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Thursday, May 04, 2006

NH-02: We've Got a Race on Our Hands

Posted by DavidNYC

Ah boy does this feel good. Check out UNH's new Granite State Poll (PDF) (adults, no trendlines):

Hodes: 35
Bass: 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.4%)

Those are awesome numbers for Paul Hodes. On the one hand, Charlie Bass is well below 50%. On the other hand, Hodes pulls in 35% of the vote despite being unknown to a whopping 81% of voters. New Hampshire's not a big state, and Hodes has a lot of time to get his name rec up. (Bass has a 49-20 approval rating and is d/k'ed by only 19% of district residents. This is actually one of his weakest showings over the last five years - his favorables have usually been over 50%.)

I'd also like to point out that this poll is something of a rarity - an independent poll of a House race. So none of the usual caveats about internal or partisan polls apply. Yes, the MoE is a bit high, but no, contrary to popular misconception, this does not mean that it's "equally likely" that Bass is actually at 50%.

The bottom line is that we've got a serious race on our hands in this district. If Hodes can raise enough money, and in so doing, raise his profile, then Bass is going to be in deep trouble. If you want to help make that happen, I know that Hodes is having a fundraiser in NYC tonight. I'm not sure if the information is on his website, but you can contact the campaign for more info here.

Oh, and one last thing. RCP declared just yesterday that "no one seriously thinks that Charlie Bass" is in trouble. Well, the good folks at the University of New Hampshire seem to think so - and if Charlie Bass (who was outraised by Hodes last quarter) doesn't think so as well, then he's either in denial or an idiot.

Posted at 01:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Technorati

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Comments

NH 1st
49-33 nothing to sneeze at either. Remember Lynch of the ungodly popularity[66] is running for Re-election.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at May 4, 2006 02:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's been pretty obvious that the reason Dems have lost in statewode races (or half-statewide ones like the CDs) is because of lack of running good campaigns. From the Jeanne Shaheen debacle to GOP Congressmen winning easily in Kerry districts, it is NOT demographics that's holding us back at this point, it's running shitty races. Shaheen's in 2002 was particularly awful.

Posted by: boyblue at May 4, 2006 03:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Paul can run a good race. Yeah, he got beat hard last time, but I think it was exactly the kind of good learning experience that many challengers need in order to succeed. (Think of Bean who first lost to Crane in 2002, or Busby, who got hammered in 2004.) In other words, I think that Hodes has the right background to run a good campaign this year.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 4, 2006 03:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, thanks for the shout out. Paul has worked really hard over the last year and a half to put himself in a position to win this race, and acknowledgements like this are a huge boost to him and the whole campaign. We appreciate the support.

And boyblue, let me reassure you, Paul will have a strong campaign this time around. He's fond of joking that the best way to learn how to be a Congressional candidate is to be a Congressional candidate. Last time around he jumped in just before the filing deadline and by his own candid admission did not run a top notch effort. He's learned the right lessons from the previous run, and is intent in doing the work and assembling the team necessary to win in November.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at May 4, 2006 03:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just verified by e-mail that "staffathodesforcongress" is indeed a staffer for Paul Hodes. Very cool! I think this is the first campaign staffer (that I'm aware of) to visit us this season. I look forward to more updates in the future.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 4, 2006 04:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good to see that Hodes is beginning to be noticed on the national scene. NH-2 is increasingly Democratic in its voting patterns, and the prior experience of his 2004 race will also serve Hodes in good stead.

It's exciting for me, being geographically close to an exciting Congressional race (Darcy Burner in WA-8) and collegiately close to the exciting race of my Dartmouth classmate.

Posted by: Neal Traven at May 4, 2006 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Folks, this seat is very winnable.

A recent statewide poll has Bush at 30% - but most of Bush's support is in the other congressional - infact, Bush is at 11% in the northern rural area of distrcit two.

A poll also shows Democratic Governor Lynch with a 73% approval rating! The poll shows Lynch with 67% to his GOP challenger with 12.

Folks - Hodes needs money, volunteers and help.

We held this seat 1990-1994 until Bass one in the 1994 GOP landslide. Let's get him out!

Ray Buckley, Vice Chair
NH Democratic Party

Posted by: Ray Buckley at May 5, 2006 08:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"won" not "one". Sorry.

Posted by: Ray Buckley at May 5, 2006 08:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wow, welcome New Hampshire Dems! Hey, do you guys have any thoughts on the presidential race in 2008?

Posted by: X Stryker at May 5, 2006 09:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is Bass's tough challenger since Arnie Arneson and Dick Swett.

Posted by: mrcharlesmburns at May 5, 2006 11:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As to the presidentials...it is wide open. With 2006 becoming a watershed year for us, the candidate who helps the most in picking up these congressional seats, taking back the state senate, reelecting Governor Lynch and gaining seats in the legislature will gain great "grassroots cred" up here. Our motto is "2006 first, 2008 next".

Ray Buckley, Vice Chair
NH Democratic Party

Posted by: Ray Buckley at May 5, 2006 01:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Neal,

It's a swap. Darcy Brunner's parents live in NH-2, so you'll just have to pick up the slack for them out in WA, and I'm sure they're going to help out Paul in NH.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at May 5, 2006 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment