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Saturday, April 29, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

I just had my first final exam, which was actually a mock trial for my patent law trial practice class. (We won. Woohoo!) Anyhow, this means that campaigns and elections are the furthest thing from my mind right now. What about you?

Posted at 02:04 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Ever since CQPolitics changed it's rating on it, I must say Wyoming at large has been on my mind a bit. I just think it would be so sweet if that one went our way.

Also, CQPolitics has moved about 8-9 republican seats up a level in vulnerability in the last 2 weeks while nly moving 1 seat down a level (NC-8 due to Tim Dunn dropping out, believed a primary would have been good). Go us.

Posted by: trowaman at April 29, 2006 02:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Got a major oral exam myself next week. So I know what you're talking about. Good luck with yours!

I again wanna talk about NV-02's Jill Derby. It's quite amazing that within a couple of weeks this race has finally gotten on the map. I'm sure the fairly good fundraising numbers and first poll in this very Republican district have helped. But I was still amazed that the DCCC has not only taken an interest in this race but has actually put it on their "Red to Blue" list of top 22 non-incumbent candidates:

https://www2.dccc.org/contribute/red2blue

What's more is that they also put NV-03's Tessa Hafen on that list. Very happy to see that the DCCC finally recognized that we can turn Nevada blue this year!

If you want to know more about Jill Derby and her campaign, I've diaried it at Daily Kos a little while ago:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/22/84757/6380

Posted by: jedinecny at April 29, 2006 02:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The races in Georgia

GA-1: Rev. Jim Nelson (D-Savannah) v. Rep. Jack Kingston (R)
GA-2: Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) v. Bradley Hughes (R-Blakely)
GA-3: Mike McGraw (D-Newnan) v. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R)
GA-4: Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D) or Hank Johnson (D) or John Coyne (D) v. Catherine Davis (R)
GA-5: Rep. John Lewis (D) is unopposed
GA-6: Steve Sinton (D-Marietta) v. Rep. Tom Price (R) or John Konop (R-Lebanon)
GA-7: Allan Burns (D-Lilburn) v. Rep. John Linder (R)
GA-8: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) v. Mac Collins (R-Jackson) or James Neal Harris (R-Gray)
GA-9: John Bradbury (D-Rising Fawn) or Bob Longwith (D-La Fayette) v. Rep. Nathan Deal (R)
GA-10: Terry Holley (D-Grovetown) v. Rep. Charlie Norwood (R)
GA-11: Patrick Pillion (D-Carrollton) v. Rep. Phil Gingrey (R)
GA-12: Rep. John Barrow (D) v. Max Burns (R-Sylvania)
GA-13: Rep. David Scott (D) or Donzella James (D) v. Deborah Honeycutt (R-Riverdale)

13 for 13! Whoo!

Posted by: RBH at April 29, 2006 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

patrick pillon - that guy stands no shot looking like that. shallow but the truth

Posted by: yomoma2424 at April 29, 2006 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thought it worth a mention that Senator Russ FEINGOLD was recently in Iowa campaigning for Democratic hopeful David LOEBSACK IA-2 in his quest to finally retire Jim LEACH the maverick Republican.

Of course, Presidential aspirations had nothing to do with the trip :)

Posted by: walja at April 29, 2006 06:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 50 state page is on my mind actually - Website

Apart from that NY 29, NY 24 and NY 20 are floating my boat.

Posted by: BENAWU at April 29, 2006 07:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, right now, I'm being entertained, in a sort of negative way, by the smear campaign in the Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary between Ken "Katherine Harris" Blackwell and Jim "Corruption Boy" Petro. Their ads are basically seeing who can scream "hypocrite" louder. (For once, truth on both sides!) I'm obsessed with the Democratic attorney general race between Subodh Chandra and Marc Dann, and have been doing nothing but distributing Subodh's literature and yard signs in the last few days. Marc is a good candidate but Sobodh is the most kickass, exciting candidate this state has seen for any office in decades. The Ohio Democratic party in its apparently infinite lack of wisdom and its obsessive affinity for backing party loyalists endorsed Dann over Chandra, even though it can and should have endorsed both. We are hoping we can pull this out this Tuesday.

Meanwhile, polls show Ted Strickland (the certain Democratic gubernatorial nominee) up ten over Kathy Blackwell, not enough of a margin to make me happy. And Senator DeWine is up 11 over Sherrod Brown. Guys, this Senate seat is NOT going to be a pick-up unless Brown radically alters his campaign to appeal to someone outside his hardcore base and so far he has shown the flexibility and openness to suggestion of a George Bush. A shame, really. Paul Hackett, come back. Both Brown and Blackwell have a similar problem on opposite ends of the political spectrum: both have tailored their message to their passionate supporters in a way that will be a turnoff for a wider audience.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at April 30, 2006 03:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Al Weed clinched the nomination yesterday in the VA-05 primary, beating his centrist opponent, Bern Ewert. He has 54% of the delegates to Bern's 28%, with the rest uncommitted. So until the convention on May 20, he can fundraise like hell before the donor caps are reset for the general.

It was a good race, and I think the better candidate won. Now we're moving forward to take out Virgil "MZM-Scandal" Goode in November. Wish us luck!

Posted by: msnook at April 30, 2006 07:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have to agree with BENAWU about Subodh Chandra. He is a great candidate and just what the Ohio Democratic Party needs. A kick in the ASS! Hopefully he can pull it off and move on to face another of the Betty Montgomery, who is part of Taft's scandal plagued administration.

I will also be a little sad after Tuesday. I enjoyed watching the Republican slime machine focused on Other Republican candidates. I think they are just getting started and it will be over soon. But it was fun while it lasted.

Posted by: BrianL at April 30, 2006 09:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Which poll had Dewine up 10?

The last poll i saw had Strickland up 52-32 and Dewine up 43-41.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 30, 2006 12:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anastasia, what poll showed Sherrod down 11, the latest Rasmussen poll which came out this past week showed Brown down 43-41

Posted by: safi at April 30, 2006 12:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe Anastasia is refering to a Post Dispatch poll, but I did not see any specific numbers. However, that is only one poll and it does not jive with the rasmussen trends (at least in the Gov race). I would not put as much stock in the PD poll until we see more numbers. remember that outlier poll back in March that had sherrod down by 16, in stark contrast w/other polls showing a far closer race?

Oh and D in FL, Ted is up 52-35 on Blackwell and 52-32 on Petro, not on both.

Posted by: Corran at April 30, 2006 06:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A race that hasn't gotten a lot of attention is the RI-Sen. race. Matt Brown dropped out of the Dem primary as many of you know, leaving Sheldon Whitehouse the nominee facing only nominal opposition.

I'm all for primaries but I'm kind of glad this one is basically over. Whitehouse can now focus on Chaffee and raising money. Its also all but assurred that should Chaffee win the primary he'll have a money deficit. Right now he only has 150K more than Whitehouse and now Whitehouse can start bringing in the heavy hitters to campaign for him like the Clintons, or Obama or RI's most popular politician Jack Reed.

Posted by: safi at April 30, 2006 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm wondering now about WA-02 (Rick Larson) some people have said this is competitve i'm just wondering why?

Posted by: D in FL. at April 30, 2006 10:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Both CQ and Cook rate WA-02 in the equivalent category ("Likely Dem" for Cook and "Dem Favored" for CQ). That's because WA-02 is pretty much a swing district - it's D+3.

However, last time, the GOP didn't bother putting up a serious fight (the challenger raised no money) against Larsen and he won handily. This year, it looks like his challenger is raising real cash, but I have no idea how serious a threat he really is.

What's interesting is that this isn't even the most Republican D-held district in Washington - that would be WA-03, which is only D+0. However, I don't even think Brian Baird has an opponent. Not sure about that, though.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 30, 2006 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am most interested in the Talent(less)vs. McCaskil Senate race. I think any add that hammers home the repubican support of tax credits to oil companies will register with "Joe Sixpack" over any gun,gay, abortion bs.
Kyle

Posted by: Kyle SF at April 30, 2006 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oops the link was wrong to the 50 State page - 50 State Website

The NY Cong are getting better all the time too.

Ww have a better than even chance to pick up the 20th, 24th and 29th.

Posted by: BENAWU at May 1, 2006 03:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

An accompnying thread should be started entitled, "Weekly George Allen (R-VA) Thread: What racists are you interested in?"

Posted by: howlless at May 1, 2006 02:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The question remains how much Chafee will self-finance, and how much money can matter in The State Of Rhode Island And Providence Plantations anyway.

15 days until the PA primaries, and Patrick Murphy has added the Philadelphia Inquirer endorsement to his long list of support.

Posted by: Adam B at May 1, 2006 03:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment