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Sunday, May 07, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Another exam today (Decedents' Estates). Your turn to gab.

UPDATE: I bumped this post up to the top. One exam (professional responsibility) and one paper (congressional investigations) left! And then I am done with law school! Woohoo!

Posted at 10:06 AM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

FL 7, 12 & 14.
Filing closes next friday and we need candidates to file for these uncontested districts! {correct spelling edition}

Posted by: BENAWU at May 6, 2006 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe either one or both of Minnesota's 6th district endorsement conventions is today (not living there any more, it seems like I've been getting bad information about this repeatedly lately). The good news on the GOP side is that the delegates seem to be overwhelmingly committed to wingnut Michele Bachmann, who's expected to win on the first round of balloting with a majority in the four-candidate race. A Bachmann candidacy is probably the Dems' best opportunity to win this seat. The bad news is that Krinkie has already reneged on his promise to abide by the endorsement, so it won't be over even after today. Furthermore, Bachmann is quite attractive, which will play to her favor among uncommitted voters, particularly yuppie males of which you couldn't throw a rock in this district without hitting 10 of them.

Posted by: Mark at May 6, 2006 03:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark,
The Minnesota 6th GOP's convention was today, and they did indeed endorse Michelle Bachmann. The DFL's convention is next Saturday, and I hope that this district starts to get more attention once we have one candidate. This is an excellent opportunity for a pickup, and hopefully the DCCC gets some money into the area.

Posted by: Max at May 6, 2006 05:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So I posted my big huge rundown on all things Texas related to this topic in responde to the MyDD post today. I think I'll just point ya there instead of posting it here in a comment. :)

Posted by: Karl-T at May 6, 2006 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Any thoughts on the TX-17 from any one

Posted by: xenoph10005 at May 7, 2006 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

How is Edwards and Taylor doing in fundraiseing in the 17th?

Posted by: D in FL. at May 7, 2006 12:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN sixth Republican convention endorsee does indeed move this seat into one of the most competitive. Bachmann represents the social right and will be more polarizing for many voters. Patty Wetterling the probable DFL endorsee has greater name recognition and a better chance to win in this open seat contest.

A sixth district voter!

Posted by: dnul222 at May 7, 2006 07:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is sort of off-topic, but if there are any Minnesota-area bloggers who could spawn a few invites to BlogAds or a similar advertising network, please let me know.

Posted by: JelloAbode at May 7, 2006 10:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From CQ Politics Race Rating changes:

"Rating Change Alert: CQPolitics.com has changed its rating of the race in Florida's 9th District to Republican Favored from Safe Republican. Story: Busansky Shows Strength in Bid Against Incumbent’s Son

Rating Change Alert: CQPolitics.com has changed its rating of the race in New Jersey's 7th District to Republican Favored from Safe Republican. Story: EMILY’s List Backing Gives Stender a Shot at Upset

Indiana’s 8th District (Incumbent — Republican John Hostettler): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

Iowa’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Jim Leach): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Kentucky’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Ron Lewis): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

New York’s 19th District (Incumbent — Republican Sue W. Kelly): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

New York’s 25th District (Incumbent — Republican James T. Walsh): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.The likelihood that Walsh will face a potentially competitive challenge this year, coupled with the terrible political environment facing Republicans nationally and in New York, has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating of the New York 25 race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican. The change means that Walsh remains strongly favored to win re-election, but that a Democratic upset cannot be completely ruled out.

West Virginia’s 2nd District (Incumbent — Republican Shelley Moore Capito): CQPolitics.com is changing its rating to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Wyoming At-Large to Republican Favored, from Safe Republican: Well-Funded Trauner Poses Threat to Cubin

• North Carolina 8 to Republican Favored, from Leans Republican: Dunn’s Drop Out Brightens Prospects for Hayes"

Posted by: Predictor at May 7, 2006 07:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm delighted to see the change in the rating of Rep. Capito's race. She's far and away the strongest Republican in the state, and if we could beat her now, that would seem to greatly diminish her chances of winning a state-wide race in the future. And of course I'd like to see a good Democrat in that seat anyway. It'll be interesting to see who wins tomorrow's primary to oppose her.

Posted by: ArmandK at May 8, 2006 09:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hello,

I would like to recommend a candidate to be considered for your support. Stephen Gorham is running for State Senate in Florida. The seat he is running for is being vacated by Florida Senate President Tom Lee due to term limits. Stephen is the real deal and more importantly can win in what some may consider a “conservative” district. He has been very successful so far and has maintained to stay off of the Republican radar even with good poll numbers. I urge you to consider supporting this candidate and learning more about him at http://www.stephengorham.com.

Sincerely,
Cory Caswell
info@stephengorham.com

-Stephen Gorham is the only Democrat in the Florida State Senate District 10 race. A pool of 3 Republicans, including Ronda Storms (The Hillsborough County Commissioner that banned gay pride) are also eyeing the open seat. In recent polling Ronda Storms is convincing leading the other Republicans for the Republican nomination.

-Recent polling also shows Mrs. Storms with a high negative rating while over 2/3 of voters polled would consider voting for Gorham and Stephen is head to head with Storms if the election were held today.
The next Republican candidate is Hillsborough County Commissioner Rhonda
Storms. Ms. Storms is an outspoken advocate for socially conservative issues. She has led a fight to ban any reference to gay pride events in county buildings and opposed access to health insurance for same-sex partners of county employees. Ms. Storms is a lawyer.

24% definitely consider voting for this candidate
23% probably consider voting for this candidate
18% probably not consider voting for this candidate
29% definitely not consider voting for this candidate
7% unsure

Voters are divided in their support for Hillsborough County Commissioner Rhonda Storms (47:47). There is a gender gap regarding her support with more than a majority of men supporting her (52%), and greater than a majority of women opposing voting for her (51%). A large majority of 35-50 year old voters (55%) and Pasco County voters (53%) would not consider voting for her.

The next candidate is a Democrat, Stephen Gorham. Mr. Gorham is a veteran of the Navy and volunteered to serve in Operation Enduring Freedom after the September 11th attacks. Mr. Gorham has a Master’s degree and works for Hillsborough Community College. He is active in veteran groups and is concerned about issues affecting veterans.

16% definitely consider voting for this candidate
53% probably consider voting for this candidate
17% probably not consider voting for this candidate
8% definitely not consider voting for this candidate
7% unsure

More than two-thirds of voters (68%) would consider voting for Democrat Stephen Gorham. More than a majority of every subgroup feels this way with even higher percentages of voters who will wait for November to vote, younger voters and independents considering voting for him.

Post Information Test Ballots

And if the election for state senator were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were. . .

42% Republican Rhonda Storms
42% Democrat Stephen Gorham
16% undecided
1% refused

Voters are divided in their support of the two candidates (42:42). A majority of independents and Pasco County voters would vote for Democrat Stephen Gorham if the election for state senator were held today.

Conclusions

The data from this survey indicates the Senate District 10 seat should definitely be considered a potential opportunity for Senate Democrats. The results reveal Stephen Gorham is a strong candidate who is very well received by the electorate in this district. The data also shows that Rhonda Storms is a polarizing figure whose candidacy is unappealing to a large percentage of voters. Gorham’s profile tests well with more than two-thirds of voters expressing a willingness to support his candidacy. Storms’ profile, on the other hand, yields high negatives with her advocacy of so-called socially conservative issues appearing to fall flat among a great portion of the electorate.
Assuming Republican voters choose Rhonda Storms as their nominee in Senate District 10, Stephen Gorham has a reasonable chance of winning this seat that typically leans Republican. This seat is definitely a marginal district, but it appears to be a good potential pick-up for Senate Democrats in 2006.

-Storms is a one issue candidate on a personal crusade aimed at punishing the gay and lesbian community. Gorham appeals to the moderate Republican and Independent base and has a real shot at turning District 10 blue

-Gorham is a fighting Dem having served almost nine years in both the Army and the Navy and deployed to the Middle East two weeks after September 11th.

-Gorham has successfully raised $42,000 to date with the bulk coming from under $100.00 donors. Gorham and company are also approaching their 5,000th door knocked on and in last week alone collected over 800 candidate petition to qualify for the ballot without paying a fee.
-This race is not considered a top-tier race for the Florida Democratic Party but is considered an opportunity seat. Gorham attributes his success thus far to a strong grassroots effort and endorsements and assistance from grassroots organizations such as DFA-Tampa Bay. Gorham is also currently competing for the DFA national endorsement.

-Gorham can and will win this race. Storms alienates moderate Republicans and Independents, which combined make up over 30% of likely voters. With the rest of the Republicans and Democrats at almost 50/50 the opportunity for Gorham to be victorious is there. Gorham is married and has a three year old daughter. He is a longtime resident of the District 10 area and also is the IT director at the local Community College. Gorham is the Democrat that has the ability to turn this seat blue.
Below is from Stephen’s DFA page located at: http://www.dfalink.com/campaign.html?id=981

Background: Hello! My name is Stephen Gorham and I am running for Florida Senate District 10. My wife, Rebecca, and I currently live in Plant City along with our 3 year old daughter, Sky Trinity. As a long time resident of the South Lakeland/Plant City area, a recent war Veteran honorably discharged from the U.S. Navy, and the current Director of Networks and Telecommunications at Hillsborough Community College I am very concerned about many issues and problems the local residents face. My diverse background and education allows me to be sympathetic and understand the needs of the residents of District 10. I come from a working class family that worked hard to earn a living. My father, a one-hundred percent disabled Vietnam Veteran, is a former U.S Postal worker, and my mother stayed at home to care for and raise four children.

Goals: I am running because I believe Florida is a great state which deserves a brighter tomorrow. As a veteran, husband, and father I will fight to educate our children, strengthen our neighborhoods, and empower citizens by holding leaders accountable.

Issues: I am committed to providing Florida's children and working families a quality public school system that we can be proud of, safe neighborhoods and communities that we can afford to live in, and creating jobs that pay a living wage to support our families with.

Grassroots Support: Grassroots has and will continue to play a huge role in our success. We are running in a conservative district in Eastern Hillsborough County Florida with many rural areas. This district, as many others in Florida, was Democratic up until about 12 years or so. We have been getting our Democratic message out using Grassroots techniques and strategies for the last 8 months. By utilizing the grassroots methodology of taking our message to the people one neighborhood and precinct at a time, winning over hearts and minds at door steps, and funding a campaign on small donor contributions we are giving back a voice to Democrats in Eastern Hillsborough County. As November grows closer we will need Grassroots more then ever to ensure that our message continues to get out and our donations continue to rise. I truly believe that on Election Day when folks are in the booth they will remember the campaign that sought them out personally not a TV commercial or paper ad.

DFA Values: I truly believe that Ben Franklin knew what he was talking about when he said "Those that would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither." I believe it is essential to protect the civil liberties that our forefathers and countless Veterans fought and in many cases died to keep. I believe that equal protection under the law should apply to everyone and not just groups that meet a certain criteria. I have always believed that taxes are an investment and we should expect a return that we can be proud of on that investment. It is the Government's duty to tax appropriately and fairly in order to promote a society of responsible corporate and private citizens working together for the common good.

Grassroots Supporters

 DFA Tampa Bay - "Stephen fought for us in Enduring Freedom. As a veteran, he will fight for us in Tallahassee."
 Ann Catherine Clark
 Dave Cutler - "All that I want to say cannot be listed here, but Stephen is definitely one of the good guys!"
 Edwin Enciso - "I am volunteering, because I need to believe the people of District 10 are being misrepresented."
 Megan Foster - "I am proud to say that I support Stephen Gorham for St. Senate, Dist. 10."
 Rebecca Gorham - "Stephen will look out for our interest not special interests!"
 Lauren Hallahan - "We need someone who has been to war to understand the needs of our veterans and families..."
 Laura Hensley - "Go Stephen!"
 Michelle Kenoyer - "Stephen Gorham is an incredible leader with a vision who will serve FL well as a State Senator!"
 kathleen mccook - "Progressive Democratic values are important to south Hillsborough County. "
 Frank Moreno - "Please support Stephen Gorham..."
 Gregory Morgan - "I'm not in District 10, but I'm urging all my friends there to vote for you!"
 Frank Perrulli - "All of the issues that Steve has outlined are critical and I support his campaign wholeheartedly"
 Carol Pinson
 Francine Simmons - "Stephen is a Proud FL Democrat and the kind of candidate that I want representing me in Tally!"
 Susan Smith - "Stephen understands the importance of the grassroots in politics. "
 Roxanne Thorn
 Alicia West - "I proudly support Stephen and his campaign. He is the voice District 10 desperately needs!!"
 Fern Williams - "Stephen Gorham will be a voice of reason in the Florida Senate"

Posted by: ccaswell at May 8, 2006 04:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

IL-14: fighting dem John Laesch vs. Speaker J. Dennis Hastert. He's got a real shot, what with all the corruption he is involved with finally gaining some attention, especially the recent bill addition he and Frist and their lobbyists (including Hastert's son) pushed into a defense appropriations bill.

Posted by: Kristen at May 8, 2006 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Brightness melts Snowe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jean Hay Bright will help restore the world we want to live in, a nation without war-profit politics, a nation with health care for all, a nation with fairness and justice for all.

She has bravely been speaking out against our illegal wars (and our current Senator that has endorsed them)since before they started. Jean Hay Bright is a jounalist, an organic farmer and hard-core environmentalist with credibility beyond anyone I can think of. You name any issue and you will get a common sensical and solidly progressive response from Jean. Pro-choice, pro fair trade (vs. "free trade") pro-alternative energy, pro- food purity, pro- civil liberties . . . the list can go on.

Jean's every position runs contrary to our current Bush-enabling Sentor Olympia Snowe. Touted as a "moderate", she has supported the Bush track 82% of the time. She supported Justices Roberts and Alito, Attorneys General Ashcroft and Gonzales, Defense Secreatary Rumsfeld and Deputy Wolfowitz, Secretary of State Rice, and on and on. She sits by while 1/4 million people in Iraq die or get injured, while the administration lies about the wars, about Katrina, about Social Security, about tax cuts, and about national security.

GOP Senator Snowe is such an easy target if we make some momentum for Jean Hay Bright. Snowe has already lost the progressive women's vote with her votes for Alito and Roberts. She lost the conservation vote years ago. 75% of Mainers oppose our occupation of Iraq; Snowe continues to blindly support this war's lies, illegality, and immorality in silence. Snowe actually campaigned for George Bush, saying he is the "man to kep America Safe".

Jean Hay Bright is a perfect fix for our state and our attempt to restore truth and integrity to the US Congress.

We must not allow such a great candidate to wither on the vine. She has received no endorsements or funding from Sen. Feingold's Progressive Patriot's fund or the DSCC.

If people want to retake congress with good people then we must make some noise and kick in some money for all candidates like Jean Hay Bright.

Paul

Posted by: paul at August 20, 2006 12:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Steve Harrison NY 13 (Brooklyn & Staten Island)
This is a highly winnable race that doesn't get the attention it deserves from the Democratic establishment or the media.

Harrison's opponent incumbent Vito Fossella, NYC's only Republican House member, is very vulnerable. His ethically challenged behavior has even made the NY Daily News front page.

Staten Island has a reputation of being a red blemish in NYC's blue body politic because of the many Democrats In Name Only residing in an area with a 3:2 Dem:Rep registration ratio. This is the primary reason why the DCCC, Net Roots etal have not shown Harrison enough love.

But district population statistics tell a different story.

Fossella won by just 33,000 votes in 2004. District voter turnout is 40 percent greater in Presidential election years, cutting the margin of defeat to 20,000 all things being equal (and all things are not equal with many trends favoring democrats).

If 5000 whites over 25 that didn't vote in 2004 vote Democratic because of Iraq or dissatisfaction with Bush the margin shrinks to 15,000.

Harrison persuading 5000 Fossella voters to go Democratic would create a 10,000 vote swing narrowing the deficit to 5000.

88,000 people who belong to Democratic affinity groups youth 18-25 of all ethnicities and blacks and Hispanic adults over 25 didn't vote in 2004.
If 5000 new Democratic voters are recruited from those groups, Harrison wins.

Posted by: RoyM at August 23, 2006 01:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment