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Saturday, May 20, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Today is the New Orleans mayoral run-off (Nagin v. Landrieu), so I'm sure that's on plenty of people's minds. What else ya got?

UPDATE: NOLA results here. (Thanks, D.)

Posted at 05:06 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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I wish Swing State Project would occassionally point readers in the direction of NH-2, where Paul Hodes is running for Congress against Charlie Bass, a faux moderate who in fact votes with the Republican leadership 89% of the time.

Actually, we're almost slightly embarassed by the excellent posts David has written about our race and our campaign, and the great comments those posts have elicited from the readers of SSP. Thanks.

Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at May 20, 2006 05:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd suggest tracking races that will impact control of the state legislatures in swing states. For example, in Oregon, the challenge by Rob Brading to GOP Speaker Karen Minnis -- and the recent poll that shows the race tied, despite her $150,000 in spending this spring.

Posted by: Kari Chisholm at May 20, 2006 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the second tier races in Texas right now. TX-14 and TX-21 are starting look better. I learned last night that Ron Paul has a libertarian challenger, how weird is that? So much for funding fromt he national libertarian party.

The other two races missing from this week's cook political report were NE-01 and WV-02, I'd like to see some more movement on those two as well.

Posted by: trowaman at May 20, 2006 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in hearing the real status of the Democratic primary in MN-06. I know that Elwyn Tinklenberg finally conceded to Patty Wetterling and called for a vote of acclimation on the seventh ballot at the MN-06 DFL Caucus. Has he withdrawn officially from the primary? Is he still listed on the ballot? Is there any possibility that he may still actively challenge her in the for the nomination? And are there any polls that show how Wetterling fares against Bachmann?

Posted by: phonatic at May 20, 2006 06:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah New Orleans is on my mind Go Landrieu!!!!!
but also i got the usual all the FL races FL-08, FL-09, FL-13, FL-22, FL-Sen, FL-Gov. And also Arizona Senate i'm interested to see a follow up poll on the one that showed Kyl with a weak 7 point lead.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 20, 2006 06:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Im just waiting for the Virginia primary (June 13th) so Webb can move ahead with his plans to de-testicle George Allen.

D in FL - Whats our best pickup chance in Florida?

Posted by: AlecBGreen at May 20, 2006 07:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As always, I'm interested in (read: working on) VA-05, where Al Weed just locked up the nomination to challenge Representative A (Virgil Goode of MZM scandal fame) for the second time. Al secured the nomination about 6 hours ago (story at RaisingKaine) and he's starting his rollout tour tomorrow.

With all the talk of the culture of corruption on blogs, none in the online community seem interested in beating Virgil Goode. We hear a lot about the independent swing, and the incumbent backlash: Virgil was elected as a Democrat and his 65% of the vote continued even after he switched to the Republican party, so the district is loaded with independents sticking around for the incumbent (not for long!). We hear a lot about fighting dems: Al is a 42 year veteran, fought in Vietnam as a Green Beret, and has a son leaving for Iraq right now (he's also in the HBO series Baghdad ER tomorrow night at 8).

We read in Crashing the Gate how we need to energize the base: Al is as principled and as progressive as they come. We read also that Democrats need to establish the infrastructure to push the progressive movement forward outside of election season: Al started a thinktank called Public Policy Virginia to research and promote Switchgrass, higher education, Universal Healthcare, and their applications in rural Virginia.

Al was crashing the gate before the book was conceived, and this race is an example of everything going right with the progressive movement. I still haven't heard an argument for why I'm being unrealistically optimistic, except from those old-school pundit types who don't recognize the most basic concepts of the blogosphere's counter-conventional wisdom.

Oh well. I can't force you to pay attention, nor would I want to. So if you're unconvinced, I'll just have to wait till we get our first poll numbers and Virgil doesn't break 50%.

Posted by: msnook at May 20, 2006 07:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here is a good source for results for NOLA mayor.
http://www.nola.com/

Posted by: D in FL. at May 20, 2006 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not to spam comments, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention this article (via AmericaBlog) about the Duke-stir.

Dukie wasn't cooperating with the investigations into other members of congress (a.k.a. Katherine Harris and Virgil Goode) -- until now. Sweet.

Posted by: msnook at May 20, 2006 09:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have been following the mayor's race in New Orleans with great interest due to my daughter being a freshman at Tulane. My proposal to the folks at DNC is that who ever loses the election tonight (hopefully Ray Nagin)should be used to pry Jefferson loose from his house seat. This would help close the avenue being used by the MSM that corruption is a bipartisan problem.

Posted by: Lancearoo at May 20, 2006 10:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah but Lanceroo that's why I'd prefer Nagin wins, I'd like to see Landrieu go far.
Let Ray clean up the mess and prove himself.

Posted by: Predictor at May 20, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dammit Nagin won by 4%

Posted by: Johnny08 at May 20, 2006 11:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Keep in mind that ole Ray endorsed Jindal-R over Blanco-D. for Gov. Trust this guy?

Posted by: Predictor at May 20, 2006 11:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nagin was a Republican until just before he ran for Mayor. In my mind, he remains a Republican.

Posted by: DHinMICH at May 20, 2006 11:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ditto and that's why he can rely on the Bush Admin to help him out.

Posted by: Predictor at May 21, 2006 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Somebody asked me about what is our best chance in FL for pickup. I would say 22nd by far the 13th 9th and 8th are all second tier but they could switch if the stars allign right. Also on the FL Governorship the Republicans have the money but Democrats seem to have the support.

Posted by: D in FL. at May 21, 2006 01:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

JUNE 6- PRIMARIES IN 8 STATES INCLUDING CALIFORNIA WHERE FRANCINE BUSBY & JERRY McNERNEY COULD MAKE HISTORY

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2006/05/june-6-primaries-in-8-states-including.html

Thats whats up!

Jerry Mcnerney is taking on a dino to take on pombo in california. its another grassroots against the dlc deal. Messy yea...but these fights are for the future and direction of our party.

Posted by: malik5470 at May 21, 2006 03:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I found a second poll with the Kyl lead falling apart by over 10 points. This one is from the Arizona daily star.

Kyl 45% (60)
Pederson 35% (28)

Posted by: D in FL. at May 21, 2006 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN-06

Phonatic,
Tinklenberg will not be challenging Patty Wetterling in the primary. Like most people, I'm still not sure which of the two would have been best to take on Bachmann, but now that Wetterling's the nominee, hopefully local activists, unions, and national organizations will unite behind her.

This is a very conservative congressional district that went for Bush by a 57-42 margin. However, Wetterling outperformed Kerry against incumbent and "rising star" Republican Mark Kennedy (now running for US Senate), losing by just a 54-46 margin (203,669 votes to 173,309 votes- a difference of 30,360 votes). In 2002 (the only other race since the fairly dramatic redistricting of this district following the 2000 census), Kennedy trounced DFLer Janet Roberts 57-35 (164,747 votes to 100,738 votes).

Tinklenberg himself moved to have the convention support Wetterling, and will not actively petition to put his name on the primary ballot, despite Wetterling's broken promise.

The only poll I've seen is from January and has Wetterling over Bachmann 43-38. I found it on Wetterling's website, and I'm unsure of whether it's an internal or not. Wetterling's name recognition was considerably higher than Bachmann's, and her favorable-unfavorable was at 43-33, vs. 17-15 for Bachmann. Apparently, the same poll saw Bush drop from a 57% approval rating in the district in January 2005 to a 40-59 approval-disapproval ratio in January 2006.

With an open seat, an extremely conservative opponent, Bush's sagging poll numbers and (presumably) a good year for Democrats nationwide, Wetterling should be in a good position to improve upon her total from the previous election. This seat should see equal blogtime, discussion, and dollars as those in the Northeast (remember the 50-State Strategy?). MN-06 is a must-win district if we are to retake the House in '06.

Posted by: Max at May 21, 2006 07:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think peter king vulnerable now in ny3 ......democrat county legislator david mejias set to challenge....in a democratic year in an increasingly democratic county,peter king can be beaten......mejias is young,energetic and will be a formidable challllenger.

Posted by: jjj at May 21, 2006 09:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

mejias announced? got a link. i thought he said he wasnt running a while back

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 21, 2006 10:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In regards to MN-06, I wrote an e-mail to the Mike Hatch campaigning recommending El Tinklenberg be looked at as a running mate in the gubernatorial race. Tinklenberg would help Hatch make inroads to the northern Mpls-St. Paul suburbs (which I contend are a must-win if Pawlenty is to be beaten); has a nominal pro-life position on abortion that could help bring in conservative Democrats; and could help assuage hard feelings over the endorsement debacle with Wetterling, thus improving the odds for Wetterling in MN-06, and Hatch statewide.

Predictably, I didn't get a response from the Hatch campaign. They may not have even read it. But if Hatch can't tap into Rochester's legislative chameleon Sheila Kiscaden as his running mate, Tinklenberg would be the next best choice....at least of the ones on my radar screen.

Posted by: Mark at May 21, 2006 11:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the Nagin thing was lose-lose. Now that he's won, we have to deal with the Republican-in-Democrat-clothing, not to mention having him thrown in our faces when he says stupid things about God sending hurricanes.

But had he lost, all the stories would have been about how NOLA's residents clearly blamed their Democratic mayor for what happened.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at May 22, 2006 04:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

regarding mejias the long island newsday reported last week that he would challenge king.jjj

Posted by: jjj at May 22, 2006 09:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We (meaning the various wings/parts/aspects of the Democratic Party) need to get rid of Bill Jefferson NOW! It's starkly obvious to all but the blind loyalists and the incredibly stupid that the man is a crook who belongs in jail, and the quicker he's cut loose the better.

Does anyone know anything about potential Democratic challengers?

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at May 22, 2006 12:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, IndianaProgressive, LG Mitch Landrieu, though Mitch might be more interested in a future Governor's run, would be nice to see him take over Jefferson's seat.
-------------------------------------------
On NY-3, I'm not finding any official press on Mejias re-entering the race. I did find this though, which alludes to it:
http://kingwatch.blogspot.com/2006/05/dave-mejias-for-congress.html

Posted by: Predictor at May 22, 2006 01:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, its two weeks and a day until the California Primaries and CD-50 election,my focus will be CA for the next couple of weeks. I still have to make decisions on local races between a bunch of great group of very competitive candidates.
I'm monitoring for any polling, Field is usually my poll of choice, hopefully they will come out with something before election day.
In the meantime, here's a link to a good article on CA-11 (Pombo-R):
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/ca_11_pombos_reelection_bid_lu.html

Posted by: Predictor at May 22, 2006 01:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark,
I read your diary on dKos regarding your letter supporting Tinklenberg for Lieutenant Governor. Is there any indication he would accept such an offer?

Also, I don't know if you've been reading any local blogs, but it's actually been a rumor for quite some time that Hatch has already selected Kiscaden. Here is the latest post I could find from a simple Google search, but I've seen others in recent weeks.

I actually think there may be something to having a ticket "balanced" in terms of gender. This could prove especially beneficial in the suburbs. Also, Kiscaden gives us the added benefit of being highly regarded in another key battleground, Rochester. This may help in holding on to some of the State House seats we won just last cycle, and could possibly help Tim Walz in his Congressional race in MN-01.

Posted by: Max at May 22, 2006 02:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Max, no indication that Tinklenberg is either interested in the post or having any chance of it being offered. Gubernatorial candidates seem to go along with the premise that the ticket needs to be gender-balanced, but I'm skeptical of the benefit. Very few voters pay attention to running mates of gubernatorial candidates, and I submit the only way votes are won on the issue is based on the geography of the running mate. In this case, my selection of Tinklenberg would be an outreach to the northern metro area suburbs, while your selection (and admittedly an even better one) of Kiscaden would really help in Rochester, although I'm skeptical of her ability to win over Pawlenty-leaning women voters.

Thanks for the link. I hadn't heard anything about Kiscaden possibly aligning with Hatch, but the thought crossed my mind considering she's a free agent now with Doran out of the race.

Posted by: Mark at May 22, 2006 03:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mitch Landrieu definitely has timing on his side if he wants to challenge Jefferson, but I'm not optimistic that he will. I get the feeling he wants to stay close to Louisiana for the time being, honing his credentials as a grab-the-bull-by-the-horns local political leader fixing the devastated Gulf Coast region. Furthermore, if Landrieu was defeated by a second inferior incumbent in New Orleans over the course of just a few months, his political career would almost certainly be over. Losing to Ray Nagin has to be a bad enough black eye....even the possibility of losing to Jefferson (particularly if it's based on race) would be disastrous. Anybody know of any other local political leaders in New Orleans capable of taking on Jefferson?

Posted by: Mark at May 22, 2006 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think some new orleans city councilman who just won re election has hinted at a run

Posted by: yomoma2424 at May 22, 2006 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

IL-17 there are 5 Dem candidates on the ballot to replace Evans

Rock Island Mayor Mark Schwiebert
Quincy educator Rob Mellon
St. Rep. Mike Boland
St. Sen. John Sullivan
Congressional Aide Phil Hare

Posted by: Johnny08 at May 22, 2006 05:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bill Winter and Jay Fawcett in CO-5 & 6. They are both making significant pushes - Winter is out polling Tancredo in CD-5 and Jay is running for Joel Hefley's open seat and showing winnig poll numbers. Jay just got Wes Clark's endorsement and this is following several others. This is an area where real gains can come with even greater impact.

Posted by: El Paso Rockefeller Republican at May 22, 2006 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, MN-06 is great. But, in 2002 this district was horrobly mangled in a supposedly 'bipartisan', redistricting plan that just happened to pt Kennedey in a damn near unbeatable district, put Luther in a Republican leaning district, and leave Ramstad and Gutneckt relatively safe. This bipartisan redistricting plan cost the Democrats one incumbent, and left the Republicans with the newly solidified Incumbent Kenndey. Wetterling already has about 180 thousand dollars cash on hand, but she still has an astounding 1.2 million dollars in her senate fund that she can transfer over at anytime. I think ultra-conservative State Senate Bachman is just too Conservative for this district. Plus, the Republicans have had a pretty draining primary, as far as resources and funds go. Bachman, including the U.S. Senate account, is about 900,000 dollars behind Wetterling, and that could be the winning movement. Kennedy will probably not win the Seante Race, meaning he will come back here in 08, and could probably beat Wetterling since he beat a ten term Democrat in a Democratic Leaning district back in 00. So therefore my advice to her is to raised a ton of money, just keep raising it and raising it, she has been a hugely profolic fundraiser. Then announce at the last minute that you're going to challenge Norm Colewell for U.S. Senate. After all the guy only won in a very good Republican year, and even then he only beat Mondale by a few thousand votes. It was virtually tied at 50-50. A strong, moderate, and extremely well funded candidate like a U.S. Represenatative Wetterling could make him sweat, and possibly beat him. Especially considering that Wetterling would be well positioned to perform much better than Mondale in Colewell's suburban base that gave him the state.

Posted by: ArkDem at May 22, 2006 08:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ArkDem, a few points about Minnesota....

The only way Bill Luther would have saved his seat after redistricting is if the Dems controlled the process, dividing Ramsey County between MN-06 and MN-04 and likely saving Luther and McCollum. As bad as the redistricting seemed, it would have been worse had the Republicans gotten their electoral map approved, Minneapolis and St. Paul would have been in the same district and Oberstar's MN-08 district would have covered the entire northern third of the state, as opposed to northeastern quadrant. Had this map been approved, the Dems wouldn't have lost two seats in 2002, but two or maybe even three.

Gutknecht's seat didn't change much in terms of partisanship after 2002 redistricting. The southwestern Minnesota counties generally lean Republican, but the margins usually aren't catastrophic. In the long-term, losing exurban Le Sueur, Rice and Goodhue Counties, which are filling up with hundreds of new Republicans each year, could end up being a plus for MN-01 Democrats.

Kennedy certainly could lose in '06 and then challenge Wetterling in '08, but the track record of losing Senate candidates successfully returning to the House isn't great (remember Scotty Baesler?). And Kennedy beat incumbent David Minge in 2000 after only four terms by Minge, not 10, and that district by no means leaned Democrat. By 2000, its population center was the western exurbs of Minneapolis, some of the fastest-growing counties in the Midwest and now Republican by supersized margins. Bush won it by nearly 15 points in 2000 and even better in 2004.

Let's see how Patty conducts herself in this campaign and/or as a Congresswoman before we start putting her up to challenge Coleman. I have been underwhelmed by Wetterling's political instincts thus far and am skeptical that she'd be capable of taking down the very skillful pol Coleman. I don't really have a favorite horse in that race yet. The next year and a half should produce someone prominent to take him on.

Hope I didn't seem like a know-it-all smartass....but I love talking Minnesota politics. :)

Posted by: Mark at May 22, 2006 11:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well I don't pretend to be an expert on Minnesota Politics, I know only what I can scavage off the internet and from political sites, but I can't help but notice that Republicans got a pretty sweet deal, at least in the short term. To of their 4 term 94 incumbents got pretty much left alone, by that I mean both districts where almost the same presidentially. They were Gutneckt and Ramstad, who won Dick Penny's-D and Rod Grams-R open seats in 1994. Ramstad was actually given a somewhat less Republican district, so was Guteneckt, but both are secure until they retire, mostly due to the fact that they are fairly moderate, and that both were a good bit more moderate than Kennedy, the supposedly 'moderate' rising star in Republican politics, and far more so that the very conservative John Kline. But, I can see that the Democrats have the long term good deal. The GOP will eventually have to play defence in two districts that went for Bush by 4 and 3 percentage points respectively, and Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar remain in an evenly balanced but conservative Swing District, and a Blue Dog Democrat district. Do You post on KOS, if so what is your user name. I would also have to disagree. Wetterling definetly has some political skills if she was able to hold a young, and extremely well known GOP Incumbent, who was very much touted as moderate, even though he was not, to a closer race than Bush.

Posted by: ArkDem at May 25, 2006 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can't link the article, but it was in Newsday. Mejias is running and announced it on Wed at the Nassau County Democratic Convention. Mejias is my Legislator. Hopefully next year I will be voting for another Legislator with Mejias in Congress.

Posted by: Smash255 at May 26, 2006 02:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ArkDem, I do post at Daily Kos under the username "Mark27". I write alot about Minnesota there so you have probably seen some of my work.

The Republican did improve their odds after 2002 redistricting, even more so at the state Legislature level where DFL-drawn districts of the 1990's became decidedly less friendly, particularly in rural Minnesota. That created a perfect storm in the 2002 midterms when a bunch of lean-Republican House districts unseated Democratic incumbents. You are right about Tim Penny being unseated by Gutknecht in 1994, but Ramstad was elected to his seat (in the western Cities suburbs) four years earlier. Rod Grams was a one-term incumbent from district the eastern suburban district, and was replaced by Democrat Bill Luther in 1994, who hung on for four terms before his district was divided and the two new districts swung to John Kline and Mark Kennedy. Wetterling fared as well as she did in 2004 against Kennedy mainly because Kennedy made himself vulnerable with some of the sleaziest attack ads you've ever seen (Osama bin Laden...Saddam Hussein...Patty Wetterling) that disgusted enough Republicans and independents to help Patty overperform expectations. Kennedy probably blew his chance at a 20-point victory with those attack ads, which gives me comfort regarding his campaign skills in this fall's Senate race.

In my home district of MN-01, most predictors are giving energetic Fighting Dem Tim Walz at least an outside chance of prevailing against Gutknecht given the district's trendline away from the GOP. It's a longshot, but Gutknecht hasn't had a serious challenger in quite awhile, so it'll be intriguing to see how the man performs now that he does have one.

Posted by: Mark at May 26, 2006 09:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment