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Saturday, April 15, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCYou know the drill. Let's hear it.
Posted at 01:25 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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NV-02 and NV-03 are really going well. Democrat Tessa Hafen in NV-03 has been really quiet in her race against incumbent Jon Porter. But, her fundraising numbers are very strong. She raised $369,000 in Q1. Jill Derby, the Democrat running in NV-02 (the usually-very-conservative district including everything outside Las Vegas), showed strong polling last week, and her fundraising has been good as well:
http://www.lasvegasgleaner.com/las_vegas_gleaner/2006/04/hafen_out_of_th.html
Posted by: Sarah R Carter ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at April 15, 2006 02:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NV-02 and NV-03 are really going well. Democrat Tessa Hafen in NV-03 has been really quiet in her race against incumbent Jon Porter. But, her fundraising numbers are very strong. She raised $369,000 in Q1. Jill Derby, the Democrat running in NV-02 (the usually-very-conservative district including everything outside Las Vegas), showed strong polling last week, and her fundraising has been good as well.
(Having trouble posting links, but you can find the goods at the Las Vegas Gleaner.)
Posted by: Sarah R Carter at April 15, 2006 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
FL-22 did Ron Klein give his quarter numbers yet? It's probibly our best chance for pickup in FL right now.
Posted by: D in FL. at April 15, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Dunno about Klein. But isn't it weird that the front page of his website hasn't been updated in months?
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 15, 2006 03:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i hope hector lundy jumps in against boustanty. otherwise, that seat looks lost for a long time
Posted by: yomoma2424 at April 15, 2006 03:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
yomama, good point. LA-07 has fallen completely off of everybody's radar since Chris John decided not to run. Considering that Boustany is only a one-term incumbent and his district's population is in flux after the hurricanes, it seems like we should be able to find somebody quality to run there.
Posted by: Mark at April 15, 2006 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is my first post to this or any BLOG so hello everyone. I just want to say I really like SSP and enjoy reading it. Good work everyone. Personally I live in PA-06 so I am obviously concerned and interested in the Lois Murphey/Jim Gerlach race here. I also grew up in PA-07 and still have a lot of friends in that district so I have interest there as well. My take is I am very confident in Murphey this time around, but although Weldon has been getting unfavorable coverage and Sestak has been getting favorable coverage I am worried about this seat. The district has a national Democratic bend to it but the local Republican machine is still very powerful and the local populace I think really wants to vote Republican, the are willing to switch but they defiantely have a favorite all things equal. So we have to show them that things are not equal. It will help having Rendell on the ballet as he will need a huge SE PA turnout for his own relection and therefore will have a major GOTV effort in the area, but the area is no stranger to multi-party voing in an election either. In the short-term I have a state senate race on primary day (May 16) to fulfill the term of a state senator which I have some hope for
Posted by: stebu at April 15, 2006 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here are two links regarding what is going down in CD-50 on the Gop side.
It looks like the influential organization with website known as "California Republican Assembly" may be advising conservatives to go ahead and vote for Bilbray in the Runoff, but align behind Roach in the Primary for the Nov. Election. Per one of the links, Morrow, Kaloogian & Roach did not attend the Bilbray lead Unity Dinner last night.
Unless the RNCC pulls a coup to keep Roach & the CRA in-line, this could get very interesting.
Also, it seems that the CRA is very worried about Busby using Bilbray's Lobbyist ties to thwart him in the Runoff & Nov.
CD 50: If conservatives will unify, Roach should charge The Hill!
« Return to All Commentaries 4-13-2006 8:17 am
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Bilbray Win Is A GOP Loss
http://www.californiarepublicanassembly.com/blog.htm
Posted by: Predictor at April 15, 2006 09:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MN-01: Tim Walz outraised incumbent Gil Gutknecht this quarter by nearly $20,000 dollars. This is going to be a great race!
MT-SEN: Tester seems to be getting back on track, he can still win this thing.
Posted by: DFLer22 at April 15, 2006 09:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NJ-04 WHERE ARE OUR CANDIDATE WITHDREW LESS THAN A WEEK AFTER FILINGS CLOSED.
Firtunately we can get a write in up.
Virginia - What happened with their filings?
Georgia - 3 races yet to fill.
Posted by: BENAWU at April 15, 2006 09:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sherrod Brown is finally moving into southern Ohio. He's planned multiple events in Clermont County which of course is my home county and is located within Ohio's Second Congressional District. I'm guessing he's trying to get rid of some of the animosity between Hackett supporters and himself. Sherrod is also going to Athens county which is located in Ted Strickland's Congressional District. I'm glad to see that he's finally moving to central and southern Ohio. Now these are only small steps, seeing as these events are only dinners among Democrats, but I'm sure that he'll soon be traveling south with speeches and major events. For more information on Sherrod Brown's events follow the link below.
http://www.sherrodbrown.com/events
Also for a county map of Ohio to see where Brown's actually going go to:
http://www.dot.state.oh.us/map1/cntymap.HTM
Posted by: Craig at April 15, 2006 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Benawhu:
I'm not finding anywhere that Gary Schiavone-D-Lakewood pulled out of NJ-04. I had seen that Marcus-D-Galloway Twp. in NJ-02 was considering pulling out to pave the way for Viola Thomas-Hughes-D-Fairf.
Do you have a link for you info on NJ-04?
Posted by: Predictor at April 15, 2006 09:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here's some news re: Calif Congress & Senate Finance Filings:
Unfortunely "Dirty Dick" Pombo (R) CA-11 has a huge advantage. Too bad Feinstein can't lend him some of her $7M, her opponent didn't even file a report.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/04/15/state/n154428D61.DTL
Posted by: Predictor at April 15, 2006 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey predictor.
Here is the link you were looking for.
http://www.bluejersey.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1263
Cheers
Posted by: BENAWU at April 16, 2006 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Thanks for the Link. That sucks. Funny cause when I saw his employment listed I thought about the Hatch Act. Incredible that he/others did not.
Would've liked to have seen a more viable candidate (read non-novice) as this district is Cook rated R+1. Gore won it, Kerry lost it. Cong Smith's record as a relative moderate makes it a hard egg to crack. On one hand the Monmouth County Gop is in disarray, on the other hand the Ocean County Dem Party can't even screen a candidate properly.
There aren't alot of Dem Legislators within the District, they'd be in the Mercer/Burlington portions. Otherwise The Mayors of Brick Township, Lakewood or Freehold Boro Council are the only ones that come to mind in the Monmouth/Ocean parts of the District.
Hopefully someone can be convinced that this is shaping up to be a good year for us, but as with NJ-02 they couldn't convince my hopeful pick, Assemblyman Van Drew-D, to go up against Lo Biondo-R.
Posted by: Predictor at April 16, 2006 12:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
1.) Missouri Senate race. Former Jackson County (KCMO) prosecutor and current state auditor Claire McCaskill is mounting a fierce attack on Jim Talent(less Hack), a former lobbyiest still hanging on to $5g's of Abramoff scratch. Look for the Dems to pick up a senate seat here.
2.) Kansas Attorney Generals race. Current Johnson County, KS District Attorney Paul Morrison switched parties to run against current KS AG Phil (KK)Kline. Kline's all-abortion-all-the-time obsession is wearing thin. Kansas claims to be pro life, but it's only surface sentiment. Kansas remains the last hope of any woman needing to make a late-term quality-of-life decision, or to abort a doomed fetus. Kansans are starting to raise eyebrows about Klines all-consuming obsession with the sexual activity of teenage girls. Morrison has excellent chances. He is respected and tough, and besides that, he can pull off the Stetson-and Tony Llama's look, and that will play well in western Kansas. Conversely, Kline would look more ridiculous in cowboy attire than Dukakis did in that tank.
Posted by: Global Citizen at April 16, 2006 02:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A candidate needs only 100 votes as a write in in the primary to get on for the general. Surely we can find someone else.
Posted by: BENAWU at April 16, 2006 04:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VA-05. So far so good down here. We've got two candidates for the Democratic nomination and it looks pretty solid that the real progressive is going to beat out the 80s-style DLC-Dem. Good news. Looking past the primary, our Republican incumbent, Virgil "MZM-Scandal" Goode is looking pretty weak. This is a district that he traditionally decided on local issues and family values, but if this election turns to national issues and we can cash in on an anti-incumbent backlash, we can win this thing and do it the right way -- by standing up for real Democratic values, opening ears, and changing minds.
I'm really excited about this race and so are a lot of others in the area. In fact we had a guy drive 600-some miles from Indiana just to volunteer for a few days!! He heard Al Weed on the radio or stumbled upon his website or something and just loved him so much he took a week to come help us out. That's activist energy you can't buy, am I right?
Virgil keeps winning 64% of the vote, whether he's a D, an I, or an R, and in 2004 he beat Bush by 8 points. So clearly we're not dealing with ideological voters, they just trust Virgil. I'm thinking he's squandered their trust to fill his campaign coffers and they've had about enough. Al's a farmer, a 42-year veteran of the armed services, and an active member of his church community. He's got the kind of community values the 5th district appreciates, and he's not afraid of progress, which it depserately needs.
This would be a huge upset if Al can pull it off, but we've got just about everything on our side that doesn't show up on paper, so keep your fingers crossed and keep fighting the good fight!
Posted by: msnook at April 16, 2006 01:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just one request: When posting URLs, it would be greatly appreciated if you could use simple HTML code to make the formatting easier on the eyes (and the site). To embed a link properly, use the following:
[A HREF="http://www.website.com/"]Website[/a]
Just switch the [ ] brackets with angle-brackets (ie, the greater-than and less-than signs). Also, don't forget to use " " quotation marks around the URL in the first part. Thanks!
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 16, 2006 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, now that I learned that a former colleague is communications director for one of the Dems in OH-18 (Sulzer v. Space on May 2; winner v. Bob Ney), I'm interested in that one.
Primarily, my focus remains on PA-8, but I have to say, I'm impressed by Raj Bhakta's non-insignificant fundraising in PA-13, though I still assume Allyson Schwartz is safe.
Posted by: Adam B at April 16, 2006 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm extremely interested in VA-02, or whichever is Drake's district. CA-50. NY-29, CT-02, IN-09, IL-06. CO-07, AZ-08, and NM-01 are all very interesting and competitive. Nevada isn't very competitive though.
Posted by: ArkDem at April 16, 2006 10:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nevada isn't very competitive though.
It might be more helpful if you explained your reasons for thinking so, rather than just stating opinions as facts.
Posted by: DavidNYC at April 16, 2006 10:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Give up for CT, we have three of the top 10 Cash On Hand for Challenegers in the country. We have out act together. PA is very close to deserving same sort of Shout out, just need a real Dent Challenger
Posted by: Democraticavenger at April 16, 2006 10:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Im interested in all things Virginian
1) Senate - Webb is cruising now, picking up steam and making converts everywhere he goes. He recently traveled to the Hampton Roads portion of Virginia and I think his next stop is up near the Chesapeake region. Im glad to see him hitting the streets and I think this is the best way to build support and momentum for his campaign. He already has the nomination locked IMHO so now he needs to refocus his message on getting the rural swing votes. If you are at all interested in the VA Senate race, you can learn a lot at Raising Kaine - Its got a lot of great articles and opinions on Virginia politics, especially the Senate race.
2) VA-02 - Phil Kellam is our best chance at a Democratic pickup this year in Virginia. He is running against freshman incumbent Thelma Drake. Havent heard too much about the campaign lately but its still early. He has high name recognition in his district and appears to be a no-nonsense kind of guy willing to work across the aisle a la Mark Warner. This is gonna be a great race.
3) VA-05 - As msnook said, the 5th's candidate Al Weed is a great guy. A farmer, soldier, activist and statesman, he is a true progressive and I would love to see him represent our state. One of his great ideas is to transition Virginia's tobacco farmers into growing switchgrass for biodiesel production. That way the farmers keep their land, make a living, and produce something useful for the state. Unfortunately Virgil Goode is like a deer-tick and I think he's gonna fool the 5ths voters one more time into voting for him.
4) VA-10 - Judy Feder is running a strong campaign against Frank Wolf here in my home district. Unfortunately Wolf is uberpopular and most dont know just how far right he is. He's gonna win big but keep an eye out for Judy - I think we're gonna see more of her in the future.
msnook (and anyone else involved in VA politics) - check out DemocraticUndergrounds Virginia: 2006 forum.
Posted by: AlecBGreen at April 16, 2006 10:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
People would be surprised on how well we have the oppurtunity to do in VA-02. Phil Kellam outraised Drake when he caught her by surprise last quarter. But, what you have to realize is that he only had half a quarter because he got in late, but he still raised 230,000 to her 211,000. Cheney coming to stump for her last month shows some intial nevousness on their half of the GOP. I'm guessing that it stems from the fact that Kaine narrowly won this district, and during that election the Democrats gained a traditonally Republican Senate or maybe house District in VA-02. Still Kellams new numbers 311,000 look very good. I don't know what Drake's numbers are though. AZ-08, I just got a look at Giffords Numbers, and they're great, 575,000 in this quarter, added with 245,000 in last quarter. She had a total of 475,000 dollars on hand. Her nearest GOP opponet, has 130,000 dollars.
Posted by: ArkDem at April 16, 2006 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
These are the 8th CD Wisconsin fundraising totals as reported on wispolitics.com. GARD & MCCORMICK are the Republicans. KAGEN, NUSSBAUM, & WALL are running for the Democratic nomination.
The 8th Congressional District is one that should and could be a Democratic pick up in a good year. The 8th CD does lean GOP but, in twice in the past 25 years the Dems have won the seats when the GOP was floundering and that makes this seat critical to the chances of retaking the House of Representatives in 2006.
Gard Campaign
Total raised during 1st quarter: $371,552
Cash on hand: $739,516
*backed by the National Republican machine, he is Wisconsin's Tom DeLAY
Kagen Campaign
Total raised during 1st quarter: $210,651
Cash on hand: $1,241,276 (note: candidate has loaned campaign $1.45 million)
*1st time candidate from Appleton. A Doctor talking health care reform. Nearly self funding his campaign
McCormick Campaign
Total raised during 1st quarter: $7,000
Cash on hand: $25,000
*Appleton State Rep. underfunded and outgunned
Nusbaum Campaign
Total raised during 1st quarter: $326,000
Cash on hand: $460,000
*political base is Brown Co. (Green Bay) and endorsed by Emily's List
Wall Campaign
Total raised during 1st quarter: $114,000
Cash on hand: $400,000
*1st time candidate. Rhodes scholar. Endorsed by David OBEY Wisconsin 7th district Congressman
Posted by: walja at April 17, 2006 06:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nevada absolutely IS competitive.
NV 2. Jill Derby just outraised all her opponents and recent public polling had her only 4 points behind the Republican frontrunner -- within the margin of error.
Posted by: goredsox at April 17, 2006 11:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"I have to say, I'm impressed by Raj Bhakta's non-insignificant fundraising in PA-13,
though I still assume Allyson Schwartz is safe."
Yes, he's doing surprisingly well for a totally unqualified neophyte,
but Schwartz's 3/31/06 filing shows $1.2 million COA,
so I'm not going to worry about her, or Murtha, or Doyle, or Kanjorski.
I'm waiting to see how much money the GOP pumped into Curt Weldon's warchest
in response to the Sestak challenge.
Sestak might overtake Lois Murphy as the favorite to flip a PA seat,
if Weldon doesn't get off his well-larded butt and raise some money.
Posted by: Christopher Walker at April 17, 2006 11:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Raj's fundraising isn't all that surprising--afterall, he did get a national audience on the Apprentice who identified with his country club/campus Republican prickism.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 17, 2006 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here in IN-09, there are 2 weeks till the primary to determine the Democratic challenger to rubber-stamper Mike Sodrel. I'm working nonstop for grassroots underdog Gretchen Clearwater-- it's a shoestring campaign (no comments necessary about fundraising numbers) but we're achieving amazing results. Our action alerts have generated nearly 100,000 hits (specifically a recent alert on Iran), we're about to hit the airwaves with our first radio ad (which you can listen to on my campaign blog), and we're crisscrossing the district, picking up support at every stop. It's an amazing experience!
Posted by: Eric at April 18, 2006 09:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
you realize that if clearwater wins, the race goes from toss up to safe R. a flaming liberal cant win a race in a district taht went 58% for bush
Posted by: yomoma2424 at April 18, 2006 09:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I got to agree Baron Hill seems like the stronger candidate. I'm just an outsider though not from the district just an outsider opinion.
Posted by: D in FL. at April 19, 2006 12:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment