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Saturday, April 22, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Today is my birthday, so I'm taking the day off. It's all you.

UPDATE: In yesterday's mayoral election in New Orleans, incumbent Ray Nagin took 38%, while Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu) took 29%, forcing a run-off on May 20th. Turnout was about a third. I don't have a dog in this fight, but hey, an election is an election.

Posted at 11:31 AM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

I am completely amazed that it looks so bad in New Jersey, for Menendez. Is this just noise or a real problem ?? Democrats must wake up or it's more carte blanche for the gop.

Posted by: SalmonDave at April 22, 2006 12:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in NC-8, where Larry Kissell is taking on 4 term Republican Robin Hayes. Southern Dem has written a nice background on Kissell and the race in the diaries on MYDD. Prior to Hayes, this was a Dem district for 24 years.......lets help bring it home!

Posted by: kevJ at April 22, 2006 12:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe party endorsement nominations this week and next should determine which candidates will face off in MN-06's open seat. Don't quote me on this, but I believe the Republicans go first. We'll have a better handle on the dynamics of this race come Monday if that's correct. Even though she's the biggest wingnut in Minnesota state politics, Michelle Bachman is the candidate we should be cheering for, simply because she'd be the easiest to demagogue and is probably too far to the right to be elected even in this conservative district. If moderate St. Cloud Republican Jim Knoblach or fiscal conservative Phil Krinkie gets the nod, they are easily the frontrunner over either Democrat. It's a crap shoot, but I'll be optimistic and call it for Bachmann since the GOP activists who get to play kingmaker will be likely to go with the most radical nutjob on the ticket.

On the Dem side, where I believe the nomination will be determined next week (please correct me if I'm wrong), both candidates have their assets and their liabilities to bring to the table. Both Wetterling and Tinklenberg are longshots to beat anybody but Bachmann, and even she won't be a slam-dunk. I honestly don't have a preference between the Dem candidates and will rally behind whoever gets the nod, but I continue to despair that Wetterling didn't jump at the chance to be the frontrunner for this seat last year rather than make a kamikaze Senate run. Now we have to work with the hand we were dealt, which isn't an entirely awful one considering how ugly this district is.

Posted by: Mark at April 22, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the Nevada races. The difference in voter registration between Republicans and Democrats is very slim. Definitely a purple state trending Democrat.

This week I'm especially interested in the CD 2 open seat race. Jill Derby is doing terrific there, in the polls as well as in fundraising. And this is the conservative Nevadan district (everything outside Clark County).

I've written a diary on the race today at Daily Kos. If you want to know more, please go to http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/22/84757/6380 (Jill Derby within the Margin of Error in Republican NV-02). I'd appreciate it.

Posted by: jedinecny at April 22, 2006 01:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey, happy birthday, David!

I won't be posting much in the next few weeks, as I'm going on vacation starting Monday. May the polls and fundraising reports be bountiful, gentle SSP readers.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at April 22, 2006 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't understand. How exactly does it look bad for Menendez in New Jersey. He leads in just about every poll I see.

Posted by: DavidG at April 22, 2006 08:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Happy birthday, David! Hope it's at least as good as mine, which featured a visit to Constitution Hall to hear Al Gore.

Posted by: KCinDC at April 22, 2006 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the 2 vacant GA House races - GA 10 and GA 11.

No candidates yet.

Happy Bithday David.

Posted by: BENAWU at April 22, 2006 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Happy Birthday David here is my usual long list of races:

NOLA mayor my guess it will be Landreu vs. Nagin I hope Landreu pulls it off.
OH-Sen: Any new polls last one i saw had Dewine up 45-42.
NV-03: Do we have a shot here it seems like all the attention is on NV-02 instead.
NM-01: Madrid vs. Wilson.
CA-50: Interested in the Republican Civil War going on in the district.
CO-04: Any news on Angie I haven't heard much lately.
KY-03: Just hopeing we can beat Northup this time.
NY-29: Massa vs. Khul Massa is one of my favorite candidates I hope he can pull it off.
MT-Sen: Tester seems to be gaining a bit of momentum I hope he wins the nomination.
MO-Sen: Anything going on here it's been quiet lately and Talent is on my list of Incumbents i want to see go the most next to Santourm and Allen.
FL-08: Any idea who is running agenst Keller?
VA-Sen: How is Webb doing.
VT-AL: I don't see how Republicans can win here Vermont sending a Republican besides Jeffords to Washingtion does not compute.

Posted by: D in FL. at April 22, 2006 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-02 hasn't been doing much lately. There are McEwen and Scmidt signs everywhere but the Democrats have done nothing. I received a flyer for Victoria Wulsin and Thor Jacobs in the mail yesterday, but that's the only Democratic activity I've seen. I'd like to see if there is any activity in the grassroots for either of the candidates, or if we're just giving up there. I'm sure that some McEwen voters are pissed off at Schmidt and that will give us some voters if he loses the primary. Also, just imagine what would happen if Hackett endorsed a candidate. It looks like Wulsin has more experience than Jacobs, but clearly lacks charisma. Jacobs on the other hand is full of it. Victoria, however, has more endorsements. Is there any information on the money either of these candidates have brought in? I really don't know which candidate to pick, but here in OH-02 the Republican primary is heating up a lot faster than the Democratic one.

For more information on the candidates go to

www.WulsinforCongress.com

or

www.jacobsforcongress.org

Posted by: Craig at April 23, 2006 03:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The latest Rasmussen and Fairleigh Dickinson polls both have Kean leading Menendez in New Jersey - with Menendez not even hitting 40%. This is definitely the most endangered Democratic Senate seat at the moment.

As to why - well, while he's got buckets of cash, Menendez can certainly be portrayed as representing some of the worst parts of New Jersey politics (money, bullying, powerful cliques). I still think he can win - but I wish Corzine had picked a more appealing replacement.

As to other races I'm interested in - the upstate New York challengers, the race against Thelma Drake (R-VA), and the Philly-area challengers. Also in PA - how's the race against Melissa Hart going? Do we have a shot there this year?

Posted by: ArmandK at April 23, 2006 02:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The polls in the NJ race fluctuate a lot and neither candidate can sniff 45% much less 50. I think that when it comes to that, NJ's democratic tilt and Menendez's obscene COH advnatage will put him in a great position to win.

Posted by: safi at April 23, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Corzine had to pick Menendez. Hispanic political leaders told Corzine that if he wanted their continued support, he needed to send Menendez to the senate.

I certainly hope Dick Codey campaigns for Menendez in the coming months. Codey is the most popular politician in the state, and could definitely help Menendez. I just hope Codey isn't too pissed off to get on the campaign trail, though-- he stepped aside to let Corzine run for governor, and didn't really get much in the way of payback for doing that. Maybe Lautenberg will retire after the midterm, and Corzine can nominate Codey to fill that senate seat . . .

Posted by: The Caped Composer at April 24, 2006 09:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another recent item of concern.....WV-01. How big of trouble could we be in for with Mollohan's current problems? Anybody with any inside information about the possibility he could be innocent? Or when indictments may or may not fall either way? This is now a GOP-leaning district....it couldn't have happened in a worse place.

Posted by: Mark at April 24, 2006 09:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

*rant* Why don't the netroots care about the N.O. mayoral election? I get the feeling that for all our bitching about how the Republicans don't care about poor black folk, we don't care either. We still want to do the right thing, but that's what we care about: us doing the right thing -- not the people of New Orleans. */rant*

The VA-05 Democratic primary caucuses are under way! So far, Al Weed has taken 25 delegates to Ewert's 5, with 15 uncommitted. Al staffers seem to think that most of the uncommitteds are locks for Al, mostly because we know them and we know Bern Ewert hasn't even been down there.

Throughout the campaign Bern's major selling point and his supporters' only argument for his candidacy was electability (Al's a flaming pinko liberal and Bern's a "moderate") which was exactly why I was supporting Al. I kept trying to tell them that electability isn't about centrist ideology, it's about inspiring people and getting volunteers willing to pound the pavement and make phone calls. Al's doing well in the southside caucuses because he ran in 2004, people know him, he's got good name reco already, he started a thinktank to work on policy that affects rural Virginia (some Republican farmers have gone to PPV events and told Al if they had known it was his organization they wouldn't have come, but now they're actually going to vote for him), and spent the last two years driving around meeting people and talking to them about what they need from the government.

Well, it seems like my definition (the netroots') of electability proved itself to be the more pursuasive. The good lord willin' we'll have a progressive fighting Dem on the ballot this November. Tonight another 100 delegates are selected, 57 of which are from ultra-liberal Charlottesville/Albemarle where everyone agrees with Al, but a lot of people are worried he's just not electable. I'll report back on how he does.

Posted by: msnook at April 24, 2006 01:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D. in Fl,

About Jim Webb:

He's doing pretty well. He's got quite a following already, and though he has about half the cash Miller has, he's been raising it for half the time. Compare that to his signature list: in half the time, he got 14k sigs to Miller's 13k. Miller was also paying people $1.50 per sig.

NotLarrySabato recently commissioned a NoVa (where a lot of the primary votes come from and Miller's back yard) poll of the primary race. There are some interesting and telling crosstabs there, check out the blog. Results:

Webb: 32%
Miller: 11%
Undecided: 57%

Posted by: msnook at April 24, 2006 01:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As to Mollohan and WV-1, sure he could be innocent. So far all we've heard on this comes from highly partisan accusers who point at some potentially odd looking financial papers - but we have no proof yet if there's any THERE there, or if there's even an investigation going on.

That said, this is clearly the most threatening race he's faced in years. Cheney was in the district last week raising money for his opponent.

As to msnook's comments on New Orleans - What makes you think we don't care?

Posted by: ArmandK at April 24, 2006 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As far as the NOLA mayoral race goes, well, when an election is Dem vs. GOP, it's easy for me to pick sides. When it's a Dem primary that's not local to me, I tend to get less involved. Sure, there are exceptions - CT-Sen and MT-Sen, most prominently.

But for smaller, more local races, I think it's a little presumptuous for me to pick sides in a race like NOLA mayor, which is a race between two Dems. I didn't take sides in IL-06, either. Maybe that means I should butt out of MT-Sen as well, but regardless, I think I'm gonna let New Orleans residents be the judge of who ought to be their mayor.

Posted by: DavidNYC at April 24, 2006 03:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

About NOLA: Ok. I'm convinced. Question asked and answered.

About the VA-05 primary: Tonight Al took 67 of the 98 delegates that we know of, still 15 I haven't heard about. That brings his total to 92 delegates, with 143 decided and 57 still up in the air. At least 15 are uncommitted, so Al's lead over Bern is at least 92-36.

The main hump to get over in the primary was convincing people that a progressive can actually win in such a rural republican district, and a lot of the party Elders, though they agree with Al on the issues, think Bern is the only electable candidate. Most of the party elders live in Charlottesville, where I voted in tonight's caucus. After hearing all the speeches I was motivated to impart some of the blogosphere's wisdom about what "electable" really means (i.e. inspiring the base to get out and move votes!)

If you want to read about it here please do so. I was quite proud to be a citizen of the blogosphere tonight. Thanks blogosphere.

Posted by: msnook at April 24, 2006 11:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment