 would have robbed Clinton of an electoral vote.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 19, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sandwich: What happened the other time?
Finally the gears in my stumpy head are going into motion. What happened the other time, David? Tom Osborne happened the other time! He's as popular as Jesus in Nebraska.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 20, 2006 03:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NE-1 went on my radar early, as soon as it began to be rumored that Maxine Moul would run. NE-3 went on my radar when I saw that Scott Kleeb is on the short list at SNAP PAC, for support. Yesterday I read that Moul out-fundraised her opponent in Q1-2006.
Win or lose, they appear to be real races, this time. And any money the GOP spends defending Nebraska seats is money they were no doubt hoping would be available for races in districts elsewhere.
Upset wins in these two would be wonderful. But even a credible challenge is making a national contribution by diverting resources to hold NE in the red column.
#%#%#%#%#
“If the Democrats take over either the Senate or the House in 2006, you might as well forget the last two years of the Bush Administration, because it’s gonna be pure torment.” Fred Barnes, Fox "news" pundit
Posted by: Christopher Walker at April 20, 2006 10:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The electoral vote allocations in Maine and Nebraska apply only to presidential races. So even if a Dem wins a House seat in NE (or a Republican in ME), that has no bearing on which party wins that electoral vote for President. Speaking of which, the last time Nebraska voted Democratic for President (1964), it didn't have those rules (I think they changed it in the '90s); but if it had, one of the districts still would have voted for Goldwater. I don't know which district that was, but I'm betting it was probably the 3rd.
And speaking of the 3rd, I mentioned in another comment that I know Scott. I don't feel like repeating everything I said there, but suffice to say he'd be a prime candidate for the next Joe Lieberman if he were elected. So that's one Democrat I won't be rooting for!
Posted by: RamblinDave at April 20, 2006 01:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And speaking of the 3rd, I mentioned in another comment that I know Scott. I don't feel like repeating everything I said there, but suffice to say he'd be a prime candidate for the next Joe Lieberman if he were elected. So that's one Democrat I won't be rooting for!
And a Democrat who otherwise votes objectionably but votes to put Democrats into all the committee chairs so that we have the power to move legislation and clamp down on the Republicans is less desirable than a Republican who votes to keep Republicans in power, why?
Honestly, I'm continually surprised at the capacity that some people on my side of the fence have for not understanding how the real world works. I thought that we were the reality based ones.
Posted by: Jay at April 22, 2006 07:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment