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Sunday, June 25, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCApart from CT-Sen, which remaining primaries would you consider top-tier, or at least, worth watching? I'm thinking MA-Gov is right up front, and HI-Sen is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Posted at 10:00 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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MI 7th and 9th Republican Primaries. 7th is a club for growth right winger against a moderate ish Republican Incumbent . 9th is a very moderate Republican challenging a Republican a decent bit more Conservative than the district as a whole. Also C0 7th a must win seat, hoping we don't blow it in the primary.
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at June 25, 2006 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
we just dodged a primary in MD-GOV
Posted by: yomoma2424 at June 25, 2006 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PA-10 is still number one on my list.
It's time to kick Don "mistress choker" sherwood out now.
Posted by: dantheman at June 26, 2006 02:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VA Sen - Again I am very interested in the Virginia Senate race. I really want Allen to be defeated as he is way out of touch with the average Virginia voter. He votes with Bush 97% of the time (contrast to Warner who is somewhere around 55-60), he only wants to be senator to become president, his racial past makes you stop and think, and him being elected president would be the equivalent of George Bush being in office for another four years. I ask you all to help Webb as much as you can. Allen will have to ton of money so donate to the Webb campaign. www.webbforsenate.com
Posted by: UVA08 at June 26, 2006 02:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My one concern about the CT-Senate primary is that the race may divert tactically-critical resources away from CT-02, CT-04, and CT-05. I like Lamont and I've even sent him money, but CT-02 and CT-04, at least, have been on my Christmas list for much longer. If I have to choose, I'd rather flip three House seats than push the Senate seat left.
I have the same concern about Senator Dodd's sudden soft-pated desire to test the waters for the Presidential nomination. I read this morning that he collected $1 million at a fund-raiser over the weekend. I hope to God that was *pledges* and not checks. The thought of what $1 million could do, split three ways over three House campaigns that are already close...
I wish Lamont well, and the ideal scenario is that he generates GOTV enthusiasm that benefits our Congressional contenders as well. But I wish I knew more about the Connecticut donor base. I'm worried that we have too many pies in the oven in one small state.
Posted by: Christopher Walker at June 26, 2006 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MN-01 - Tim Walz has assembled a smart campaign team, is raising more money than any DFL candidate in recent memory in southern Minnesota, and he's hitting Gil Gutknecht hard on the right issues - stem cell research, shady deals in Congress, and they're doing it in a clear way. What's it going to take to get this race into the top tier of Dem takeover opportunities in Congress?
Posted by: JelloAbode at June 26, 2006 05:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
All things Virginia, particularly VA-Sen and VA-10. Judy Feder (D) is challenging 20+ year incumbent Frank Wolf who is a wolf in sheeps clothing. The district is slowly moving left, she has outraised him the last 2 quarters and is set to do it again, and its a bad year to be a republican. With a hard-working governor in office, Jim Webb at the top of the ticket and a strong challenger, all these add up to a competitve race.
Posted by: AlecBGreen at June 26, 2006 06:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My mother has legitimate residences in Connecticut and Massachusetts and is having a huge amount of trouble deciding where to vote, since both have primaries she cares about. Thoughts on that?
Posted by: MissLaura at June 26, 2006 08:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Rhode Island republican primary is very important for democrats. If Laffey wins the republican nomination over Chafee, Whitehouse (D) will surely beat him in the general election, bringing democrats one seat closer to a majority. If Chafee wins the nomination, he will likely win the general election.
Democrats and progressive independents should hope that Laffey gets the nomination. According to the polls, this is very possible.
Posted by: skipos at June 26, 2006 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't think we should write off Whitehouse if Chafee wins the nod. After all, polls are showing him neck and neck with Chafee in the general. He'll likely get a post-primary bounce, yeah, if he beats Laffey (which I bet he will). I'm still trying to wrap my head around the possibility of him running as an independent, though.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at June 26, 2006 09:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ca-11 - Jerry McNerney has been named DFA's Grassroots All-Star & the Next Netroots Candidate! Jerry is a progressive Democrat and a renewable energy expert who is taking on Delay/Abramoff crony, Richard Pombo.
You can Read about it:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/26/192852/793
http://www.blogforamerica.com/
--------------------
Support Jerry McNerney!
Vote for Jerry McNerney in Mark Warner's Map Changers Competition!
http://www.forwardtogetherpac.com/mapchangers
Posted by: malik5470 at June 26, 2006 09:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Agreed that RI-Sen is big.
For sheer pandemonium, I'm looking forward to HI-2, both (D) and (R). The Republicans have a race between a former Champ Kind-wannabe and play-by-play guy for UH football -- Bob Hogue -- and a former coke addict and the pretender to the Hawai'ian throne -- Quentin Kawananakoa. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a ridiculously crowded field, with a number of heavy hitters in contention. Right now, I'd handicap it thusly, but I haven't seen any polling, and anyone who thinks they know which way this is going is full of it:
1) Colleen Hanabusa, State Senate Majority Leader. A labor lawyer by trade, Hanabusa has the support of a number of the state's powerful unions. Sitting on over $110K in a federal account by the end of 1Q, placing her well ahead of most of her competition. She also lives in the district, unlike most of the other candidates. Japanese.
2) Mazie Hirono, former LG. Last seen winning the Democatic nomination for Governor in 2002 primarily because her scandal-ridden opponent had to withdraw, and subsequently losing badly to Linda Lingle. Doesn't live in the district, and lacking institutional support. Did, however, recently get the backing of Emily's List, and she led the hopefuls with $300K on hand at the end of 1Q -- critical in a race where money won't be flowing like water. Also Japanese.
(Will the two Japanese women, probably the two strongest contenders in a vacuum, cancel each other out?)
3) Matt Matsunaga, son of Former US Senator Spark Matsunaga. He's got a great name, but has yet to grab the brass ring of statewide or federal office, despite a couple tries. No money at the end of 1Q. Doesn't live in the district. Japanese.
4) Clayton Hee, former Office of Hawaiian Affairs trustee. Doesn't have any money yet, but he is the only Hawai'ian entrant, and he is well-known in the district.
5) Brian Schatz, State House member (for a district not in HI-2). Young, ambitious, haole (white), not from the district.
There are a couple others in the race, but I think I've started to paint the picture. Maybe I'll elaborate later. Anyone else have thoughts on this one?
Posted by: Trapper John at June 26, 2006 09:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm primarily interested in TX-21, where a new poll showed Lamar Smith with a "Does Lamar Smith deserve reelection?" at 35%. Those are horrible numbers, and with a Democratic year with high turnout among students, Western Austin, San Antonio suburbs and New Braunsfels, this district could easily slip into the Democrats' hands. I personally think that John Courage should be a netroots candidate. I've seen him in person, and I must say that he is simply an amazing candidate and guy.
Personally, I think another good netroots candidate would be Tim Walz. Another underrated race by the pundits, but with enough money, I think Walz could pull it off.
Posted by: KainIIIC at June 26, 2006 10:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The race that is most interesting with little national attention is OH-01. As we all know Ohio was a key battleground state that went down in the last election. John Cranley is mounting a strong challenge to incumbant Steve Chabot who is a typical right winger with close ties to Ambramoff and oil handouts. This is a great chance for the Dems to pick up a seat and Cranley has made the red to blue list.
Why aren't more people talking about this race?
_____________________________________________________
http://ohiosfirst.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Oh01 at June 27, 2006 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Two Race Rating Changes from CQ Politics, both moved in a positive direction.
Virginia-02 Kellam-D from Republican Favored to Leans Republican:http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/06/va_2_kellam_complicating_drake.html
and Michigan-08 Marcinkowski-D from Safe Republican to Republican Favored:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/06/mi_8_marcinkowski_aims_to_take.html
Posted by: Predictor at June 30, 2006 12:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Lets try that link again:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/06/va_2_kellam_complicating_drake.html
Also, Larry Sabato has put this race on his "Dirty Thirty List" (30 most competitive seats) as Leans Republican:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/?state=VA
Sabato has updated his predictions and had the following to say:
"Then again, even on a race-by-race basis, Democratic prospects seem brighter by the day in large part because of the president's unpopularity, which appears to have settled somewhat, and the salience of issues with which the president and his party continue to struggle in the polls. A look at our updated Dirty Thirty list of competitive House races immediately reveals an unlucky number for Republicans: 13 races can now be considered "toss-ups," and 12 of those districts are currently held by Republicans. In February, we rated only 11 races as "toss-ups," and only 8 of those races were in Republican-held seats. Additionally, as we have rotated some districts in to the Dirty Thirty and others out, we now estimate that Democrats will only need to win 22 of the 30 most competitive races to win control of the House, down from 24 in February and 26 in October--still a tall mountain to cl!imb, but more surmountable than ever."
Posted by: Predictor at June 30, 2006 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Charlie Cook has moved AZ Senate race from "likely republican" to "leans republican" as of 6/29
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_jun29.pdf
On the House side: No longer any Dem Toss-up seats, the 21 seats in play are 11 Likely & 10 Leans, OH-06 Strickland was moved from Toss-up to Leans.
Still 53 seats in play on the Gop side: 14 Toss-up from 10 (added: FL-22,IL-06,NC-11,CT-04) 21 Leans down from 25 and 18 Likely remains the same.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_jun29.pdf
Posted by: Predictor at June 30, 2006 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment