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Monday, May 29, 2006

AL-Gov: Baxley Opens Up 18-point Lead Over Siegelman

Posted by James L.

Finally, from a Press-Register/University of South Alabama poll (likely voters, April in parens):

Lucy Baxley (D): 45 (39)
Don Siegelman (D): 27 (34)
MoE: ±5%

Siegelman, a former Governor of Alabama, is currently embroiled in a trial for corruption and bribery charges. That it took this long for Baxley to bury Siegelman in the polls is fairly troubling. The winner of the primary (also on June 6--but if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the votes, there will be a run-off on July 18th between the top two vote-getters) will face either incumbent Republican Gov. Bob Riley or former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy "Ten Commandments" Moore. Riley is looking more and more like the shoo-in in the primary, but at least it looks like he won't be running against an indicted punching bag like Siegelman in the general.

UPDATE: A recent SUSA poll shows a much tighter picture (likely voters):

Lucy Baxley (D): 43 (39)
Don Siegelman (D): 43 (47)
MoE: ±4.4%

Both polls show Baxley with differing degrees of momentum, however. Such a wide discrepancy is pretty strange, but all the ink that's going to be spilled over Siegelman's ongoing trial in the next few weeks is clearly not the type of publicity he needs to push himself over the top.

Posted at 06:36 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Alabama | Technorati

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Comments

I am very glad to see this. However, wasn't there a poll from just a few days ago which showed them almost tied? Don't remember which outfit.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 29, 2006 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You're right about that, D-money. I'll post an update.

Posted by: James L. at May 29, 2006 07:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, unfortunately, Riley seems to be in pretty good shape. I guess it's to be expected, since it is Alabama (although at least in the last Rasmussen poll, Baxley had a solid over Governor Roy "Ten Commandments" Moore. But it doesn't seem like he has much chance of winning the primary.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at May 29, 2006 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the netroots should conduct a last-minute fundraising campaign for Busby similar to the one that steered $140,000 to Ciro Rodriguez in the final days of his primary battle. I think the only thing that can prevent us from winning in CA-50 and taking back the House in November is the large Republican fundraising advantage. Right now Busby only has $91,766.98 on ActBlue. That is much less than Ned Lamont, Ciro Rodriguez, Joseph Sestak Jr. and Eric Massa have raised on ActBlue, and her election is only ONE WEEK AWAY! I think that's ridiculous and we should all pitch in to her campaign to make our goal one seat easier in November.

Posted by: SamKessler at May 29, 2006 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, thank you, Sam. Your original comment was fine, but please don't repost it in other threads where a vastly different topic is being discussed.

Posted by: James L. at May 29, 2006 09:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment