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Saturday, June 10, 2006

CT-Sen: Major Movement For Ned Lamont

Posted by James L.

Just in case you missed it (after all, a lot of the major blogs are more focused on some kind of weird comicon that I wasn't invited to), Quinnipiac released a poll this week that's showing some huge movement for Ned Lamont against Joe Lieberman.

Among registered Democrats (May 2 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 32 (19)
Joe Lieberman (D-Inc.): 57 (65)
(MoE: ±3.6%)

Among likely primary voters (no trendlines, includes leaners):

Ned Lamont (D): 40
Joe Lieberman (D-Inc.): 55
(MoE: ±4.5%)

The numbers really speak for themselves. Lamont's strong performance at the recent state party convention gave his campaign a huge lift in terms of credibility and coverage, and CT Democrats are increasingly viewing Lamont as a viable alternative (you can even sense it in the tone of the local news coverage, as seen in the YouTube clip linked above). The best part is that Ned only has room to grow: a full 73% of Democrats in the state haven't heard enough about him to form much of an opinion. From my point of view (and from Josh Marshall's, apparently), the more you hear about Lamont, the more you like the guy as a person, and as a Senatorial candidate.

However, Lieberman's got a ripcord ready, if he chooses to pull it before facing the primary. As an Independent candidate in a three-way match-up between Republican Alan Schlesinger and Ned Lamont, Lieberman has a huge edge (registered voters, May 2 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 18 (13)
Alan Schlesinger (R): 8 (10)
Joe Lieberman (I): 56 (56)
(MoE: ±2.1%)

All hell would break loose if Lieberman were to do this, with the state Democratic Party and the DSCC being forced to make some difficult choices, but that doesn't matter to Joe. As of today, he's still keeping his options open, caring more about self-preservation than supporting his own party.

Frankly, I never expected Lamont, a guy who began this campaign with zero name recognition, running against a third-term Senator with a deep history in state and national politics, to hit this level of support, especially not this early. If Lamont can do this well with a full three quarters of the Connecticut electorate not knowing enough about him to form an opinion, then he's got a fighting chance--not only in the primary, but in a potential three-way free-for-all in November.

Posted at 02:05 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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Comments

i know absolutely nothing about CT politics so id like to ask some ??? #1-what is the situation with debates-is lieberman running away, has lamont called for any yet? #2 when is the primary? #3 is the primary an open primary-like NHs or is it closed, what? #4 is CT a same-day registration state? who has endorsed lamont yet-prominent endorsements i mean?

Posted by: jcb at June 10, 2006 05:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pertinent questions, jcb.

1. Debate situation: From the latest article I read, Lamont has said that he's been "informally" asking for debates during the entire duration of his campaign, but Lieberman isn't biting yet.

2. The primary: August 8, 2006

3. It's a closed primary as far as I know.

4. I'm not sure if CT has same-day registration. Are there any readers who do?

5. Lamont endorsements: DFA (including Howard Dean's brother, Jim), Moveon.org Political Action, National Organization for Women. I'm probably missing some. I'm not sure if there are any/many state officials who are endorsing Lamont. (I'm sure there are some at the local level, though.)

Posted by: James L. at June 10, 2006 06:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

thanks for the help james, 2 more ??? though. whats been going on regarding fundraising-it seems like lamonts been catching a bit of fire of late-is that being seen in his fundraising. thats usually a tell tell sign. also why did now endorse lamont, i thought lieberman was solidly prochoice-what would lead them to take a chance on lamont when theyve got-i assume solidly-pro choice lieberman? was it his judicial votes, that "gang of 14"?

Posted by: jcb at June 10, 2006 10:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anytime, JCB.

The NOW endorsement was made for the exact reasons that you suspect: his judicial votes (ie. not filibustering Alito) and the Gang of 14 dealie, as well as his attitudes on emergency contraception.

Fundraising: you have to remember that Lamont is a bit of a self-funder (the guy is worth between $90 million-$300 million). He started off the campaign saying that he'd inject a little bit of "seed money" into his effort, and then let the rest be up to fundraising. But now that he's getting momentum, he's making signals that he's increasingly willing to put more of his own cash on the line.

I'm not sure how he's doing on the money front at the moment, but the netroots themselves have pumped in $220k into his campaign on Actblue alone, which is a hell of a lot for the online community.

Posted by: James L. at June 10, 2006 11:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My girlfriend, who grew up in CT, says:

"I'm positive that the primaries are closed, or at least they were from 1979-1999.

I'm also nearly sure that there is not same day registration, unless that has changed in the last few years."

Posted by: James L. at June 11, 2006 12:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One Word:

CoNEDicut

Posted by: leaveonlyfootprints at June 11, 2006 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh, and did anyone notice that the font in Liberman's attack ad is meant to make Meet ned Lamont look like Meet the Fockers?

Posted by: leaveonlyfootprints at June 11, 2006 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment