Swing State Project

« MT-Sen: Getting Out the Vote in Big Sky Country | Main | Other Races to Watch on June 6 »

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

This weekend, the title question is probably unnecessary - CA-50 and MT-Sen are on everyone's minds. But if you've got anything else going on - perhaps a little Iowa? - let us know.

Also, a few site news notes. First, as you may have noticed, authors' names are now automatically linked to their e-mail addresses. So if you want to contact me, James or RBH, just click our names right below the headline of any post.

Second, we've made it easier to navigate to older stories. When you reach the bottom of the page, you will now see a link to "Next Page »". Clicking that will bring you to the previous set of posts. You can keep navigating back that way at for least 10 pages worth of material.

Finally, you'll notice that the last link at the bottom of every post says "Technorati". This link will take you to a page on the blog search engine Technorati where you can see if other blogs have linked to (and are discussing) the post in question. For example, a number of blogs linked to yesterday's post about CA-50 GOTV efforts, which is definitely something I like to see. Anyhow, it's a fun feature you can play around with.

P.S. It's also looking like another new contributing editor may join us here soon. Stay tuned!

Posted at 05:10 PM in Open Threads, Site News | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2384

Comments

There are only 2 races right now, MT-Senate and CA-50.

MT-Sen: This is the soul of the party, progressive farmer vs. DLC lawyer. This matters a lot.

CA-50: My philosophy, unless the result is within 1,000 votes a Busby win will be a sign that doors are open in November, congress is ours. Bilbray win means we'll get about 10, no more. If within 1,000 somewhere in between, but odds are we will not take congress, we'll lose the mojo. THe main thing I see is whoever wins, their party will start getting additional funding while the other party's donors will give up and not want to give to "losers."

CA-50 is a must win for Nomber.

Posted by: trowaman at June 3, 2006 05:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm getting very excited about the 1st District race in Idaho. The Democrat running, Larry Grant, is very enthusiastic about embracing the netroots, which is fun for me because that's exactly what I am. In fact, on Memorial Day, several Idaho bloggers including myself (and not all liberals) sat down with Grant to talk strategy and netroots campaigning. For little ol' me and my little ol' blog, that was pretty impressive. His campaign has opened up a good site as a foray into getting national netroots attention. For my part, you can also see what I wrote about the road ahead for what will definitely be a difficult and interesting campaign.

Posted by: yellownumber5 at June 3, 2006 06:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

To be honest, after reading this article, I'm a bit more tense about Tuesday night.

Posted by: James L. at June 3, 2006 06:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm looking at the 3 competitive races that'll be decided on tuesday.

MT-SEN: Unlike most people on the net, I really don't have a horse in this race. Unlike some people, cough Kos cough, I don't think Morrison is the devil incarnate. I'll be 110% behind whomever wins the primary and I hope that person soundly defeats Burns.

CA-50: This race will definitely be a nail-biter no matter what, I predict it'll be within 4 points. This race really shows the effects of gerrymandering. Everything about this race says that Busby should be winning going away, but since its been gerrymandered to hell Bilbray has a good chance to win a race he has no business winning.

CA-Gov: I'm just glad this race is about to end. This got really ugly, really fast. Although I have to admit, I've kind of bought the Westly talking point that Angelides can't win.

Posted by: safi at June 3, 2006 06:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CT-Sen

Did you see how quickly Tagaris had both pics and video from Lamont's meeting in Meriden (the dude has some game!):

http://nedlamont.com/blog/263/more-from-the-meeting

Posted by: Bob Brigham at June 3, 2006 08:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Was wondering if this was a good list of seats that could switch from one party to another. I'm hopeing I can get your opinion on it.

Note: Not ranked in tier some are considered just barely competitive.

R to D Governorships. Democrats need to win 4 for majority: AL-Gov, AK-Gov, AR-Gov, CA-Gov,
CO-Gov, FL-Gov, GA-Gov, MD-Gov, MA-Gov, MN-Gov, NV-Gov, NY-Gov, OH-Gov, RI-Gov, SC-Gov, TX-Gov

R to D Senate Races Democrats need to win 6 for majority. AZ-Sen, MO-Sen, MT-Sen, NV-Sen, OH-Sen, PA-Sen, RI-Sen, TN-Sen, VA-Sen

R to D House races. Democrats need to win 15 for majority. AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-50, CO-04, CO-07
CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, FL-08, FL-09, FL-13, FL-22 ID-01, IL-06, IL-10, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, IA-01, KY-02, KY-03, KY-04, LA-07, MN-01, MN-02, MN-06, NE-01 NV-02, NV-03, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, NC-11, OH-01, OH-15, OH-18, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-22, VA-02, WA-08, WV-02, WI-08, WY-AL.

D to R: AZ-Gov, IL-Gov, IA-Gov, KS-Gov, ME-Gov
MI-Gov, OK-Gov, OR-Gov, PA-Gov, WI-Gov, WY-Gov.

D to R Senate Races:
MD-Sen, MN-Sen, NE-Sen, NJ-Sen, WA-Sen

D to R House Races:

CO-03, GA-08, GA-12, IL-08, IL-17, IA-03, KS-03
LA-03, NY-27, OH-06, OR-05, SC-05, TX-17, UT-02
VT-AL, WA-02, WV-01

By the way very interested in CA-50 I'm Hopeing Francine pulls it off.

Posted by: D in FL. at June 3, 2006 09:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA 42 is on my mind hope Mark Hull Richter is successful as a write in.

Posted by: BENAWU at June 3, 2006 10:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I suppose Virginia's Senate race. Those free-trade lovers at the Washington Post (every editorial page loves free trade) endorsed the anti-Christ of outsourcing in the Democratic primary. Endorsement here.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at June 3, 2006 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, good list. My only third-tier additions would be CA-26, MI-09, MI-11, NE-03, OH-02, and PA-04 on the Dem side, along with HI-02, LA-02, OH-13, PA-13, and RI-01. It's unlikely any of these will switch hands, but it's not out of the question. I'd also be lying if I said I wasn't just a wee bit nervous about MN-05. As Democratic as it is, I have some concerns about frontrunner Keith Ellison and some potential landmines from his past.

Posted by: Mark at June 3, 2006 11:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ha! No way that RI-01 would ever elect a Republican, especially to one of the most Democratic state in the union in the most anti-GOPer year in decades.

One good 2nd/3rd tier candidate that you guys have missed are TX-21 with John Courage, CO-05 with Jay Fawcett and CO-06 with Bill Winters.

Posted by: KainIIIC at June 3, 2006 11:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Virginia Sen: I'm not surprised that the capricious Washington Post would endorse Harris Miller in the Dem Primary as I fully expect they will endorse George Allen in the general. They so much as admit that Webb has the better chance of knocking off George "Might be '08 Prez Candidate" Allen. Webb will win the Primary and then go on to giving Allen the scare of his career, paving the way for Mark Warner's rise.

Cal Gov: Well Safi, I hope you are a voter here. All the polls have been consistent on one thing. Westly does better against Schwarznegger. I firmly believe that Angelides cannot get the Moderates/Indies it will take to topple Arnie. When I think of Angelides I think of John Kerry 04.

CA CD-50: Not a good flub to have at the last minute. Hopefully the Minutemen endorsed candidate will do more damage to Bilbray than Busby.
I would hope her campaign can recover from this. It would be a sin for Brian "Lobbyist/Northern Marianas/Abramoff ties" Bilbray to win this seat.

Posted by: Predictor at June 4, 2006 12:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No predictor, I live far far away from California

Posted by: safi at June 4, 2006 12:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There's no way that the Democrats lose MN-05, it is a solid urban district that gave Kerry a huge margin of victory and ensured he carried Minnesota. And while Ellison may have a few stories swirling around him none of them are serious, and he is a genuine progressive candidate not a political insider.

Posted by: Trinhmaster at June 4, 2006 12:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Too bad, its a kewl state (for the most part) :-)

Posted by: Predictor at June 4, 2006 01:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, I got two others to add to your list. TX-21 and TX-14. Both are financially competitive and have active candidates. TX-14 is 45% democratic, and Ron Paul has a libertarian challenger. Also Nick Lampson (TX-22) and Shane Sklar (TX-14) are pretty much campaigning together since they share 3 counties.

Haven't heard much out of 21 lately since I'm not in the Austin area but I understand things are going well there as well.

If TX-22 flips, 14 WILL flip as well.

Posted by: Joseph Vogas at June 4, 2006 01:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

BTW, this is Trowaman, for some reason it is not using my codename for some reason, I'm on my mom's iBook instead of my iMac. Oh well.

Posted by: Joseph Vogas at June 4, 2006 02:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I mentioned this on Daily Kos a few days ago, but the primary race that concerns me the most at the moment is the one on 6/6 in Iowa's state senate district 31. The incumbent, Matt McCoy, is in his first election as an openly gay man. His opponent is very rich and is running on "family values". McCoy also has a tough opponent in the general election, but the primary comes first, obviously. This is a crucial election for Iowa's legislature becuase the Democrats are tied with the Republicans in the senate 25-25. If the Democrats lose seats, that means they go back to being in the minority, and if Nussle is elected governor, that means the GOP will have TOTAL control of these bodies. With the 2008 elections coming up, this is a crucial election, and McCoy also seems to be a powerful senator who has done a lot to help the people he's representing. I'll put the link to the Victory Fund page that talks about where to send donations.

http://www.victoryfund.org/mmccoy

Posted by: James B at June 4, 2006 05:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In TX-21, John Courage has brought on board Paul Hackett's finance director and we are quite excited and already hitting the ground running. We also have a staffer from DFA on loan who actually went to school in the district. We're having our first district bloggers conference call tonight as well.

Posted by: Karl-T at June 4, 2006 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You'll find donation boxes for Matt McCoy
plus 5 pro-choice candidates for the South Dakota state legislature at:

http://www.actblue.com/page/06act+local%2C+think+global

The South Dakota races were hard to research; I wish I'd been able to turn them up faster.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at June 4, 2006 04:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was pretty disappointed to read about the Busby gaffe. Immigration is a huge deal right now in the Midwest, and I can only imagine what its like in SoCal. I'm worried this diverts the "perfect political storm" in CA-50 and hurts fundraising in 2nd and 3rd-Tier races across the country.

I'm also interested in the Minnesota Senate race. Mark Kennedy had an extremely low turnout at the GOP state convention over the weekend. I hope its a sign of things to come in terms of depressed GOP turnout in Minnesota in 2006.
Although none of the GOP's statewide primaries were competitive, it still is surprising that "There were 2,011 potential delegates at the convention and 923 showed up, at one point raising a question whether the party had enough delegates for a quorum.

Posted by: Max at June 4, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like the Democrats in NJ CD-4 (Rep. Chris Smith-R) have come up with a replacement candidate: Carol Gay - Brick Twp. What a great name for a Dem Candidate! The prior candidate had to resign due to a conflict of interest with his public sector job. Carol has a nice website and experience as a labor leader and is seriously involved in the effort/focus to get us out of Iraq:
http://www.carolgayforcongress.com/
The fourth went to Gore by 4 points in 2000 and then to Bush in 2004 by 12 points (this district was one of the biggest jumps to Bush in 2004). Smith is considered a "moderate" but pretty much tows the Admin line.
I don't think the candidate's name will help given the hate-mongering Gop agenda(except in the LGBT community), but you go girl! Glad we have a candidate.

Posted by: Predictor at June 4, 2006 06:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've read that Carol Gay's candidacy faces some resistance among the Democratic establishment in NJ. Don't know how true that is, or how extensive the resistance would be, but she seems to be a genuinely progressive candidate who should receive a lot of (moral, at least) support on principle.

Posted by: MissLaura at June 4, 2006 09:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In addition to the June 6th races, I've got NE-03 on my mind. I'm really starting to believe this might just be one of those cleeper races that catches everyone off guard: even if Scott Kleeb doesn't win, if he can even make it close then he will be perfectly positioned for a statewide race in the future.

Anyway, on Friday Kleeb went on a three-city campaign of the large, rural district with the former Governor/Senator/9-11 Commissioner Bob Kerrey. Kerrey no longer lives here, but he remains exceptionally popular and their appearance together earned them pretty sizable crowds (200 in Scottsbluff, 80 in North Platte, 100 in Kearney - pretty impressive considering how small the towns are), as well as extremely positive front page stories in every local paper and prominent spots on the evening news. Kleeb's fundraising remains competitive, and he's gone on the attack against his opponent for accepting large donations from the Club for Growth -whose anti-subsidy platform isn't likely to win over this largely agricultural vote.

Posted by: everrpa at June 5, 2006 01:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Christopher Walker, thanks for doing all that. I hope people get a chance to donate, or at least spread the word to those who live in those districts.

Posted by: James B at June 5, 2006 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

this for Mark. How come Collin Peterson has always done so well in what you a Republican leaning district. It's presidential numbers have been scewed Republican, but I've heard it described as an evenly balanced swing district. Also, if Hennepin County is the most populous county in MN what is Ramsey county in those same terms.

Posted by: ArkDem at June 5, 2006 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For me it's all about the local races. Grassroots up. Bryan Lentz, our candidate for state rep out here in PA recently got the support of Max Cleland, and his campaign is starting to take off. He's a really great candidate, a veteran of Bosnia and Iraq and a former prosecutor, and he needs everyone's help. Check out his website, or search for him on technorati.com.

Posted by: Dleigh at June 6, 2006 11:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Please follow Angie Paccione who will the opponent of Marilyn Musgrave for a House seat in Colorado. For the second election year in a row, Musgrave has introduced a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage just in time for campaign season.

Angie is a Ph.D, and the Chair of the Democratic Majority Caucus in the Colorado House of Representatives.

She was born in 1960 in the South Bronx. Her father is Italian and mother African-American. A true scholar-athlete, Angie graduated from Stanford with an honors degree in political science, and then joined the Women’s American Basketball Association.

Angie moved to Colorado in 1985 after retiring from professional sports. Angie taught at Smoky Hill High School in the Cherry Creek School District. After teaching for four years, Angie became a Dean of Students at Smoky Hill, and was able to combine her two passions—teaching and basketball—by becoming the coach of the BOY’s varsity basketball team.

Angie was elected and re-elected to the Colorado legislature as a Democrat in a district in which her party was a minority.

see www.angie2006.com

In 2004, Musgrave only received 51% of the vote against Stan Matsunaka who had 45%.

Angie is a strong candidate who can win against a right-wing hack.

Posted by: edonyoung at June 19, 2006 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment