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Wednesday, June 21, 2006

AZ-Sen: Kyl Maintains a Comfortable Lead

Posted by James L.

From a local Arizona State University/KAET poll (registered voters, April in parens):

Jim Pederson (D): 29 (31)
John Kyl (R): 43 (42)
MoE: ±5%

Now, I have issues with a sample size of only 384 voters for a poll like this, but given what looked like a major boost of momentum for Jim Pederson's campaign last month on the heels of his latest ad campaign, numbers like these have got to be frustrating. Still, even if this poll isn't an outlier, a 43% re-elect is shaky ground for any incumbent Senator. There's still plenty of time for this race to tighten up, but I hope it happens sooner rather than later.

PS: If you're looking for a reason to doubt generic congressional ballot polls, it should be this:

Finally, more voters in heavily Republican Arizona now say they would prefer to see the Democratic rather than the Republican party control Congress after the elections this November. Forty-five percent said they would like to see the Democrats control Congress, 39 percent prefer the Republicans and 16 percent were not sure which party they would prefer.

Funny how, when push comes to shove, that same 45% who would prefer Democratic control of Congress can't completely bring themselves to voicing support for Pederson. However, the silver lining is that, with some persuasion, the Pederson campaign has an opportunity to convince these Democratic leaners to, you know, actually vote for a Democrat.

Posted at 12:06 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Technorati

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Comments

Still, by the old "any incumbent under 50% is in trouble" rule Kyl can't rest just yet.

Posted by: dantheman at June 21, 2006 01:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This poll is garbage.

First of all, although a 5% MOE is better than the 7% MOE in the recent Lieberman-Lamont Rasmussen poll, it isn't entirely convincing. Polls with a 4% MOE or better are seriously worth considering.

Secondly, 28% are undecided. Did they push ANY leaners off the fence? I know Rasmussen likes to push all leaners, and that doesn't make a great poll either, but has ANYONE in AZ made up their minds?

Thirdly, there is no link to the poll internals. How does the support (and the ridiculous number of fencesitters) break down by party affiliation and party ID?

Posted by: dpinzow at June 21, 2006 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

June Zogby Arizona Senate:
Kyl 48.4%
Pederson 41.7%
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

Posted by: Predictor at June 22, 2006 05:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment