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Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Tuesday Poll Round-Up: RI-Sen, RI-Gov, TX-Gov, TX-21

Posted by James L.

Lots of polls lately to share. First off, there's some good news from Rhode Island, where Democrats are gaining momentum:

RI-Sen (Brown Univesity Poll, registered voters, February in parens):

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 38 (35)
Lincoln Chafee (R-Inc.): 37 (40)
Undecided/Decline to answer: 25 (26)
MoE: ±3.5%

Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 55 (44)
Steve Laffey (R): 25 (29)
Undecided: 20 (27)
MoE: ±3.5%

RI-Gov (Brown, Feb. in parens):

Charles Fogarty (D): 39 (35)
Don Carcieri (R-Inc.): 44 (46)
MoE: ±3.5%

The same poll shows President Bush with a dismal 20% approval rating, and a mediocre 51% for Senator Chafee. Whitehouse is really making a race of this one, and don't believe any spin you may hear that this is an unwinnable race if Laffey doesn't knock off Chafee in the Republican primary.

And some noise from Texas:

TX-Gov (SUSA, likely voters, May in parens):

Chris Bell (D): 20 (18)
Rick Perry (R-Inc.): 35 (41)
Kinky Friedman (I): 21 (16)
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I): 19 (20)
MoE: ±4.2%

Perry is clearly weak, but this is just such a clusterfuck of a race. Troublingly, Chris Bell is only getting 44% of the Democratic vote and losing broad swaths of white liberals to Kinky Friedman's quirky indie bid. I understand the position of a Texas Democrat who's reluctant to rally around the Bell campaign after seeing hopeless defeat after defeat at the statewide level for a decade, but with the field this fractured, a consolidated Democratic base could be a threat to Perry.

TX-21: The John Courage campaign writes in to share some weak numbers on Congressman Lamar Smith (one of Tom DeLay's biggest allies in Texas):

In a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of 500 likely general election voters June 18-21, 2006, only 31% said that they would vote to re-elect Lamar Smith. (MoE +-4.4%)

This is an anemic number for an incumbent, as that number should on average be closer to 45-55%. The voters want change, and we've got a man of the people that is a teacher and a veteran who wants to be their representative.

Smith has a weak 49% personal favorability rating in this lean Republican district, and there's clearly room for Courage to mount a vigorous campaign against him.

Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, 2006 Elections - State, Rhode Island, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

Whitehouse's insurgency in Rhode Island is not isolated to this poll. I was skeptical of Chafee's prospects for defeat at the hands of anybody but Steve Laffey, but at this point his vulnerability on both fronts seems very plausible. Nonetheless, I'm hoping Laffey takes him out in September (too bad we can't get more poll numbers on that race) because Chafee will likely get a bump if he bests Laffey by a reasonable margin. Also bear in mind that the 37% who say they'd vote for Chafee vs. Whitehouse likely excludes conservative Laffey supporters who don't believe Chafee will be the Republican on the ballot in November, but MAY gravitate his way if the alternative is a Democrat.

I think we're two months away from having a legitimate handle on how this race is likely to size up even going under the assumption that Chafee will prevail over Laffey. For me, it's the toughest race to call of all the battlegrounds.

Posted by: Mark at June 27, 2006 02:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Great post, James. And I love that you highlighted the Courage campaign! btw - it's "John" with an "h".

:)

Posted by: TracyJoan at June 27, 2006 03:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oops! Thanks for spotting that, Tracy-J. I'll give it an edit.

Posted by: James L. at June 27, 2006 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Troublingly, Chris Bell is only getting 44% of the Democratic vote and losing broad swaths of white liberals to Kinky Friedman's quirky indie bid. I understand the position of a Texas Democrat who's reluctant to rally around the Bell campaign after seeing hopeless defeat after defeat at the statewide level for a decade, but with the field this fractured, a consolidated Democratic base could be a threat to Perry.

Man, I've been singing that song for months now. Every time I see a car with either a Kerry/Edwards or a KPFT (local Pacifica radio station) bumper sticker alongside a Friedman sticker, I want to drag the driver out of the car and beat him or her senseless. I can't begin to tell you how frustrating this is.

The good news is that Carole Strayhorn has been stuck in the mud lately, which has helped make her claim that only she can beat Rick Perry look ridiculous.

Finally, the Bell campaign just hired grassroots/activist fave Glen Maxey, which I hope will help bring a few waverers back in line. I hope.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner at June 27, 2006 04:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The biggest stat that pops out at me is Lamar Smith's 31% reelect number.

What did he do to piss off that many people in a lean-Republican district?

Maybe John Courage has a chance there.

Posted by: dpinzow at June 27, 2006 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Personally, I hope that Strayhorn gains ground among Republican and conservative Independents so that she drags Perry even lower.. The problem is, that our 2 optimal candidates, Friedman and Bell are both evenly taking 41% of the vote versus Perry's 35%. If Friedman fades away, then Bell is the one to support in this instance. However, if Friedman starts to catch fire, then he might be the one to support in this race over Bell. The thing is, a lot of Friedman voters otherwise wouldn't vote at all, or would vote for Strayhorn without the option of Friedman, so it's not exactly like Friedman and Bell draws the same support.

Anyhow, I REALLY think that TX-21 has been overlooked by national pundits and by many of us here. If Courage can spark a high turnout of the University of Texas and West Austin, he pretty much has the election down. I really wonder what Delay was thinking when he decided to put a Republican incumbent inside of UT and West Austin... that's simply not smart.

Posted by: KainIIIC at June 27, 2006 10:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Utah Republican Primary for the 3rd Congressional District is really close. The issue is over immigration and if the Republican incumbent loses the primary it shows that the Republicans are split over immigration which could help us in November. The incumbent is John D. Jacob and the challenger is Chris Cannon.

CURRENT RESULTS (1.77% precints reporting)

CHRIS CANNON 55.93% (1,765 votes)
Incumbent John D. Jacobs 44.07% (1,391 votes)

For official results visit: http://electionresults.utah.gov/election/

Posted by: Craig at June 27, 2006 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry I mixed up the incumbents
Chris Cannon is the incumbent, my mistake.

Posted by: Craig at June 27, 2006 11:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We have to win Rhode Island in order to win back the Senate. The math and analysis does not support us taking back the Senate if Republicans hold RI. Things are looking good but we need to keep at it Whitehouse is a good candidate and we need to back him with all we got.

Posted by: D in FL. at June 28, 2006 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, Texas is Texas. We like our politics rough. :)

The extended details on the Courage/Smith poll are very telling. In the head to head informed ballot, Courage actually beats Smith by 8%. Hopefully I'll have that part of the poll in a day or so.

Posted by: Karl-T at June 28, 2006 12:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Craig, thanks for keeping an eye on UT-03. While Cannon has pulled this one out, the results show that there is some serious simmering over immigration (not that we didn't know that already). Hard to see how this will play out in the fall in more competitive districts (UT-03 is actually THE most GOP district in the nation), but I don't think it's good for Team Blue.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 28, 2006 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd like to add another comment to the analysis of the Bell campaign in Texas.

First, Texas voters, except for their conservatism, don't treat independent candidates any differently than other states. Independents act as spoilers and that's about the extent of their effect. I can't remember what Perot drew from the 1992 and 1996 presidential race but it was no where near enough to be a viable candidate even in his home state.

Second, Friedman's a nut case, a fringe candidate that is attracting attention because of his celebrity and outrageous stands. People like him now because of that, but vote for him for governor? I realize this is the state that gave us Pappy Lee O'Daniel and Ma Ferguson and that Friedman got his signatures to get on the ballot but he won't get more than 5% by November.

Third, Carole Keeton Strayhorn is a very serious candidate, a former mayor of Austin and the STate comptroller for at least two terms. She's got money, unfortunately a lot of it from big time Democratic contributors. But no one can really identify her likely voting base and this leads to the Fourth issue.

Fourth, Texas has a high GOP base vote, over 40%. it also has a decent but lower base Dem vote of around 38%. I could run for a state wide race in TExas and I could count on that 38%. with a little effort, I can get to 45% Lots of different candidates have run as Dems and they seldom get more than 45%.

Fifth, Chris Bell is a very serious candidate and a great human being. I have known him for years, first as a reporter, then as a lawyer, then on Houston City Council and later in Congress. he has some serious ideas and would make a great governor.

Finally, the point of this, I suppose, is to make the best argument I can for Chris. Strayhorn's likely effect is to depress Perry's vote. She's been a GOP officeholder for years and has no campaign points that will convince Dem voters to change their minds and vote for her. Her money and ideas can't do anything but take away Perry votes. if Chris gets his message out to nothing more than the party faithful, he can reach 40% and probably better than that. that means a potential Dem governor. it's worth sending a few bucks his way - with some cash, he can really turn some heads. take a look at him.Texas Monthly just did a piece on him and you can find him at www.chrisbell.com

Posted by: mike_charlton at June 28, 2006 12:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

in the same way you can say strayhorn will knock down perry's numbers, friedman will take some liberals away from bell. strayhorn will also take away from dem leaning indepedents. i think the end result will be a narrow win for perry over friedman, with bell way behind.
maybe perry 38 %, Friedman 34% Strayhorn 14 % Bell 14 %

Posted by: yomoma2424 at June 28, 2006 02:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kinky Friedman isn't going to get 34% of the vote, even in Austin. there's not much liberal about Kinky when you listen to what he has to say.he's a flash in the pan.

much of the Texas Dem vote is either African American or Hispanic and they have shown much if any inclination in the past to vote for independent candidates. Theirs is usually a straight party line vote. Liberals will come home to Chris especially if he gets close enough to be the only alternative to, as Molly Ivins describes him, Governor Good Hair

Posted by: mike_charlton at June 28, 2006 02:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

At what point do we advocate Dems voting in the RI republican primary for Laffey? Are there any polling numbers on that race? If its close, why not? Is their primary system open or closed?

Posted by: Nick Alex at June 28, 2006 04:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From what I understand, it's neck-and-neck among Republicans. But independents are the deciding factor, as they outnumber Republicans in RI. As far as I can tell, RI has a partial-open primary where only independents can vote in any party's primary if they so choose. That's why about 12k Rhode Island Dems changed their voter registration to independent--presumably to support Chafee, but you never know.

Posted by: James L. at June 28, 2006 05:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment