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Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Virginia Primary Results

Posted by James L.

VA-SEN: 41.66% 56.22% 59.43% 65.29% 73.53% 85.14% 92.38% of Precincts Reporting

Harris Miller (D): 26,831 (52.60%) 40,916 (49.18%) 43,641 (48.58%) 48,025 (47.68%) 52,148 (47.73%) 59,266 (47.08%) 63,354 (46.75%)
Jim Webb (D): 24,179 (47.40%) 42,276 (50.82%) 46,185 (51.42%) 52,703 (52.32%) 57,117 (52.27%) 66,606 (52.92%) 72,165 (53.25%)

It looks like it's gonna be Webb. It's Jim Webb. Kudos to the VA netroots and the Jim Webb campaign for winning this one despite being heavily outspent.

Posted at 07:42 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Technorati

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The State Totals with Miller in the lead do not show Webb's strong showing in Fairfax Co.
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, COUNTY OF FAIRFAX
TUESDAY, JUNE 13, 2006
PRIMARY ELECTIONS

Member United States Senate
votes
Total Ballots Cast: 25421
Harris N. Miller (D) 9648
James H.Webb, Jr. (D) 15400

Member House of Representatives 11th District
votes
Total Ballots Cast: 12909
Andrew L. Hurst (D) 6540
Ken Longmyer (D) 5116

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 07:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That was 62 of 164 Precincts in Fairfax Co.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 07:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Where are you getting your numbers, Predictor?

Was Fairfax supposed to be Webb's stronghold, or Miller's?

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 13, 2006 07:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Miller
48,330
47.65%
Webb
53,089
52.35%

1587 of
2403

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Go here for Fairfax Co. http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/webreports/countywide.htm

Well, hell, Miller was a County Chair there, I thought No. Va was going to be Miller territory, it looks quite the opposite. Tidewater & theRichmond Burbs are evenly split. Miller is doing better in Afram communities. webb is doing well in SW (Roanoke area). If Fairfax & Arlington continue their pattern, it looks like Webb has it as the turnout in Richmond and other areas where Miller is doing well is much lower.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

182 out of 226 VA-11
Member House of Representatives 11th District
votes
Total Ballots Cast: 14196
Andrew L. Hurst (D) 7193
Ken Longmyer (D) 5645

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Webb carries Virginia Beach 3,652 to 3,364
VB is usually a good baseline for statewide dem primaries.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If 85% of precincts is anything like 85% of expected total turnout (ie, if precincts are roughly of uniform size), then Miller would need two-thirds of the remaining votes to eke out the narrowest of wins.

I suppose that is possible, if there are pockets of deep Miller support waiting to come in. (Something like this happened in the WV-02, where Mike Callaghan trailed all night but came back super-strong with the final counties.)

But right now, things are looking very good for Webb. I have no reason to expect otherwise, but I hope Miller endorses Webb immediately. We don't need any Lieberman-esque schtick here.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 13, 2006 08:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The only major jurisdictions out are Chesapeake city & Roanoke City & County, based on trends those should go to Webb. Calling it for Webb.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Webb's gonna need all the help he can get. He's won this one despite being heavily out-fundraised and out-spent. Miller had way more mailings and way more radio & TV presence than Webb. Webb basically won this one due to the earned media that he got due to endorsements (Kerry held a rally for him last night) and his fanatical fanbase on the ground/in the VA netroots. He's gonna need some major $$ if he wants to have a good showing against Allen.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 13, 2006 08:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Although this race seems like a long-shot, you'd better believe that there are alot of people who would like to see Webb to do some damage to Geo. Allen. I hope the party is cohesive on this race and funding comes through.
Webb's selection should produce a very favorable impact on CD-2,5 & 11 races.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 08:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Given the number of Senators that have supported Webb--Schumer, Reid, Kerry, Stabenow, Salazar, Johnson, Dodd, Durbin, Levin, etc.--one would sure think that there'd be some kind of national effort to give him a little green.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 13, 2006 08:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Miller
68,567
46.25%
Webb
79,697
53.75%

2330 of
2403

VA CD-11 Dem

A L Hurst 9,866 55.27%
K Longmyer 7,983 44.73%

146 out of 160

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 09:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's a link for Maine results (State sit has nada)
Conservative Woodcock in the lead (40%) with 23% of the vote in.
http://www.wmtw.com/politics/9361523/detail.html

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 09:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I gotta believe the DSCC gave the green light to all those incumbents endorsing Webb because they ran some numbers that showed Webb doing well against Allen (and better than Miller). Consequently, I have to believe that the DSCC believes that this race is actually a top-of-second-tier or bottom-of-first-tier race now.

If their instincts are right, then this race could be very interesting. If nothing else, as Predictor notes above, Webb could definitely take some of the shine of Allen, damaging him for a potential 2008 run,

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 13, 2006 09:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Progressive Hurst is also an attractive candidate who had alot of net support. A good choice against Davis who may be vulnerable due to Abramoff ties and the fact that although Bush won this CD, in 2005 Kaine won by 13%, Byrne 9.5% and even Deeds by 5.9%.
CD-11
159 of 160

A L Hurst 10,741 55.11%
K Longmyer 8,749 44.89%

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 10:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Byrne winning that CD in 2005 must have been bittersweet as it used to be her CD.

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 10:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With 79% of the vote in the McCain supported moderate former Gop Congressman Emery goes down the tubes with only 25% of the vote to Mills 35% and the rightwing nutjob (Woodcock) gets it with 40%. Woodcock vs. Baldacci not a hardon to predict, woops, not a hard one.
Baldacci favored.
Good night & good Luck

Posted by: Predictor at June 13, 2006 11:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor, nice Freudian slip. Looks like Woodcock stands erect above the rest of the GOP field, now hoping to penetrate the walls of Baldacci's domain. Moving on from the sixth-grade humor.....I concur that Maine's Secretary of State website sucks. Massaschusetts' is horrible too. I looked everywhere to find county returns (rather than mere precinct-by-precinct returns) from the New England states but never did find them for Maine, Massachusetts, or Rhode Island. MA's site is the worst of all.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not surprised-- the web sites apparently have a lot in common with the roads up there! It's so easy to get lost and not find what you're looking for when you drive in New England. Of course, that's part of its charm. But that's neither here nor there . . .

At any rate . . . when the papers say that the Maine senate primary is "too close to call," does that mean there's going to be a runoff, or just more vote-counting? Not that either of the candidates has a chance against The Big O in the fall (I have to say, I really, really wish she would "pull a Jeffords" and go indy! Maybe if the senate is 50-50, one of the moderates can be persuaded to break rank . . . )

Posted by: The Caped Composer at June 14, 2006 09:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ME Senate Dem

Bright - 21,998
Menhert - 21,444
96% Precincts Reporting

I'd say that's a tight one. Pretty funny as everyone was fairly focued on the Gop Gov Primary being the all-nighter given the SUSA polls.
I thought the State site might have something by this morning, but nada, no links to any county sites either:
http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/prior1st.htm

Bright had about the same lead with 15% out. Given the lowturnout and the size of Maine precincts, this may be enough of an advantage for Bright.

Ok, I found a site that gives County/Town results:
http://www.mainetoday.com/elections/?
And it has an internal link for the list of Precincts not reported:
http://www.mainetoday.com/elections/?t=precinctsnotreported

Posted by: Predictor at June 14, 2006 12:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

To complete the thoughts on Maine. They are considering entire towns/townships as "Precincts".
There are about 2 dozen of these in rural counties with very small amounts of registered voters. The largest municipalities out are;
Waldoboro in Lincoln Co., Oxford in Oxford Co., Bowdoin in Sagadhoc Co., Old Orchard Beach & So. Berwick in York County.
Bright is in the lead in York, Oxford & Sagadhoc & Lincoln Counties and the adjacent towns. They split leads in the Counties with the remaining smallest precincts.
My guess based on this is that the results would favor Bright, at worst the remaining precincts are a wash.
Bright hails from Hancock County (no precincts remaining), Menhert from Penobscot Co ( 3 very small precints remaining).

Posted by: Predictor at June 14, 2006 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With 99% of the Precincts in:
Hay Bright, Jean M. 22360 50.68%
Mehnert, Eric M. 21760 49.32%

The 5 major "Precincts" are in now, Bright picked up a +24 edge. Remaining small precincts shouldn't damage her 600 vote edge. Not sure if this race could qualify for a recount, but it may.

Repub Gov:
Woodcock, Chandler E. 26813 38.59%
Mills, S. Peter 24488 35.25%
Emery, David F. 18177 26.16%

Woodcock ends up winning with a 3.34% margin.
Emery carried only York, Lincoln & Knox Counties, which used to be parts of his former CD, however the largest part of his former CD was carried by Mills - Cumberland Co. (Portland) by a wide margin & Mills and Woodcock split the remaining counties. Woodcock's best showing was in his native Franklin Co., Piscataquis and heavily Dem Androscoggin Counties. Woodcock's homebase County has a population of 29,467.

Posted by: Predictor at June 14, 2006 05:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment