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Wednesday, May 03, 2006

NYT on the Northeast Strategy

Posted by DavidNYC

Nothing that readers of this site aren't already familiar with, but it's nice to see the "Northeast Strategy" get some coverage in the Paper of Record. The Times showcases the race in CT-05 between Chris Murphy and incumbent Nancy Johnson. I do think their read on the race's importance in the larger overall scheme of things is wrong, though:

Here in Connecticut's Fifth District, Representative Johnson is exactly the kind of Republican whom Democrats must unseat to have any serious shot of taking control of the House.

The 5th CD, as you know, is the least Dem of all three GOP-held seats in CT. It would be entirely plausible for us to win back the House without beating Johnson. Don't get me wrong: I think Murphy's got a shot, despite the big cash disadvantage, thanks to the favorable external factors which inform this race. But the national outcome is not predicated on the outcome here.

The northeastern races that the NYT lists as being potentially competitive: CT-02, 04 & 05; NH-02; NJ-07; NY-20, 24, 25 & 29; and PA-06, 07 & 08. I would add NY-19 and possibly even NH-01 to that list.

Posted at 12:09 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Comments

NY 3rd. David Deneberg is coming to town. Good bye Peter King

Posted by: Democraticavenger at May 3, 2006 12:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

deneberg declared? i thought he said he wasnt going to run. either way, because he declared so late hes gonna be at a big cash deficit. but hopefully a strong showing will set him up for a 2008 takeover

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 3, 2006 02:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Murphy has a real shot. Up here in CT, there is a lot of buzz about his race. This is his first time running for Congress, and already he's got the stature of the other two challengers in CT, Courtney and Farrell.

While it's true that Johnson has a ton of cash, Murphy will have more than enough to run a real race and to be on TV when it matters. New polls show Bush at something like 25% approval in CT. MoveOn claims to have a poll that shows Murphy and Johnson neck and neck. The Medicare drug program is going to be a disaster for Johnson when seniors hit the "doughnut hole" this summer and fall and have to shell out a couple of thousand bucks of their own money.

Plus, Johnson is SAYING she is "independent" but she's really not making any effort to prove it. While a lot of the other targeted Repub incumbents are voting with the Dems on big issues, Johnson keeps following her fearless leaders, Bush and Boehner. She voted for the Bush energy bill and the Bush budget. She has the worst record in the whole CT delegation on the environment. And she has a terrible record on labor issues.

Johnson's in trouble and she knows it, that's why she's running half a million bucks worth of nasty ads about Chris Murphy when the election is still more than 6 months away.

I'm telling you, this is the race to watch. The NY Times got that much right.

Posted by: CT5 at May 3, 2006 02:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm also surprised NY-19 has fallen so far on the Dems' wish list. Six months ago, that district seemed to be our best hope in NY.

Is there any chance we could take out Melissa Hart in PA-04? The geography of this district seems favorable to the Dems with Beaver and Lawrence Counties mostly contained in the district. Are the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh that Republican that they're able to dilute the Dem advantage on the west side of the district?

A couple of those seats in New Jersey seem like they could possibly be contested as well.

Posted by: Mark at May 3, 2006 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think in the end nh-01 will be more competitive just because Jim Craig is a much stronger challenger and i believe nh-01 is the more dem friendly district

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 3, 2006 03:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

yomoma, NH-02 is much more Dem-friendly. I don't know of the exact partisan spread, but I'm almost certain Kerry won NH-02 while Bush won NH-01.

Posted by: Mark at May 3, 2006 03:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

still - hodes got beat badly last time while Craig was considered a tier 1 recruit who raised 150k in a very short time period. I think in the end, Hodes could come close but not close enough.

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 3, 2006 04:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Denenberg is declaring Sunday. The NY 19th is suffering with unbelievable number of candiates.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at May 3, 2006 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment