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Tuesday, June 06, 2006

California and Montana Predictions Open Thread

Posted by James L.

Polls close in under a half hour in these two states Montana, so take a breath and hit me with your best shot. Of course, like Stoller, I'm not going to make any predictions (though I do have a few things rumbling around in my gut besides the stuffed peppers I'm digesting). I don't want to slant your guesses, but the NRCC is sounding pretty confident, according to the Hotline:

NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (NY) said earlier today that, based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50, ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) held about a 10K vote lead. Reynolds added, however, that he wouldn’t make any predictions at this early stage.

Posted at 09:32 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, California, Montana | Technorati

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Comments

I'll make two projections....

Tester 51, Morrison 49 in Montana.

I would have never guessed Tester had a chance even a month ago, but I will defer to the numerous sources citing his momentum. Morrison's ongoing scandal hasn't hurt either. Honestly, I could live with either of these guys, but since I think either can beat Burns, I'll pulling for Tester who is more my kind of Democrat.

Bilbray 48, Busby 46, Others 6

I might be generous to Busby here after her misstep regarding the voting rights of illegal immigrants. With or without the misstep, however, I was already convinced that Busby was gonna be the first casualty of McCain-Kennedy immigration policy.

Posted by: Mark at June 6, 2006 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CD-50: Find that incredible as NO absentee results are EVER to be released to anyone till 8:01pm PST. If this is so that is a complete violation of Elections Law.
Of course this is the Gop and they will do as they please.

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't get it, the absentee ballots that the msm has told us for days would be slow to return?? HOW many times are they going to get away with this?

Posted by: desi at June 6, 2006 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Matt Singer had a nice writeup of how the momentum was swinging to Tester over the past few days over at Left in the West.

Based on that--Tester 53, Morrison 47.

As for Busby, as Mark said earlier, I'd have gone with Busby until the "papers" comment. Now, I'd say Bilbray by a nose, *unless* those voters most susceptible to an anti-immigrant spiel decide to vote for the anti-immigrant candidate, a guy named Griffith, I think.

Posted by: Raf at June 6, 2006 10:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From past experience (2000 general) the Gop has used ploys like this to supress turnout. I don't buy that its anything other than that. If the first report from SD County shows Bilbray 10K ahead, we'll know how truthful this RNC report was.

The only County expected to have late Absentee returns is Alameda, all the rest should report early (but after 8pm).
Projection is that Absentee vote will be 40% of total. If that report is true, unlikely Busby could make up the diff.

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 10:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm guessing he's basing it on the voter registration.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at June 6, 2006 10:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

They can also be making predictions based on what absentee ballots have been returned. That info is available to poll watchers and the number of R and number of D absentee ballots returned can be tallied.

I think a wildcard in this might be the percentage that the anti-immigration nut pulls. If it approaches 10 percent, I think Busby wins. Are there that many wingnutcases? You make the call.

Posted by: Inigo_Montoya at June 6, 2006 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rosenburg wrote a good article about this phenomenon - here you have a really, really bad GOP member - caught red handed - and the democrats don't convert the seat.

The conclusion is inescapable. America needs a new party. Period. Bush is a threat to the constitutional democracy and his cronies are getting re-elected because of what? WHY?

Democratic party can't battle a guy who was caught red handed lying, and stealing - they couldn't win a seat that was wide, wide open.

The party is DEAD

Posted by: turnerBroadCasting at June 6, 2006 10:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"The conclusion is inescapable. America needs a new party. Period. Bush is a threat to the constitutional democracy and his cronies are getting re-elected because of what? WHY?"

Because they are in extremely Republican districts. If Busby wins it would be a miracle. If she loses that doesn't mean she is a terrible candidate or that we have no chance in November, regardless of what the media will claim. We get our hopes up way too high in some of these races.

Posted by: James B at June 6, 2006 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA CD-6 Marin & Sonoma Absentee:

Woolsey 28,483 65%
Nation 15,210 35%

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You overestimate the interest, energy, attention span, and knowledge of the average voter. There is *nothing* in the estimated projected turnout numbers that is inconsistent with off-year primary results.

*WE* may be galvanized but *WE* are not the typical voter. Absorb the reality and deal with it.

Posted by: Inigo_Montoya at June 6, 2006 11:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA CD-6
Absentee Vote from Marin & Sonoma
Woolsey 28,843 65%
Nation 15,210 35%

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 11:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kinda Good News Kinda Not so great. Bilbray did not take the A/T vote by 10K, its 3K and the Indies are getting more than 6% of the vote.
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
20448
50.60%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
17329
42.88%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
1846
4.57%

PAUL KING - LIB
792
1.96%

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 11:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CD-11 Santa Clara County A/T

Republican CONGRESS 11TH
Vote For 1
0/35 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
PAUL N. ''PETE'' MC CLOSKEY, JR. 497 47.20%
RICHARD W. POMBO 491 46.63%
THOMAS (TOM) A. BENIGNO 63 5.98%
Total 1,053 100.00%

Democratic CONGRESS 11TH
Vote For 1
0/35 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
JERRY MCNERNEY 533 57.07%
STEVE FILSON 249 26.66%
STEVE THOMAS 140 14.99%
Total 934 100.00%

Posted by: Predictor at June 6, 2006 11:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wow, those are awesome absentee numbers for McCloskey. I'm fairly shocked here.

Posted by: James L. at June 6, 2006 11:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA-11 All Counties from the Secretary of State's Website:

Dem:
Steve Filson...4,235 (28.7%)
Steve Thomas...2,775 (18.8%)
Jerry McNerney..7,725 (52.5%)

---
Tom Benigno...1,322 (6.4%)
Pete McCloskey...6,428 (31.2%)
Richard Pombo...12,867 (62.4%)

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at June 7, 2006 12:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment