Swing State Project

« Ohio Primary Results Wrap-Up | Main | NYT on the Northeast Strategy »

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

TX-14: Terrible Re-Elects for Ron Paul (R)

Posted by DavidNYC

I admit I've been skeptical about claims that the race in TX-14 is a legit second-tier affair. But a new post by Charles Kuffner, covering the details of a poll taken for Shane Sklar (the Dem), might make start to reconsider:

Question: As things stand now, would you vote to reelect Ron Paul to Congress or do you think it is time to give someone new a chance?

Response: 33% Re-elect, 48% Someone New, 20% Undecided

Yes, it's an internal poll, and no, those 48% won't all go to Sklar - but that is seriously fugly for Ron Paul. Maybe these generic polls showing extreme dissatisfcation with Congress actually do mean something.

Now, in a straight-up head-to-head, Sklar gets crushed, 58-37. But he's only got 25% name rec, while Paul is at 88%. Sklar will need to raise quite a bit more money if he wants to get his ID up, but November is a long way off. And for Sklar, increasing his exposure is anything but a fool's errand, as that 48% figure for not-Ron-Paul indicates. Also, after the usual message-testing questions, the head-to-head turns into a 54-30 lead for Sklar. You never want to read too much into those sorts of things, but again, at least it shows room for growth.

Kuff agrees that it probably comes down to money for Sklar, and he thinks it'll take at least $500K to bump this race up to full second-tier status. One of the great things about Texas is that there are a lot of strong bloggers down there, led by Kuff himself, who's been blogging practically since the dawn of time (in Internet years). So we'll definitely have good intel on this race as it progresses.

Posted at 11:47 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2321

Comments

TX-14 starts where my backyard ends and makes up most of my hometown. I jsut want to say that I have met Sklar, he is a strong centrist candidate and is a good fit for the district. A lot of the district is open land and ranches oalong the beach, Sklar is a rancher and wants to focus on agriculture issues in the House. I'm from the northern art, so I don't think he has much appeal to the Friendswood crowd (what Dem does?) but once you get to ALvin and South of that, if he raises his name ID he could very easily make this a very close race.

I sure hope Texas adds three more Dems to the House this year, TX-14 Shane Sklar, TX-21 John Courage, TX-22 Nick Lampson. All of these districts are not competitive because of how the district is populated but by how strong the candidates are. I hope TX-06 (David Harris) switches as well.

Posted by: trowaman at May 3, 2006 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congressman No will be hard to beat in that district. It's hardcore conservative.

I've always been curious if an extremely well-financed media effort spreading the word on Paul's liberarian contrariness would convince folks they would prefer a Rep who doesn't want to entirely dismantle the federal government.

But the only way to win this seat is to peel off Republicans. The numbers just aren't there for grassroots and netroots efforts.

Still, Sklar's focus on ag subsidies does hit on an area of vulnerability for Paul.

Posted by: pinhickdrew at May 3, 2006 02:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Keep in mind that Ron Paul has been against the Iraq war from the beginning. It could very well be that much of Paul's critics are Bush-bots who think he's "dishonoring the troops" and "obstructing our good President during wartime" with his dissent. Much of that 48% may simply long for a more traditional Republican wingnut.

Posted by: Mark at May 3, 2006 02:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With this administration's warmongering, defense of torture and other abuses, illegal eavesdropping, and general belief in dictatorial presidential powers to ignore the law, I'd prefer a libertarian to a "normal" Republican. Of course a Democrat (one with a spine) would be better, especially if it meant retaking the House.

Posted by: KCinDC at May 3, 2006 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Much of that 48% may simply long for a more traditional Republican wingnut.

FWIW, Paul had a challenger in the GOP primary. He won by a 77-23 margin. If they wanted a more reliable Bushie, that was the best chance.

But the only way to win this seat is to peel off Republicans. The numbers just aren't there for grassroots and netroots efforts.

The word I'm hearing is that there are a lot of Republicans who are not happy with Paul because he's just not been an effective representative for them. There may well be some wishful thinking in that, but it sounds plausible to me.

What the netroots can do, of course, is help Sklar raise a few bucks. That's what he needs, more than anything else.

Still, Sklar's focus on ag subsidies does hit on an area of vulnerability for Paul.

The Texas Farm Bureau PAC endorsed Sklar. I think he's the only Dem challenging an incumbent Republican to get that endorsement this cycle. After Larry Combest retired and Charlie Stenholm lost, there were no more Texas Congressfolk who made their living via agriculture. Sklar would fill that void.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner at May 3, 2006 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anybody who is opposed to the administration, but not supportive of Congressman Ron Paul, is living in a paradoxical paradigm. The old ideas of left and right are gone. Look at the voting records of Congress and the Senate. You will find that all 100 Senators vote for the police state/war, while all but about 40 Congressmen vote for the police state/war. In fact, even pseudo-opposition John Murtha is a pro war neocon. The media presents us with a false, shakespearian debate, to make us think we have some sort of choice. Congressman Ron Paul is one of the few that actually votes against administration and its police state/war. In fact, the other member of Congress who votes most closely to Congressman Ron Paul is none other than Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Get past the labels, and help get that great man Congressman Ron Paul re-elected. Why anybody would risk going with somebody who doesn't have a proven track record of voting in favor of the common Americans and voting against the administration is puzzling to me.

Posted by: libertyeconomics at May 4, 2006 01:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment