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Monday, June 05, 2006

RI-Sen: Chafee and Laffey in a Dead Heat?

Posted by James L.

The Providence Journal reported new polling numbers released by the far-right Club For Growth last week on Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey's primary challenge to vacillating Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee (May 21-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Lincoln Chafee: 45.7
Stephen Laffey: 44.3
(MoE: ±5.66%)

At a sample size of 300 "very likely" Republican primary voters, and a Margin of Error of 5.66%, that's a pretty crappy poll to begin with, nevermind the fact that it was commissioned and released by the Laffey-boosting Club For Growth (a PAC with a habit of supporting some of the most unpleasantly extreme elements of the Republican Party). So take it for what it's worth.

Posted at 07:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Rhode Island | Technorati

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Comments

I highly doubt we are that lucky, but I'm definately praying for Laffey to pull this out, but Chafee is probably the only member of the Republican party i dont mind seeing in Congress as long as we keep him in check

Posted by: Johnny08 at June 5, 2006 08:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Never trust a poll that gives the results in far more detail than the margain of error can justify. MOE of 5.66 and they announce the results to the tenth of a point? Why not call it 46-44? With the MOE, the results could be anything from Chafee ahead by 51-39 to Laffey being ahead 50-40. And of course, with a good poll, the results will be outside the MOE 5% of the time.

Sorry for the rant. I had to get that off my chest.

That said, if Laffey is anywhere within striking distance of Chafee, I am very, very happy. I am crossing my fingers that the poll is on target.

Posted by: hilltopper at June 5, 2006 08:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm wondering how many Club for Growth endorsed candidates there are right now, I can name 8 off the top of my head

TX-28 Henry Cuellar
MI-7 Tim Walberg
ID-1 Bill Sali
OH-Gov Ken Blackburn
OH-4 Jim Jordan
NE-3 Adrian Smith
CO-5 Doug Lamborn
NV-2 Sharon Angle

Posted by: Johnny08 at June 5, 2006 08:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you know any registered Republicans in Rhode Island, make sure to remind them that Chafee's a Republican in Name Only. Although Pat Toomey's organization feels that pretty much any Republican who voted for Arlen Specter's amendment to increase funding for various popular programs is a RINO that should be Clubbed for Growth (Republicans who voted for it include Trent Lott, Bill Frist, Thad Cochran, Chuck Grassley, and Pat Roberts) but Chafee kind of actually deserves to be called a RINO. I believe he's voted against the estate tax repeal in the past (if failing to standing up for the kids of the ultra-rich doesn't make you a Republican in Name Only, I don't know what does).

Chafee has a decent chance at winning this November, even in a year like this. Laffey would have probably had a hard time winning the seat in 1994.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at June 5, 2006 09:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think any poll on Republicans in RI is useless. Republicans make up an entire 16% of the RI electorate, while Independents make up 45. I really feel like all polls on this race are useless because we don't know know how many Independents will show up. This is one of those races, that is really all about turnout. Its widely known that Independents generally don't show up in big numbers in primaries

Posted by: safi at June 6, 2006 12:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I definitely agree, safi. One of the things the Providence article mentioned was that the poll was composed of Republicans over Independents by something like an 85%-15% margin. It seems unlikely that turnout will be like THAT. Maybe some Dems might even cross the fold to vote for Chafee, now that they don't have much of a primary to vote in (due to Brown's exit).

Posted by: James L. at June 6, 2006 12:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, if I lived in Rhode Island, I would vote for Laffey in the primary, not Chafee. It would be a strategic vote, helping give Laffey the nomination so that Whitehouse could steamroll him in the general election! If anyone here has any Democratic or left-leaning independent friends in Rhode Island, I suggest, no, scratch that, I EXHORT you to float this strategy out to them! Chafee might be a "good-guy Republican," but he still adds a number to their caucus . . . a number that keeps us from having a majority in the Senate.

Posted by: The Caped Composer at June 6, 2006 09:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Johnny08,

The OH GOP candidate is Blackwell, not Blackburn.

Posted by: Vadranor at June 6, 2006 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment