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Saturday, April 01, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Have at it.

UPDATE: I have no idea how she can possibly hang on. Do you? As DHinMI observed to me, Ed Rollins is ditching Kathy Harris but sticking with batshit crazy KT McFarland. How pathetic is that for Harris?

Posted at 02:03 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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New Jersey CD-7
Cong. Mike Ferguson (R) vs. Linda Stender (D)State Assemblywoman, Ex-Union County Freeholder & Ex-Fanwood Mayor
http://www.lindastenderforcongress.com/

2004 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 164,176 (53%)
Kerry (D) 144,767 (47%)

2000 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 127,702 (49%)
Gore (D) 124,699 (48%)

Linda Stender is a top tier candidate here in a marginally republican district. Cook rates this as a competitive race (likely republican), CQ Politics rates it as "Safe Republican" and this hasn't popped up on Sabato's radar screen yet, however it should be considered a competitive race to watch.
PS- In the 2000 GOP Primary in CD-7, Ferguson bested Tom Kean Jr. by a wide margin.

Posted by: Predictor at April 1, 2006 02:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I put up a little list of reasons why the ID-01 race with Dem Larry Grant might be more competitive and winnable than one might think.
1. Idaho has had a huge increase in population in the last few years, mostly to the urban (as urban as Idaho gets) area in and around Boise. Urban voters tend to go blue.
2. Idaho's overall population is still quite small - put up a few billboards in Boise and you'll get half of the state and 3/4 of the district driving by them every day. A little money reaches a large percentage of the voters in the district.
3. Approval of the Bush Administration has recently slipped 16% in the state - a new development, and a promising one for Democrats like me who smell blood in the water.
4. Straight from Larry Grant, as reported in the Boise Weekly:
...To the best estimate, he says, the Idaho's First Congressional District has about 230,000 voters. It would take, he speculates, about 115,000 of those votes to win. In 2004, John Kerry got about 96,000 votes from the district. Go down to the legislative-level races, he said, and 118,000 people cast votes for Democrats.
"Add some independents and disaffected Republicans," Grant says as he digs through his apple pie, "and it not only shows that a Democrat can win Congress but also in the State Legislature."
5. The guy bought me a beer and sat down to talk about what I wanted out of a Congressman. That's some good politics.
6. The seat Grant is competing for is open this term, so there is no incumbent to compete against.

I stuck that up at DailyKos in a diary and it generated some comments, but it's only one of three things there mentioning this race. With the small cost of reaching large amounts of voters in this state, and the decent number of people willing to vote for Democrats, this is a race that should be watched (and donated to, perhaps) by anyone who wants to flip a district or pick up an open seat in the house.

Posted by: yellownumber5 at April 1, 2006 02:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just took a look at Grant's site, and saw this:

Cecil Andrus, Idaho’s only four-term governor, announced today that he is supporting Larry Grant in his bid for Congress in Idaho’s 1st Congressional District. Grant, a resident of Fruitland and former Vice President and General Counsel to Micron Technology, Inc. is running for the seat being vacated by C. L. “Butch” Otter.
[...]
“It really is time to clean house in Washington, DC.,” Andrus said. “It’s time for a clean sweep. Our brave soldiers and marines are dying in Iraq and we can’t figure a way out."

That's great to see. I'll keep my eye on this race, but please keep us updated! Idaho is a state that definitely flies under the radar.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 1, 2006 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Is Larry LaRocca still active in ID politics? I know he was the last Dem to hold this seat (and got swept out in 1994). I realize having Andrus on his side is a much bigger deal for Grant, though.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 1, 2006 03:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

LaRocco is running for Lt. Governor this year

Posted by: Johnny08 at April 1, 2006 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in the NY Dems taking the State Senate back this year or in 2008.

DavidNYC - Any word on how things look?

Posted by: John Mills at April 1, 2006 05:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As always FL-15 Bob Bowman awesome guy. Ohio Senate race Brown seems to be coming back into the race and Strickland in the Gov. race seems to be holding a strong lead. Pennsylvania Senate Casey seems to be declineing a bit probibly due to Liberal Dems. in Pittsuburgh and Philedelphia learning of Caseys Pro-life stance. And the CA-50 special election as well as TX runoffs I hope Busby can pass 50.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 1, 2006 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One last thing IL-17 any idea who the Dem. is going to be there?

Posted by: D in FL. at April 1, 2006 05:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, it's still up in the air, but it looks like Phil Hare, Evans' longtime aide, is in the race and has Evans' endorsement:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/03/il_17_hare_leaps_into_race_wit.html

The NRCC says that this is a "top target" for them...

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 1, 2006 06:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thats good news on ID-1. Democrats should be giving (more) attention to the Mountain West as there are a lot of libertarian reds out there to be won back. They cant be happy with the way Herr Bush is running things.

-Alec

Posted by: AlecBGreen at April 1, 2006 07:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anyone have any news about candidates for TN 2?

It is the next race without a Democratic candidate where filing will close next friday.

How about the Alabama races. Filings close on Monday week and we have no one in AL 2, 3, 4 and 6.

Posted by: BENAWU at April 1, 2006 07:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A bit of news has got me primed and eager about Harry Mitchell's chances against J.D. Hayworth in the AZ CD-5 race.

I've been dismissive of the numbers showing Elizabeth Rogers doing so well against Hayworth in '04 despite raising hardly any money. The main reason I've pooh-poohed those numbers is because of Edward Ableser. (See http://www.eza2004.com/.) In 2004, Ableser was a 25-year-old grad student at Arizona State University who had been one of the founding members of GenerationDean. DFA repaid Ableser for his excellent service by making his State House campaign one of the second Dean Dozen endorsements, a tag which really brought in the cash for Ed's campaign. Ableser used the money to turn out ASU's 46,000 students as never before, bringing a whole group of new voters to the table (and given ASU's reputation as a mostly local school, these are people who will stay in the district after they graduate). Largely on the strength of these new student voters, Ableser came in a very close third in the House race (the top two candidates got seats), plus everyone he brought to the voting booth pulled the lever for Elizabeth Rogers too. Good for Ed, I said, but didn't this artificially inflate Rogers' numbers against Hayworth? Without Ed on the ticket in 2006, those student voters won't show up to vote for Harry Mitchell, they'll just disappear, right?

Wrong. Not only is Ableser running for the House seat again, he just got appointed to the State Senate to fill out the rest of Mitchell's term. (See Tedski for details: http://rumromanismrebellion.blogspot.com/2006/03/ed-ableser-swearing-in.html.) It's complicated, but apparently they chose Ableser over current House member Meg Burton Cahill, who's running for the Senate seat, even though Ableser says he'll continue to run for Cahill's House seat. Tedski is confused by this development, and thinks it's calculated to hurt the Dems' chances of picking up the Senate seat. My take is that it's actually an unintentionally brilliant stroke of luck for Dems courtesy of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, who are all Republicans. Cahill probably has all the name rec she needs to win the Senate seat on her own, and by making Ableser a Senator they potentially gave HIM the legitimacy he needs to win the House seat. So, according to this logic, Cahill wins the Senate seat anyway, Ableser does better for the House seat than he would have before (potentially winning in a landslide this time), plus Ableser brings in all those students who will also vote for Cahill and -- more importantly -- even more new student voters than last time follow Ableser to the polls, and they all vote for Harry Mitchell. It's a bit of news that makes me seriously reconsider Mitchell's chances against Hayworth, in a good way.

Posted by: Nonpartisan at April 1, 2006 09:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

John Laesch, IL-14.

EDM notes one of the keys to raising the height of the Congressional tsunami is nationalizing the election. Hastert, the man who brought us extraordinary rendition, Medicare Part D, and the "criminalize charity" bill, is the poster boy for the rubber stamp Republicans.

John recently won the primary with a 2/3 majority. His canvass team (several hundred volunteers) is truly amazing and represents a cross-section of the district. And he is picking up significant Republican cross-over from people disgusted with Hastert's fiscal irresponsibility and unwillingness to engage in any kind of lobbying reform. I think John has a real shot at this race, especially with all the free help he's getting from Hastert.

Posted by: raisin at April 2, 2006 10:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't anticipate a Dem running in TN-02. Only one Dem has held this seat since reconstruction, due to allegations that the Repub was informing against bootleggers (you can't make this stuff up).

This district has been listed as one of the top 5 most conservative in the nation.

Living in Knoxville (not in TN-02), one of the most conservative urban areas I've experienced, most Dems in the region are afraid to go it alone without some support from the establishment. Having said that, no one in the current establishment will help support any lambs being led out to slaughter. The TN State Senate went red last cycle and the State House has concerns of going red so most attention here is to retake the State Senate and keep the House.

Oh yeah, there's a Rep...I mean a Democratic governor running for re-election as well. The Republicans don't appear to be running anyone of strength against him as most of his actions have been Republican-minded.

Posted by: JJ at April 2, 2006 11:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NM-01. Incumbent Republican Heather Wilson will have her hands full with Patricia Madrid, the current state attorney general. Wilson has made some moves to the center but the Dems plan on painting her as a rubber-stamp vote for Bush.

Madrid is probably the best candidate the Dems have had against Wilson and one that the state Dems have all rallied behind. But Wilson is a formidable incumbent and, from what I can tell after living here almost 3 months, she seems to connect well with voters. Also, although Democrats have solid majorities in the Legislature and a very popular governor in Bill Richardson, they couldn't turn out the vote in the presidential election and Bush took the state.

I could see this scenario playing out: Democrats build strong momentum nationally, Madrid rides Richardson's coattails (as he will win big), and this House seat switches from R to D.

Posted by: griswald11 at April 2, 2006 01:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The ones that leap to mind today are PA-7 and PA-4. Demographically these should both be winnable seats (especially 7). And with Rendell driving up the vote again in SE Pennsylvania and people turning out to vote against Santorum, well, I think it'll be a terrible shame if we don't take advantage of what's likely to be great turnout in Pennsylvania. Plus, if we want to be seen as competent on defense issues, it'll be great to have a Democratic Admiral in the House. Go Joe Sestak!

Posted by: ArmandK at April 2, 2006 03:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TN 2
Apparently we have someone who has at least collected filing petitions ie a potential candidate.
TN 2 – ROBERT SCOTT
http://knoxcounty.org/election/pdfs/pickup_petitions_state.swf

Posted by: BENAWU at April 2, 2006 04:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

PA-07: Don't suppose there have been any internal polls done on the race? I think it could go Dem. if Sestak can get high name ID in the district and tie Weldon to Bush which should'nt be to hard.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 2, 2006 05:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry, all of my mind-wondering comments earlier were directed at TN-01.

Posted by: JJ at April 2, 2006 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Regarding the races in NM-1 and PA 4,6,7,8 & 10. Richardson coatails are definitely a factor in NM as are Casey coattails in PA. Big plus in those states. Rendell will of course help in SE PA.
And in CA we are hoping for Feinstein coattails in both the Gov race and CD-11 (pombo).

Posted by: Predictor at April 2, 2006 06:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

griswald, in addition to Richardson coattails in New Mexico, Jeff Bingaman should also win his Senate seat in a landslide. This probably bodes well for Madrid in NM-01, but the downside could be that the with the top two races considered sure things, Dems may have little motivation to head to the polls for a simple House race. Seems like every scenario has its potential double-edged swords, but if I was Madrid, I'd still rather have Richardson and Bingaman sharing the ballot under my party banner than I would their respective GOP opponents.

Posted by: Mark at April 2, 2006 08:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My pick of the week is the West Virginia Senate race, but not for obvious reasons. I initially sweated for Robert Byrd when I heard he was gonna have a self-financing millionaire challenging him in the increasingly right-wing state of West Virginia, but now that John Raese has opened his mouth, it's become obvious that the guy comes from the furthest reaches of the GOP's market-worshipping chamber of commerce wing....not the "God, guns, and gays" wing that's electable in West Virginia.

Raese's candidacy gives Dems a golden opportunity in West Virginia to shine a spotlight on exactly what an empowered Republican Party means for the state of West Virginia, sprinkling in a generous supply of Raese's past, present and future wingnut quotes regarding the minimum wage and other meat-and-potatoes issues. If anything will halt the GOP tide in West Virginia, it's John Raese. I hope we don't miss an opportunity to remind voters of that.

Posted by: Mark at April 2, 2006 08:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Do we have a challenger in Dana Rohrabacher's district? We need to be ready to capitalize on any indictments that might come in the next few months.

I know we've got Sulzer in Ney's district, Brown in Doolittle's, somebody in Pombo's, Lampson in DeLay's, and of course Busby in Cunningham's. That's not bad. I don't know how likely it is that Rorhabacher and/or Duncan Hunter and/or Jerry Lewis get indicted, but I'd sure want to be ready just in case.

Also is anyone else on the indictment watchlist? Virgil Goode maybe, in connection with MZM.

Posted by: texas dem at April 2, 2006 08:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the reminder about Bingaman, Mark, hopefully that will help too.

As for as Rohrbacher, he is supposedly facing his 04 opponent Jim Brandt, however I'm not getting a functioning website for the guy. However, here's a link to that & other races:
http://www.dccc.org/races/candidates/CA_46_Jim_Brandt.html

Posted by: Predictor at April 2, 2006 10:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's a shocker. (Its good news).In ND-AL, the republicans, in a convention, chose "Soybean farmer Matt Mechtel" 37 year old political novice, over Gov Hoeven backed State Rep De Krey.
Incredibly CQ Politics had moved this race from Safe Dem to Leans Dem last week on the basis of De Krey taking on Pomeroy.
Guess they will need to write a new article and re-evaluate this one:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/03/nd_atlarge_dekrey_has_shot_at.html

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 12:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh and here's the link to the list of all Calif Statewide/Congressional/Legislative Candidates:

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/election_2006/status/official_cert_list_june_2006.pdf

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 12:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Curious anyone know who is favored in the Dem. Senate primary in MT I like Tester but my annoying Gut says Morrison is leading in the primary i haven't seen any polls though.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 3, 2006 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, last I heard (probably same as you. It's about a 10 point lead for Morrison.

Why is Tester not doing as well on the netroots page? Somethings up with my debit card but I at least tried to donate some coin to both Busby and Tester.

Posted by: trowaman at April 3, 2006 04:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well now my head is in PA 9 and PA 15. I Know filings have closed but take a look at this story - http://www.nj.com/news/expresstimes/pa/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1143785180171130.xml&coll=2

And my diary take on it -
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/4/3/92652/13362
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/3/92058/50815

Posted by: BENAWU at April 3, 2006 09:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

BENAWHU:
Checked out the info you posted.
Nice to see that at least someone is being floated in NJ-4. The frustration is NJ-2, Contract With America (I will resign after 6 terms) Cong Lo Biondo-R, had an announced opponent drop out (Robin Weinstein-political novice). Given Lo Biondo's failure to honor the aforementioned contract, the marginal republican nature of the District and the fact that Atlantic County has been trending Dem in recent years, it is frustrating to see no top tier opponent.

When I last checked out the Atlantic City Press, the county Dems had had their convention, but were waiting to consult with the other 6 counties which comprise parts of the District for input on a candidate. Hopefully this one will not pass unnoticed and go un-challenged.

From AAP 2006 NJ-2:
2004 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 141,123 (50%)
Kerry (D) 138,797 (49%)

2000 Presidential Vote
Gore (D) 134,345 (54%)
Bush (R) 105,630 (43%)

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 03:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

State Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew is apparently thinking about it.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/story/5970025p-5964031c.html
http://www.nj.com/news/bridgeton/local/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1141382543219180.xml&coll=10

Lets hope he runs

Posted by: BENAWU at April 3, 2006 05:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ditto that. Assemblyman Van Drew (D-1) would be the strongest choice. His Assembly District is fairly republican, there might be worry about losing that should he win against Lo Biondo, of course the trade-off would be worth it.
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/Members/vandrew.asp

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 05:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NJ Assembly District 1 is wholly contained within NJ CD-2. I ran the Election results totals for 2004 Prez and 2005 Gov and see an interesting trend, one that would benefit a challenger to Lo Biondo:

NJ Assembly District 1

Kerry 44,663 47.5%
Bush 49,456 52.5

Corzine 29,741 52.6%
Forrester 26,837 47.4

Statewide:
Kerry 53.4%
Bush 46.6

Corzine 55.4%
Forrester 44.6

Kerry ran 6 points behind his State % in this AD losing it, Corzine only ran 3 points behind his statewide % here and won it. Its all of historically republican Cape May County, a few large Dem towns in Cumberland County (Vineland,Millville)and some marginal towns in Atlantic County.

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 06:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

dont forget NJ-05. if we can get the turnout we can win there. With strong candidates running in Bergen and dems on the ballot in sussex we have a chance this year. towns of northern bergen are moving to the blue. I was at a recent dems meeting getting signatures for Paul Aronsohn and there were many republicans changing their party affiliation. Town by town we can win this one. paramus, ridgewood, dumont, bergenfield are all ready to vote for a democrat. Passaic dems have to get up to their northern towns to help out!!

Posted by: jerzay at April 3, 2006 07:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Best of luck in NJ-5 that is really gop territory. NJ-5 was Bush's 2nd best District in NJ 2004, he only did better in NJ-11 (58%):

2004 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 184,530 (57%)
Kerry (D) 137,019 (43%)

2000 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 140,132 (52%)
Gore (D) 120,142 (45%)

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 07:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As to the viability of NJ-02(wish Aronsohn could run there), just ran the figures, Corzine won it:

Corzine Forrester
93,186 81,801

53.25 46.75%

Posted by: Predictor at April 3, 2006 07:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment