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Thursday, May 04, 2006

CT-Sen: Lieberman Swamping Lamont in New Q-Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Quinnipiac finally has a new poll out on the Dem primary in Connecticut (registered voters, Feb. in parens):

Lamont: 19 (13)
Lieberman: 65 (68)
Undecided: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

That's pretty terrible for Lamont. I had been hoping he might crack 30%, but he inched up only 6 points. His name rec barely budged either, going from 93% D/K to 90%.

We're now a little over three months out from the primary. The only spot of hope I can offer is that in mid-February of 2004 (about seventy days before that year's PA-Sen GOP primary), Pat Toomey had a D/K of 79% according to Quinnipiac. (They didn't ask a Toomey-Specter head-to-head that month.) And Toomey, of course, came within a hair's breadth of unseating Arlen Specter.

As always, my usual loud-and-clear disclaimer about the distinctions between these two races applies. I'd say they are coming into even sharper contrast now. The big guns are (perhaps somewhat slowly) lining up behind Lieberman - Dodd's been firing away for a while now, and Harry Reid has gotten Lieberman's back as well. This is exactly what the GOP establishment did for Specter. Ted Kennedy may be next. And maybe even Hillary Clinton, too. While I'm sure Bill can't stand Lieberman, Hillary's all about proving her centrist cred these days.

And on the other side, no one's lined up with millions for Lamont like the Club for Growth did for Toomey, and no one will, in part because no one can.

I'm also aware that Rasmussen recently had a poll out which showed a much more favorable result for Lamont, with Lieberman ahead 51-31. I don't have much faith in Rasmussen, and I would counsel against embracing it just because it shows prettier numbers. However, the folks at the LamontBlog raise a very good point: Rasmussen polled "likely primary voters," while Quinnipiac talked to registered Democrats. In that light, the big spread between the two surveys is plausible. And if Rasmussen's likely voter methodology can be trusted, well then it makes a lot more sense than just asking RVs. Of course, predicting likely voters is one of the toughest tasks in all poll-dom.

One additional detail of note: Swing State Project alum (and now-former DNCer) Tim Tagaris is going to work on the Lamont campaign, doing netroots & grassroots outreach. Tim is easily the most qualified person there is for a job like this. I'm not a blog triumphalist, but if Lamont is to win, it'll happen from the ground up. And Tim is exactly the right person to help make this happen.

Posted at 10:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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Comments

I saw on Dkos i think it was Ras. that had the Race at 51 Lieberman and 31 Lamont.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 5, 2006 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Big Guns will line up behind Lieberman. Hillary Clinton?? Of course. Bill Clinton?? Sure. But Ted Kennedy ... not so sure.

From Ned Lamont's Wikipedia entry:

Lamont has received the backing of former U.S. Senator Lowell Weicker, who was unseated by Lieberman in 1988. Lamont has reportedly pledged to spend over $1 million of his personal funds on the campaign. In addition, Kiki Kennedy, the wife of U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy's son Edward Kennedy Jr. — who had considered a bid to unseat Lieberman himself — has reportedly begun introducing Lamont to members of her social circle, most likely for fundraising and endorsement purposes.

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Of course, it's Wikipedia -- so who knows how much credibility this rumor that Kiki Kennedy is getting behind Ned Lamont's campaign.

Can anyone confirm or deny this rumor -- or at least have more insight than the little I know???

Posted by: Paul Hogarth at May 5, 2006 03:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Lieberman will win the Democratic Nomination and LaMont will become the new executive Director of Moveon.org or join Air America.

Posted by: mrcharlesmburns at May 5, 2006 11:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment