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Tuesday, May 23, 2006

New SUSA Senate Approval Polls

Posted by James L.

Enjoy. Highlights: Jim Talent (R-MO) is in the negatives for the first time, as is John Kyl (R-AZ). Santorum's prognosis looks pretty grim, too.

Posted at 06:00 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Polls | Technorati

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Comments

Santorum at 57% disapprove to 36% approve, ouch!
Thanks for the good news.

Posted by: Predictor at May 23, 2006 08:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Clearly, Pederson's ad campaign is having an effect. Does McCaskill have a similar campaign?

As for Santorum, bye-bye, especially since the 'nobody lives there' story hadn't hit when this poll was taken. I guess Santorum should pack his bags...oh, wait, guess there's no need.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at May 23, 2006 09:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bos: I am seriously out of the loop. Just moved back from NYC yesterday, movers arrive today, and also started bar review class today. Yowza. What Santorum story are you talking about?

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 23, 2006 10:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

what's the "nobody lives there" story?

Posted by: boyblue at May 23, 2006 11:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A Democratic official brought up Santorum's residency issue--saying that nobody lives in his PA mansion (Santorum and his family live in Virginia)--and Santorum's campaign went all hysterical, saying that Bob Casey has goons trespassing on his property and endangering the lives of his children. He had police step up surveillance around his house, I think.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at May 23, 2006 11:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

2006 Senate Breakdown
All approval ratings from Survey USA, all matchups from Rasmussen (mind the caveat), unless otherwise noted.

A rundown of numbers of those we're after:

100. Santorum- 36/57 Casey 51, Santorum 38 (April)
99. Burns- 40/56 Tester 48, Burns 44; Morrison 49, Burns 45
93. Kyl- 44/47 Kyl 51, Pederson 35
89. Talent- 43/44 Talent 43, McCaskill 40
61. Chafee- 52/40 Chafee 44, Whitehouse 41; Whitehouse 51, Laffey 32 (Primary Note: Laffey gets 70% of GOP vote in these matchups, while Chafee gets just 60%)
58. Ensign- 50/37
50. Allen- 53/37 Allen 51, Miller 34; Allen 50, Webb 30 (April)
Tennessee: Corker 43, Ford 39
Tennessee GOP Primary: Corker 38, Hilleary 28, Bryant 23 (SurveyUSA)

Seats the GOP is after:
86. Menendez, Robert- 39/39 Kean 43, Menendez 36 (April)
86. Nelson, Bill- 42/42 Nelson 60, Harris 33
58. Cantwell- 52/39 Cantwell 46, McGavick 41
Minnesota: Klobuchar 45, Kennedy 43

On a local note, most polls I've seen have Klobuchar up by a few points more than this. Because she's represented Hennepin County ably since '99, I predict that she will win by a bit more than Kerry beat Bush in 2004 (51-47).

David, are you a premium member of Rasmussen? The May New Jersey and Nevada Senate numbers are out for those who spend the G's to see 'em.

Posted by: Max at May 24, 2006 01:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Santorum lives in Arlington Virginia. His house in PA is pretty much deserted (no furniture, curtains, nada) and his neighbors say he is never there "unless he comes and goes in the middle of the night" said one of them. LOL. Im glad PA is gonna ditch this goon but does he really have to move to Virginia and befoul our beautiful state? What...Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson arent enough!?

Posted by: AlecBGreen at May 24, 2006 10:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Max, I think Klobuchar could underperform John Kerry in outstate Minnesota. Kennedy's from western Minnesota and represented much of the region in Congress in his first time (2001-2002). The culture gap between Kennedy and the "slick big-city attorney" that Kennedy will assuredly paint Klobuchar as is likely to be staggering. I hope I'm wrong here, but I definitely hope we're both right about Klobuchar's huge Hennepin County numbers. She may very well need them.

Posted by: Mark at May 24, 2006 10:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Klobuchar ran unopposed in 2002 and pulled 380,632 votes, by comparison the DFL candidates for:
Governor 213,147, Atty Gen 284,017, SecState 225,268, Auditor 220,610.
Granted she was unopposed but she managed to get about 70% of the 2002 republican voters to pull her "lever".
Here's a link to the Hennepin site: http://www2.co.hennepin.mn.us/elections/results/byrace?el=2GMNHENN&type=2

Posted by: Predictor at May 24, 2006 01:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Glancing over those numbers and thinking ahead for the future,
this is surely Frank Lautenberg's last hurrah, this term.
He'll be 84 at the end of this term and he retired once before.

Do we expect Congressmen Andrews and Pallone to be the front contenders to succeed him?
(I suggest them because they each sent out feelers to contest the selection of Menendez).

Posted by: Christopher Walker at May 24, 2006 02:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not sure what is going on with Lautenberg as his disapprove rating is 6% higher than his approve (Survey/USA 5/23) 45% to 39%. (Menendez is tied at 39-39%).
Don't forget about Cong Rush Holt on that list to succeed Lautenberg, though he was the first Congreessperson to drop out from consideration during Corzine's selection process.

Posted by: Predictor at May 24, 2006 03:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What about Dick Codey? He's the most popular politician in New Jersey right now. I think he'd be a great candidate for Lautenberg's seat!

Posted by: The Caped Composer at May 24, 2006 04:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Codey wants to stay in West Orange, unless he changes his mind on this issue, he'll stick to living in the Garden State. Luckily the Dems have any number of viable candidates, maybe even too many.
The GOP supply seems exhausted. Saxton & Smith never seem to be interested in going beyond their congressional seats. Now than Kean is moving to the right, he may just seal the Gop's fate in NJ in Nov. However, Corzine's ratings plummet and hopefully he won't take Menendez down with him.
Corzine should have stayed put with Codey at the helm.

Posted by: Predictor at May 24, 2006 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On NJ the multi media markets make it very hard to have a high approval rating that is why Menedez and Frank are so low in approvals. I think Lautenberg should run again he is one of the most Progressive senators in the U.S senate and I would like to keep him there and he has said if he is still healthy he will run again.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 25, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I can see where the multi media market could create a high amount of "undecided"'s (which there were) but do not see the impact on approve-disapprove ratings.
The NJ Dem Party has gone through two intense scandals one put Lautenberg in office, the other Corzine and now Menendez. It is a miracle that the NJ Dems are in as good a shape as they are, it attests to their strength as a party.

Posted by: Predictor at May 26, 2006 01:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment