Swing State Project

« AZ-05: Dogfight | Main | KY-Gov: Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) Indicted »

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

CA-50: Busby and Bilbray Tied

Posted by DavidNYC

SUSA's being very, very good to us today (likely voters, no trendlines):

Busby: 45
Bilbray: 45
Other: 9
Undecided: 1
(MoE: ±4.8%)

Among Dems, Busby is doing a terrific job - she holds them at a rate of 92-3. (Wow!) Meanwhile, Bilbray holds Republicans by 82-12. Of course, there are many more Republicans in this district, so Busby makes up the difference by obliterating Bilbray with indies, 54-19.

Perhaps the fears of conservatives are bearing fruit: Only 80% of Eric Roach's supported now back Bilbray. We're only talking a couple percent of the overall vote (at most), but that could provide a crucial difference. Busby also steals more votes from Roach & all the other 4/11 candidates than Bilbray does from her (not too surprisingly).

But on the flip-side, I find it troublesome that Bilbray leads among likely voters who did not vote in the 4/11 special, 54-35. According to SUSA, this group makes up 20% of the likely 6/6 voters. I don't know why Bilbray should be doing better among these "new" voters, though I imagine the underlying demographics of the district are at least partly to blame (ie, you expand the pool of voters, you're likely to be including more Republicans).

What concerns me most is that 9% "other". I imagine most of these people are carrying a torch for Roach and the other Republicans whose names are still on the 6/6 ballot. In other words, if anyone can win over that remaining chunk, it's more likely going to be Bilbray rather than Busby. But if those 9% insist on voting for a sure loser, the Busby might be able to pull this one out in the end.

Posted at 09:33 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2342

Comments

Read the cross tabs, it is Independent voters who are staying undecided not Republicans. Another word for this voters, is non-voters. GOTV is what this race is all about.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at May 10, 2006 09:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think you are incorrect. Independents show a high vote (26%) for "other", not for "undecided." They may be confusing the primary ballot with the special election ballot.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 10, 2006 10:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bilbray leading among Latinos by 7 points? Hard to imagine.

I would love to know what percentage of respondents were from each party. I continue to think (and hope) that Busby will get a bump from democrats turning out on 6/6 foer statewide primary races.

This looks to be a barnburner.

BTW, rumor today that with Roach not campaigning, right winger Bill Hauf, who spent 1.1 million of his own money on his 4/11 race (and got 1%), may campaign in the R primary.

Posted by: hilltopper at May 10, 2006 10:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry, my mistake, there are no undecided, well one percent, there just isn't much reason to think the Others, are Republicans, or will even vote.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at May 11, 2006 12:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Since there are only FOUR names in the general special election race (don't confuse it with the regular primary race which is being held at the same time and has fourteen candidates among all the parties), the 9 percent that say they're voting for "other" must be willing to vote for either the Libertarian candidate or the independent candidate. Or else they are confused and think they can vote for one of the Republicans on the regular primary ballot. It is entirely possible that some voters in this district are conservative enough that they would prefer to vote for a Libertarian than for Bilbray who is getting attacked by rightwingers for being too "liberal/moderate". However, in this district, "other" has consistently taken a small but significant percentage of votes. And I think it usually goes to Libertarians.

Posted by: phonatic at May 11, 2006 02:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the fact that Roach has decided NOT to challenge Bilbray for the November nomination is going to help Busby. If Roach was running again, his supporters would have come to the polls again and voted for both Bilbray in the Special Election and for Roach in the General primary. My guess is that without him on the ballot, many of these Roach voters may stay home, giving Busby an edge.

Posted by: Ian in DC at May 11, 2006 12:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Elsewhere in California, a new poll shows both Filson and McNerney beating Pombo in CA-11. His position has deteriorated drastically since September 2005.

Posted by: KCinDC at May 11, 2006 11:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Agree with the comment that Bilbray leading Busby among Hispanic voters is a bit bizarre, especially given his hard-line position on immigration. Here's a link to Bilbray's stance on the immigration issue which includes construction of a fence from the "Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico":
http://bilbrayforcongress.com/issues/immigration/

Although I would like to see a more independent polling source on CA CD-11, I'm not surprised at those numbers as I've been saying for months now that Pombo is on the endangered list.

Posted by: Predictor at May 12, 2006 12:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good point IaninDC re: Roach voters staying home, add to this that the competitive statewide primary races are on the Dem side - Governor, LG, Controller, AG. The Gop has only one competitive statewide primary race - Controller. The Dem Primary voter turnout will be a big plus for Busby.

Posted by: Predictor at May 12, 2006 12:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I would not put too much into the "did not vote" column. It represents only about 84 people in the survey, so the margin of error in the difference between the two candidates is about +/- 20%. The poll's result is thus just a bit inside the margin of error. I would also be very skeptical of SUSA's conclusion that they are likely to vote.

The survey sample consisted of 50% Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 18% Independents. Voter registration in the district is 44% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 22% decline to state, and 4% other.

Posted by: Richard M. Mathews at May 22, 2006 09:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment