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Friday, May 12, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Getting started on the open thread early this week. I have a paper due later today (Congressional Investigations) and then my absolutely last-ever law school final exam tomorrow (Professional Responsibility). Thank the maker!

So, races, people. I wanna hear about races!

Posted at 03:24 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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MN-06 all the way. After the GOP laid out the doormat for DFL victory last weekend by nominating Michele Bachmann as their candidate, the DFL gets to choose between Patty Wetterling and El Tinklenberg this weekend. According to the "Minneapolis Star Tribune", the race is very close with Wetterling perhaps holding a small lead. I could go either way here, seeing the potential upside and downside of either candidacy, but am perhaps leaning towards Tinklenberg now that Wetterling has squandered a bunch of her sympathy and credibility by playing "musical Congressional races" and falling back on her word to Tinklenberg. Also, Wetterling would be easier to demagogue as "too liberal" for this conservative district. Whoever wins tomorrow was hand-delivered an incredible gift from the unhinged 6th District Republicans elevating Bachmann to their standard-bearer. It's the Democratic candidate's race to lose at this point, and I sure hope they don't find a creative way of pulling that off.

Posted by: Mark at May 12, 2006 03:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA-CD-11, come on June 6th so we can see what Pombo gets vs. McCloskey and who the Dem opponent will be.
If Pombo gets under 65% in his primary, he is definitely in trouble.

Although indicted Cong Jerry Lewis R-41 has a heavily GOP district, it would be nice to see Candidate Louie Contreras do some damage. His website seems professional and he may be an attractive candidate. (But this one would be real uphill)
http://contrerasforcongress.com/news.html

CD-41 Voter Registration April 7, 2006

Repub 48.5%
Dem 32.2%
Declined to State 14.6%
Other 4.6%

Bush won it by 25 points, Boxer lost it by 8 points. It is more GOP than CD-50.

Posted by: Predictor at May 12, 2006 04:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

How about TX-Gov? With a second independent joining the race, it looks like the ultimate longshot might not be as far out of reach as we'd assume. If nothing else, I think Chris Bell deserves attention and praise for his role in bringing down DeLay.

Posted by: Kalil at May 12, 2006 04:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund released a poll this week showing Richard Pombo losing to both major Democratic contenders in head-to-head match-ups. It also shows Pombo's re-elect at 35% while 52% of the respondents said they planned on voting for someone else. At the very least, this poll shows that Pombo is a lot more vulnerable than a lot of people believed. I question the head-to-head numbers, but everyone (including Republicans) seems to agree that the re-elect numbers are pretty big news.

Here's a quote from a Stockton Record article on the poll:

Republican political oddsmaker Allan Hoffenblum, co-editor of a guide to legislative and congressional elections, was impressed by the numbers even though pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner's survey was conducted on behalf of the activist group Defenders of Wildlife.

"It's a sign of deep, deep trouble," Hoffenblum, of California Target Book, said. "It's not easy to get a voter to say they'd fire an incumbent."

Pombo consultant Wayne Johnson said the campaign's internal polling does not match the Greenberg poll, but he did acknowledge that voters are sour on Congress in general.

"The atmospherics are depressing for any incumbent in Congress right now," Johnson said. Still, he said the order of questions in the Greenberg poll could have skewed the results.

"You get people in a hanging mood and it can dramatically affect the result," he said.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at May 12, 2006 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Definitely the NY races...

NY-20, 24, 25, and 29 are serious Democrat targets, which is unusual because those are traditionally strong Republican areas. If the DCCC can find more strong candidates in NYC and its suburbs, NY-3 (Peter King), 13 (Vito Fossella) and perhaps even 19 come into play. I never thought Sue Kelly, who represents most of Orange County in NY-19, could be vulnerable, but OCNY has changed from a swing county to VEHEMENTLY anti-Bush since the 2004 election.

I'm buying into this Northeast strategy fully because Bush is most despised in this part of the country. CT-2, 4, 5, NH-1, 2, NJ-2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 (the Prime Numbers) and PA-6, 7, 8 are all potential Democrat gains if the DCCC develops a more coherent agenda and finally gets aggressive.

Posted by: dpinzow at May 12, 2006 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interesting in NY-03 I heard rumors on Mydd that Suozzi might get in and it makes sense. If so that would add a District to the allready big target list in New York.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 12, 2006 08:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I thought David Deneberg jumped in CD-3 that puts it in play

Posted by: Johnny08 at May 12, 2006 10:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NY-3 from Newsday

"Only two days after launching his congressional run, Nassau Legis. David Denenberg (D-Merrick) last night pulled the plug on his campaign against Republican Rep. Peter King, citing his inability to raise enough money and his need for a throat operation this summer."

Posted by: xenoph10005 at May 13, 2006 12:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Run this thread again on Monday and I'll have some *very* interesting news from TX-21. A certain well known financial director I hear is coming on board...

Posted by: Karl-T at May 13, 2006 01:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What is going on in South Dakota.

I saw a poll about a month ago saying that the majority of voters wanted to overturn the abortion ban through a ballot initiative in Nov. Any thoughts on that passing, or if the Governor or Republican legislatures are going to take a hit this Nov?

Posted by: pitin at May 13, 2006 01:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OK 1, AZ 6, NY 3, LA 4,5,6,7 VA 4,6.
CA 42.

WE NEED CANDIDATES HERE

Posted by: BENAWU at May 13, 2006 02:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kudos to Amy Klobochar who put out her numbers this week -- showing a 10 point lead over Rep. Kennedy in the MN Senate race. No doubt W gets a little credit too. Minnesota is "barely blue" but Amy is a great candidate.

Posted by: samrayburn at May 13, 2006 12:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

samrayburn, do you have a link to that poll showing Klobuchar up by 10? I hadn't heard about that. All I saw was a Rasmussen poll showing Klobuchar up by 2. That same poll showed Mike Hatch up by 10 over Pawlenty, which struck me as incredibly optimistic.

Posted by: Mark at May 13, 2006 01:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-SEN: The Hackett situation has died down and for the past few months, Brown was within striking distance of Dewine. But for the first time, Brown actually leads in the new Rasmussen poll. Granted its still within the MOE but I think it is still very good news to hear.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/05/12/in_ohio_brown_pulls_ahead_of_dewine.html

Posted by: safi at May 13, 2006 01:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For all of those of us watching NH-2, CQ Politics has moved this from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored"
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/nh_2_hodes_second_attempt_to_r.html

Posted by: Predictor at May 13, 2006 02:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's an article from CQ Politics as to why the DCCC thinks PA-10 Cong Sherwood-R vs. Carney-D, is in play:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/pa_10_dems_talk_up_chances_of.html

Posted by: Predictor at May 13, 2006 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Obviously I'm interested in NH-2. Predictor, thanks for linking to the CQ article. I think it goes some way toward addressing an issue David has discussed here at SSP, namely the fact that many candidates have inauspicious runs their first time as a candidate, and improve greatly the second time around. Obviously we think that's the case with Paul, and I think the CQ article conveyed some of his evolution as a candidate.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at May 13, 2006 04:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"staffathodesforcongress": You're most certainly welcome & guess you are most definitely interested in this contest!
I noticed there is no map of the district on your site (PS- Bass has none on his). Alot of Congresspersons and Candidates are using maps from National Atlas, if I may suggest this as a source: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/congress.html#nh
Granted these maps do not show the lines of municipalities, which in NH would be a definite criteria.
One of the reasons I checked this was to determine if either Derry or Merrimack are in your District, I have rels there I can lobby for vote/support.
PS - I think you've got a great opportunity this year, I'll be watching this race. Best of luck!

Posted by: Predictor at May 13, 2006 04:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm actually fighting with the website at this very moment. It should be spruced up by tomorrow evening, and I'll try to get the map on there. If not this weekend, we'll definitely work with our web people to get it on there.

Thanks!

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at May 13, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

PA primaries are Tuesday. Thank goodness.

Posted by: Adam B at May 13, 2006 04:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, it is Patty Wetterling for DFL in Sixth District MN. After 7 ballots opponent calls for voice vote for Patty. On to the election ....she is well known and respected and will have even chance in republican leaning district that is upset with Bush!

Posted by: dnul222 at May 13, 2006 06:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am very interested in MN-6 after the nominating conventions of the last two weekends. I am tentatively thinking that Michelle Bachmann getting the GOP nod will aid us in taking that seat - Bachmann is very conservative, even for that district, and her behavior on gay rights issues has been downright bizarre. On the other hand, if Bachmann does somehow manage to win, we have another repulsively right-wing to send to Congress, rather than someone who may have been slightly more tolerable.

As for Wetterling getting the DFL nomination today, I am also somewhat optimistic. Tinklenberg may have been a better fit for the district, but Wetterling's name recognition and funding are much higher than Tinklenberg's. I believe either of them would have been able to win against Bachmann.

Posted by: bogun at May 13, 2006 07:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MI-11 Tony Trupiano.
This is the greatest chance to switch from Republican to Democratic in 2006 in Michigan, a blue state. Trupiano's is the candidate who can do it.

An outspoken, proud Democrat, Tony Trupiano is not afraid to take on difficult or controversial issues -- and won't back down to placate critics. It's no surprise that he has been endorsed by former Senator Max Cleland and Impeachpac.org. He is not only what we need in Michigan's 11th, he is what we all need in Congress. He is ready to be a voice for change.
His is truly a grassroots campaign with hundreds of volunteers who have been walking and calling voters since January.

Michigan's economy has not rebounded like most of the rest of the country, and raising money is especially difficult here. Many people in the 11th district have jobs tied to the auto industry and fear (with good reason) further job losses. Most people know someone who lost a good job. The 11th district is home to the Wixom Ford plant which will be closing.

The 11th has a grassroots effort, the volunteers, and a passionate Democratic candidate in Tony Trupiano. He needs help with fundraising.

The incumbent Republican, Thaddeus McCotter, has parrotted the party line and offered nothing in the way of leadership. He is running scared. The district he designed for himself (while in the State House) is a very close one, and it has moved toward the Democrats in the past four years. The past two months have seen repeated mailings to voters and robocalls trying to distance himself from his far-right record. He has refused to return (or donate) money received from Tom Delay's PAC, and he's hoping voters in his district won't notice.

Tony Trupiano is going to win in Michigan's 11th District. Attention from the Swing State Project will make things a little bit easier. It won't change what's happening in the district. Tony Trupiano has been fighting hard, and he has an army of volunteers who are as passionate as he is about change. Check out the website: www.Tony4Congress2006.com.

Posted by: Treehuggin at May 14, 2006 05:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NH 1 covers the state's 18 miles of seacoast between Massachusetts and Maine, including the liberal enclave of Portsmouth, snakes west in Rockingham county, excluding Nashua the state's 2nd largest city on the Massachusetts border and then bolts to the north. North of Portsmouth, the district line hugs the Maine border on it's way into the Lakes Region and Carroll County, the last bastion of "old" New England conservatism (In the dictionary, see: Judd Gregg), not the so called brand being practised in D.C. today.
The incumbent, popular two term Rep Jeb Bradley, son of respected Wolfeboro former small business parents, may find his seat in play due to the failed policies of the Bush administration, even in Carroll County.
When Jeb went back home for spring break in March, he held a town meeting in Wolfeboro to guage the mood of his constituents and he got a snootfull.
Bear in mind that in this part of New Hampshire, some brave souls sport the following bumper sticker on their cars: "Courage is a Carroll County Democrat."
The following is excerpted from the coverage afforded by the Granite State news, the local paper on March 30, 2006.
" Wolfeboro's native son,Congressman Jeb Bradley, held a town meeting Monday night at the Wolfeboro Town Office, and found many residents who believe he had changed. Edie DesMarais of Wolfeboro told the standing room only crowd that she had known Bradley since he was a teenager. She said when he was involved in NH politics and served in the NH legislature for 12 years he was an independant thinker and she counted on his votes to match his convictions. But since going to Washington he has become much more likely to vote with the Republican Party, said Desmarais.
Bradley noted several exceptions of votes he cast that rivaled the traditional beliefs of the Republican Party.One such vote was for embryonic stem cell research.
DesMarais said she has been doing a lot of work on low-income housing and she is saddened when she reads that the people who qualify as low income today used to be the country's middle class. She said they are all teachers,policemen, firemen, etc. She said the middle class is disappearing.
Bradley said when he first came to Washington, unemployment in the US was more than six percent. It is now under five percent. He said that was what he considered to be one of the most important numbers in the economy.
DesMarais said there might be more jobs bu what are they paying if the middle class is disappearing? She finished by saying, "we want the old Jeb back". This comment was greeted by a thunderous applause by the audience.
The major issue of debate was the war in Iraq. Many questioned how Bradley could continue to support what was called "Bush's war".
One man sais, "this war was started with a pack of lies.". This comment received more applause from the audience." END OF EXCERPTS>

And so it went. New England has 22 house seats, 17 of which are held by the Democrats; three of Connecticut's five and both of New Hampshire
's two are in Republican hands. Barring a 180 degree change in the current political environment, don't be surprised if all 22 are in Democratic hands after the election.

Posted by: saugonian at May 14, 2006 07:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Colorado -

I have been following Colorado all of the Colorado congressional races very closely, and am a volunteer on Ed Perlmutter's campaign for CD-7.

The interesting news today is breaking in CD-6, where Tom Tancredo (R) faces Bill Winter (D.
Bill leaked it in a DailyKos comment.

Paul, I got our initial polling back for CD6. Wanna a preview on what we found in our so called conservative district?

Bill Ritter and Bob Beauprez are dead even!

All the national polling numbers hold up in CD6!

And when given my name, my bio, and the fact that I'm a Democrat, versus Tancredo's name, his bio, and the fact that he's a republican....

...I came out on top 47% to 45%!

That's in Congressional District Six, folks, the supposedly unwinnable district!

If these numbers are valid then Fighting Dem Bill Winter has an excellent chance of putting together a real race.

Posted by: TakeBackTheHouse at May 14, 2006 09:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am a little out of touch with PA. congressional races as I am in Indiana. Is there a chance for a pickup in Pa-13? Any one know?

Posted by: IndyDan at May 15, 2006 04:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Look at CD-5 in Colorado. Centrist Jay Fawcett has recent polling showing that a Democrat can win in the heart of Dobson country. (I will admit to being connected to the candidate for State House District 21 - located within Jay's CD-5) Jay leads a full slate of Democratic candidates trying to send a message to the centroids of the Republican party that even their base is crumbling. Give Jay's campaign a look - if we can do this it is a BIG coup.

Posted by: El Paso Rockefeller Republican at May 16, 2006 12:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i am gonna have to go with ca 11 too. Things are really heating up in the democratic and republican primaries. Jerry Mcnerney and Pete Mcloskey are both awesome candidates.

3 good blogs:

http://saynotopombo.blogspot.com
http://progressive11th.blogspot.com
http://www.refpub.com/PomboWatch/

Posted by: malik5470 at May 16, 2006 05:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Is there a chance for a pickup in Pa-13? Any one know?

Eh? The incumbent in PA-13 is Democrat Allyson Schwartz, in no danger of losing that I've heard of. The GOP challenger, a political neophyte, doesn't even have $100K cash in hand as of the last filing (end of April). Schwartz started the cycle with a huge warchest and has more than a million of it left for November.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at May 16, 2006 09:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment