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Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Chris Bowers Is an Insomniac

Posted by James L.

Alright, I'm heading to bed. Workdays that start at 8am tend to have this effect on me at midnight (fabulous Mountain Time). Until then, to fix your agonizing need for CA-50 updates and analysis, head on over to MyDD, where eternal nocturnal Chris Bowers is on a mission to see this through until the bitter end. Dude must be hooked up to an IV of caffeine.

UPDATE (DavidNYC): Okay. With 46.4% of the vote in, this is how I see things:

• If there is 40% turnout, Busby needs 55.22% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 49.26% to reach 47%

• If there is 35% turnout, Busby needs 56.94% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 50.01% to reach 47%

• If there is 30% turnout, Busby needs 60.36% of the remaining votes to reach 50%, and 51.49% to reach 47%

I include the 47% figure because I think that's about the minimum total Busby could win with. No matter what, she needs to run well ahead of where she's run so far in order to pull this one off. I don't know what primary turnout is usually like in CA - anyone have any numbers?

Anyhow, don't forget that no matter what the outcome, there will still be a Busby-Bilbray rematch in November, and Francine will still need our help.

Posted at 01:56 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

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Comments

As for myself, I've had a lot of Barq's.

But not as much insight. Lots of numbers though.

Posted by: RBH at June 7, 2006 02:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Penguin Mints are my secret

Posted by: Trinhmaster at June 7, 2006 02:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What is turnout usually like in CA primaries?

As of a few minutes ago, my numbers tell me that if Busby is to reach 50% with a 40% turnout, she needs 54% of the remaining vote to go her way. If she is to reach 47% (which would also be good enough for a win), she'd need 49% of the remaining vote.

Either way, she'd need to run a lot higher in the remainder than she has in the votes that have already been counted.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 7, 2006 02:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've got a big fat headahe but I'm still awake. I'm about to throw in the towel on Westly & Busby, there is no traction for either of them. Precinct returns seem to be mirroring the absentee vote.Westly lost his home county & the Bayarea. Busby was not able to make up this % difference at this point in the primary.
Anyway,
The Speier/Garamendi & Strickland/Maldonado races are cliffhangers. Looks like Chiang, Bowen, Parrish, Lockyer, Brown,Bustamente & Congs Harman, Woolsey & Pombo are all headed for a win.

California
2006-06-07 06:42:47 GMT (i) = incumbent = winner = runoff
Governor - - Dem Primary
11497 of 23124 Precincts Reporting - 49.72%
Name Party Votes Pct
Angelides, Phil Dem 612,635 47.17
Westly, Steve Dem 568,965 43.81
Becnel, Barbara Dem 35,422 2.73
Brouillette, Joe Dem 21,685 1.67
Strimling, Michael Dem 18,826 1.45
Macaluso, Frank Dem 15,922 1.23
Greene, Vibert Dem 13,883 1.07

U.S. House - District 50 - Special General
Del Mar
182 of 500 Precincts Reporting - 36.40%
Name Party Votes Pct
Bilbray, Brian GOP 31,057 49.68
Busby, Francine Dem 27,860 44.57
Griffith, William Ind 2,520 4.03
King, Paul Lib 1,078 1.72

Posted by: Predictor at June 7, 2006 03:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

U.S. Congress District 11
24.1% ( 155 of 642 ) precincts reporting as of Jun 7, 2006 at 12:08 am



Candidate Votes Percent

Democratic
Stephen Nigel Filson 6,186 29.2
Stevan Thomas 3,746 17.7
Jerry McNerney 11,225 53.1

Republican
Thomas (Tom) A. Benigno 1,645 5.9
Paul N. "Pete" Mc Closkey, Jr. 8,978 32.5
* Richard W. Pombo 16,976 61.6

Posted by: Predictor at June 7, 2006 03:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The forecast turnout for CA as a whole was in the 34% - 38% range. I would say it will likely be on the low end of that range. Hopefully, the CA-50 turnout was higher.

Posted by: Jeff in CA at June 7, 2006 03:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment