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Friday, May 26, 2006

PA-Gov: New Poll Shows Swann Fumbling

Posted by James L.

From Rasmussen (likely voters, April in parens):

Ed Rendell: 52 (41)
Lynn Swann: 34 (44)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

If this holds, the PA Republicans are going to be up the creek this year, with the anemic performances of Swann and Santorum potentially dragging down Republican performance other races, including their most vulnerable Congressional seats (the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th).

Posted at 05:20 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Technorati

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Comments

As much as I hope i am wrong, I wouldn't put too much stock into the idea of Rendell having Coattails, even in the Philadelphia area. Maybe at the state legislature level, which would still certainly be nice coming up on the end of the decade, but all those 4 districts went Republican with the present representatives in 2002 except for PA-08 which was Greenwood at the time. and Rendell won by like 8-10 % if memory serves

Posted by: stebu at May 26, 2006 05:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe he won't have coattails, but if both Santorum and Swann's campaigns seem hopeless, it could depress Republican turnout.

That said, I still think Santorum has life in him and won't go down without at least a very bruising battle. I hope Casey has some mettle in him that I'm not aware of.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at May 26, 2006 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh and I hope you are right, and of the 4 Gerlach in PA-06 was the only one that had real competition that you also. But SE PA has always been known for its ticket splitting. I hear you on Santorum. I read over at MYDD Chris Bowers already choking up PA as a senate gain and that scares me. This race will be close, i do think Casey will win, but it will be a real nailbiter. I don't think Santorum has ever been that popular in either his district or the state but he keeps winning. but again i hope i am wrong

Posted by: stebu at May 26, 2006 07:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think based upon seeing andrew dinniman's win in the 19th senate district that jim gerlach is toast. if the dems are to take over the state house-which is the only chamber that i think they have a chance in hell of winning-they will do so by winning seats in the 4 suburban philly counties. i call them the "septa" counties. i think fitzpatrick can be beat if the dccc wants to do it, weldon is vulnerable but will probably prevail. that repulican machine in delco still functions fairly well. dont forget about don sherwood, he CAN be beat!

Posted by: jcb at May 26, 2006 08:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm surprised by the worry over Santorum. He was way down before Pennsylvania papers started pointing out that he doesn't live there anymore and he started flipping out on live radio. Obviously, anything can happen, but right now it seems like Casey would have to announce he supports NAMBLA or something. Come on.

I'm also hopeful about taking down Weldon. As for Sherwood, I'd say he's toast given his terrible primary performance.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at May 26, 2006 10:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oops--I screwed up the trendlines on the Swann numbers; he was actually at 44% in April. I'll fix it when I get home in a couple hours.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at May 26, 2006 11:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

SO can someone give me a quick update on what happened to Swann? Did he open his mouth or something and actually say what he believes or what?

Posted by: Nindid at May 27, 2006 06:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nindid:

You know that is a very interesting poll. I would have to think that it is showing a little undersupport for Swann. I don't know though. Rendell put up some pretty good commercials focusing on seniors. Were seniors oversampled in the poll because of their lack of cell phones and Rasmussen's use of automatic calling? Don't have the premium numbers so I don't know. Anyway I'll glady take these results.

Posted by: nada at May 27, 2006 08:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rendell went on TV very early and from what I understand, has the money to stay on the air right up through election day, over 14 mil as of the last reporting period to 1 mil for Swann. I've seen some questioning of resisdents whom have seen the commercials and they came off great, "wow i didn't realize rendell has really accomplished so much" type of reaction. Unfortunatly these were just like blurbs in articles so I don't havea source for you. I definately think Gerlach is going down out here in PA-06, then I think the next vulnerable is Fitzpatrick, followed by Sherwood and finally Weldon. But I do think they all can go down and right now I think it will be 2 of 4, although my order may be wrong and it may be Gerlach and Sherwood instead of Fitz. Finally in the senate race, basically Santorum is a great campaigner and to put it nicely, Casey isn't. The one election he lost, 2002 guv primary, he got his butt kicked even though if I remember correctly he had completely lapped Rendell in endorsements including the state party committee and even state Senator Fumo from Rendell's base in Philadelphia. His other elections were against minor oppositions such that I don't even remember any names. And all that talk about him being the highest vote-getter in state history, who cares, it was a high turn-out election, the population has been growing, albeit slowly, and he was up against, whtshisname so people just voted for the name they knew after coming to vote for or against Bush. I do think he will win, but in this case especially I wouldn't put much stock in polls, and speaking of which the same ones that show rendell pulling ahead by double digits, aren't they showing Santorum pulling within single digits? I may be wrong

Posted by: stebu at May 27, 2006 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Look into some of the shocking primary numbers and you will see that in the Republican voters are fed up with their own party. In the 19th State Senatorial district a "D" won in a heavy "R" district. The first "D" State Senator from the county in over 100 years. The Democratic candidate pulled a whopping 41% of the republican votes. My party is crapping themselves. I think it's great.

Posted by: ModGOP at May 27, 2006 10:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

oh i am a dem precinct committeeperson in the 19th district. its great, and as jcb said, i think it is a really great sign for Murphey in PA-06, but looking inside the details of this race only, I don't know enough about the details inside the other anti-republican primary numbers to speak for them but i think it was more anti-payraise incumbancy than anti-republicanism, but in the 19th, i think Dinniman (D) actually had higher name recognition from being on county council for the last 15 years or something like that while Aichele (R) was just elected like 2-4 years ago. Also, while working the polls that day I was speaking to my Republican counterpart. We were getting completed barraged with Aichele direct mailings from the Republican State Committee, literally 2-3 a week and sometimes 2 a day. Even she said that they tried to warn the state committee that that many mailers were just getting annoying and was bringing on a backlash but the committee kept it up and actually increased it as the election drew closer. and there was a backlash as more than a few independents mentioned they were they to vote for Dinniman because they were sick of the mailers. so hey, hopefully i am wrong, i will continue to work and give, but from reading here and MYDD, the 2 blogs i read regularly, it just feels like over-confidence is our worst enemy, especially with defeating Santorum, and it really feels like it is rearing its ugly head

Posted by: stebu at May 27, 2006 11:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Although I am not a premium member of Rasmussen polling, rumor has it the latest poll on the PA senate race is:

Casey - 56%
Santorum - 33%

Poor Ricky.

Posted by: AndTun1 at May 27, 2006 03:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

this is for stebu, i would be very interested in knowing more about that 19th district senate race. you said dinniman got 41% of gop votes. who is this guy-i understand hes a county comm. and is/was a professer at west chester univ? i believe that the dems have to win seats in the "septa" counties to win the state house-which i think is very doubtful, however there is a chance? could u tell me/us what races to watch for in that area? i live in westmoreland county where just the opposite is happening, the gop is making inroads here-they defeated sen. kukovich in 04 over a tv commercial about "gay bars in Phila." will it be a rematch in november between dinniman and aichele?

Posted by: jcb at May 29, 2006 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm a huge fan of the Steelers teams of the 1970s, but I hope Swann gets his butt kicked hard. Why must so many former jocks turned politocos, turn out to be such right wing bufoons - Bunning, JC Watt, Jim Ryun, Steve Largent, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Al Leiter (that one breaks my heart), Charles Barkeley, Jack Kemp, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Tom Osborne, the list goes on and on. Thang goodness for Bill Bradley, a Rhodes Scholar and Democratic exception to the rule.

Posted by: Tom C in NY at July 26, 2006 03:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On the bright side, Charles Barkeley says that the Republican party is too insane for him now.

Posted by: James L. at July 26, 2006 03:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment