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Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Primary Elections Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Obviously, VA-Sen (Webb vs. Miller) is the big show tonight. What other races look interesting?

UPDATE (James L.): For Virginia results, keep your eyes peeled on this page. We'll post other sources to keep track of the results as we find them.

Posted at 12:09 PM in 2006 Elections, Open Threads | Technorati

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Isn't there a showdown on the GOP side for the Maine gubernatorial race? Anybody with inside information about that race? Who is Baldacci most likely to face? And who do we hope Baldacci faces?

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 12:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Survey/Usa's latest poll shows a 3 way tie in the ME Gop Primary:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=ab8adcd9-cd11-4098-8f44-4259748f44b9&q=28413

Former Cong Emery should have the edge however he may split the Mod/Lib vote with St. Sen Mills and let the more conservative St. Sen Woodcock squeak by. Read: we hope Baldacci faces Woodcock.
.............................................
On VA: My intel from there says Miller will win, I find this hard to believe based on recent primaries, esp. the last LG Primary, in which the more liberal candidate squeaked by because of a crowded field (Byrne). My gut tells me Webb will pull this out and that is who I am hoping for. Although Miller is the more "liberal" candidate versus the former Dem turned Republican turned Dem Webb, Webb has racked up out of state endorsements from Wes Clark, John Kerry & Chuck Schumer and in- state from former LG Candidate & Frmr Cong. Byrne and Cong Cand CD-5 Al Weed. Miller has endorsement from former LG Beyer. Silence for the most part from Warner/Kaine. Alot of those attached to Robb have endorsed Webb.
VA Primaries allow cross voting, this could be an interesting factor.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 01:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can't imagine Virginia Democrats wouldn't go with electability here. Webb has a shot at winning....Miller doesn't.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 02:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Agree Mark, however, CA voters recently went with the least electable candidate for Gov.confounding that logic that was presented in every poll.

Unfortunetly Miller would be trounced by Allen and given the pick-up opportunity in VA-2 (Tidewater) and also the potential with VA-5's Weed vs. Goode, it would be best to have Webb at the top of the ticket.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 02:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If anyone is interested, Not Larry Sabato (notlarrysabato.typepad.com) is covering the VA primary. So far it looks like turnout is light which I think would help Harris Miller. Its going to be closer than people expected...

Posted by: AlecBGreen at June 13, 2006 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Miller also pumped in $500k of his own cash in the past couple of weeks into the race, which I think caught the Webb campaign off guard.

I'm hoping for a Webb victory myself, and that he can manage to somehow salvage support after a very, very bitter primary.

Posted by: James L. at June 13, 2006 03:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The largest stock of Dem primary voters is in Fairfax Co./Arlington/Alexandria No. Va corridor. I believe Miller was Fairfax Co. Chair at one time. That could be the fate sealer. Webb should do well in Tidewater, Roanoke,Richmond burbs and all rural areas, which may or may not be enough balance.
I'm going to monitor local sites in each of those areas to get some sort of indication as to how it might go.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 05:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Its a horserace.
Miller
16,907
48.75%
Webb
17,777
731 of
2403
Precincts
Reporting

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 07:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like a nailbiter in the Virginia primary. With 29% of the precincts in, Webb leads Miller 51-49. The bad news for Webb is that no numbers seem to be in yet in northern Virginia, where Miller is expected to run strongest.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 07:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ouch, with 41% of the vote in, Miller now leads by five.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 07:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I created a VA-Sen open thread, BTW.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 13, 2006 07:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Faifax Co. 64 out of 162 Precincts:
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, COUNTY OF FAIRFAX
TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 2006
PRIMARY ELECTIONS

Member United States Senate
votes
Total Ballots Cast: 25421
Harris N. Miller (D) 9648
James H. Webb, Jr. (D) 15400

Member House of Representatives 11th District
votes
Total Ballots Cast: 12909
Andrew L. Hurst (D) 6540
Ken Longmyer (D) 5116

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You gotta hand it to these Virginia bean counters. They're getting this vote counted FAST. 59% in now with Webb leading by a point.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 07:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Haha; well, they didn't really have a lot to count, Mark.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 13, 2006 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maine's primary totals are not in as yet, folks.

Only 82% of precincts reporting thus far; and the turnout was absolutely pathetic!

Our 17 yr. olds (who turn 18 by Nov.) can vote; and they didn't bother...frustrating.

We also have very liberal absentee voting laws (I voted 2 1/2 weeks ago), so it's not as if it's difficult to cast a ballot here....

Totals thus far are here:

http://bangornews.com/election/2006_primary/

It's a **squeaker** (less than one percentage point) between Jean Hay Bright (my candidate, for sure) & Eric Mehnert (against 'Limp Snowe in the Senatorial race); and also between the three Rethug Gubernatorial candidates (Woodcock is ahead; and is farthest to the right).

www.jeanhaybright.us

Expect perhaps two recounts; although, I'm unsure re: whether Jean and/or Eric can afford one (both should be fairly broke by now).

Mills might request a recount against Woodcock (Rethug Gubernatorial primary).

McCain came to stump for Emery, and that went nowhere...even the Rethugs didn't show up, which is odd (they'd vote in a raging blizzard)....

Statutory specs on recounts in ME:

http://tinyurl.com/rbqgh

Baldacci didn't do well w/the base activists--quite a few cast protest votes w/Miller; and Baldacci faces one Green (Pat LaMarche--the Greens need to pull 5% total ballots cast in that race, or they lose their status); 3-4 independents; and the one Rethug in Nov.

He can't afford to tack too far to either the left or to the right...wow.

All seats are up for grabs in the legislature; and we have a "TABOR" ("let's starve the social program funding) wedge issue on the citizen's initiative this fall.

Should be a corker.

"Roger and out".

Posted by: mainefem at June 14, 2006 07:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment