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Saturday, July 01, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

The quarter's over and it's July Fourth weekend. We'll be taking a break here at SSP until after the holiday, so please use this thread in the meantime for any and all campaign-related discussions. Have a great Independence Day!

P.S. If you come across any early fundraising reports from any campaign, Dem or GOP, please post it in the comments. Thanks!

Posted at 01:41 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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MN-ALL Congress

01: Tim Walz made a big end-of-Q2 fundraising push, which his team asked me to help out with - my blog drove three $40 donations to the campaign :) Go MNCR

02: Waiting to see something exciting from the Rowley camp, but Kline (R-Inc)'s rhetoric has ramped up in recent weeks

03: Wendy Wilde is getting off the ground with a new campaign manager, a couple new field offices in the district with the coordinated campaign, and raising a bit o' dough.

05: GOP still trying to pound away at Keith Ellison to foment discord in the DFL and keep urban vote down in November. Allies and unity-minded DFLers coming to Ellison's aid against both ill-tempered GOP attacks and primary opponents.

06: Patty Wetterling made another big end-of-quarter money rush, and her opponent, Michele Bachmann is still a self-proclaimed "Coulter Republican". Seriously. Check out the Democratic Underground Minnesota forum for some discussion on it. It's true.

Posted by: JelloAbode at July 1, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

a "self-proclaimed 'Coulter Republican.'" I like the sound of that! Any chance she's doing a joint fund-raiser with Ann Coulter's favorite Democrat, Joe Lieberman?

And at this point, the primary races where progressive, grassroots, true-blue Democrats, like Ned Lamont in Connecticut and Donna Edwards in MD-04 and Jan Schneider in FL-13, are taking on corporate hacks-- Lieberman, Al Wynn and Christine Jennings-- are the races that interest me the most. I'm very optimistic after the one two punch Jon Tester and Jerry McNerney dealt the Inside-the-Beltway Democratic power elite and I'm hoping that this will be extended into Connecticut, Maryland and Florida.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at July 1, 2006 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

whether or not jennings is a corporate hack as you say, what makes you think schneider can win? she has already lost this race in an open seat versus Katherine Harris who was quite possibly the least popular republican in florida. and then she lost the race again in a rematch. A generic republican will pull closer to Bush in the district, as im sure that harris ran behind the president. Not to mention Schneider didnt make the race that close even with Harris there. I think it was 55 45 or so, and the first 41-42 are the easy ones, consolidating the base, every point on top of that gets harder and harder. However, no matter who wins the primary, i dont see this seat flipping.

Posted by: yomoma2424 at July 2, 2006 11:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm looking at the four compeitive senate primaries 2 on our side 2 on there's.

CT-SEN: Unlike everyone else on the net, I don't have a horse in this race. The two things that are upsetting me though are the DSCC's endorsement of Lieberman and Lieberman's unwillingness to rule out an Indy bid.

MD-SEN: Mfume might be able to win. The key word is might. There's a lot of people who wouldn't vote for him because of his background and the innuendos about his stint at the NAACP. These are people who will happily vote for Cardin. If its Mfume I think your looking at a 52-48 toss-up., whereas Cardin can win by 8-12 points.

TN-SEN: I liked Harold Ford calling these guys the three stooges. I think Hilleary is the guy I don't want to win. Ed Bryant is a complete wingnut, as is Hlleary but Hilleary does a better job of hiding it. With Corker, the wingnuts may not turn out for him, giving Ford a good chance of winning.

RI-SEN: This primary is pretty straight-forward. If Chaffee wins, this will be a complete toss-up but if Laffey wins Whitehouse will be RI's next US Senator.

Posted by: safi at July 2, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, I can't say I'm too sanguine about Schneider, given that Harris did indeed run behind Bush in her district (Bush took 56-42, Harris 55-45). Also, Schneider spent 2x in 2004 what she did in 2002, and did not move the needle at all (she took 45% both times).

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 2, 2006 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

actually hilleary is the guy we want to win. he represented in a congress a hardcore republican area that would vote for him either way. but bryant represented a blue collar reagan democratic area that ford needs to win, so bryant being nominated would obviously hurt ford. i think corker will end up a lamar alexander situation , where everyone goes well look hes more moderate. thats what people said in the alexander bryant primary in 2002 and yet, alexander seems like hes been just a regular republican down the line. so i dont get where that was coming from with him, or will be going with corker

Posted by: yomoma2424 at July 2, 2006 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-Senate. If Jim Webb can win in Virginia, then the Democrats will very likely take back the majority in the Senate. It is also vitally important that Virgiinia be represented by a proven, thoughtful and constructive leader not the rubber stamp Senator Allen has proven to be. I also feel that Jim Webb is a shining example of Reagan Democrats coming home to the party, having had enough.

It will be close, but if Democrats unite behind Webb, moderate Republicans will be impressed and persuaded, as many already are.

Posted by: Scott of Hybla at July 2, 2006 09:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

yomama, you have Bryant and Hilleary backwards. Hilleary represented a rural swath of central Tennessee (TN-04) currently represented by Democrat Lincoln Davis. It's a 50-50 district in state elections and is full of the kind of Yellow Dog Democrats that Ford needs if he's gonna win statewide, but which would go GOP if native son Hilleary is on the ballot. The absolute worst case scenario for Ford is a Hilleary nomination.

Bryant, on the other hand, represented "exurbia" when he was the Congressman for TN-07, where the population base includes the hard-right suburbs of Memphis (Germantown) and Nashville (Brentwood), places that would never vote for Harold Ford or any other Democrat. Bryant's replacement in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn, went unopposed in only her second run at that seat, if that gives you any idea how devastatingly Republican the region is. Ford has the fewest votes to immediately concede if Bryant is his opponent.

A Corker nomination could cut either way. If my information is right, Corker is pro-choice, which gives the increasingly abundant wingnut contingent precious little reason to head to the polls, especially considering Democrat Bredesen is looking at a landslide victory in the gubernatorial race. On the other hand, it could play out as you say where the moderate and otherwise Dem-friendly voters of West and Central Tennessee opt for the "moderate Republican" over the Democrat. It's a tough call on Corker, but he would he definitely have an advantage against Ford.

From my perspective, a Hilleary nomination and it's game over for Ford. If it's Corker, Ford has a slim chance if the wingnuts stay home. And if it's Bryant, Ford will still be the underdog, but will have the best shot of hitting 50.1%.

Posted by: Mark at July 2, 2006 11:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ah mixed em up. whoops. so i guess bryant is our preferred nominee.

about corker, somewhere i remember him saying he is pro-life, probably to win over the right so he can actually win the primary. If corker does win the primary, I think hell win because hell have a ton of money, and while a lot of repblicans on the right might not turn out, a lot of the buisness republicans will come out and vote in big numbers for Corker, so it will cut into Ford's ability to win over the moderate republicans

Posted by: yomoma2424 at July 3, 2006 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As an outsider I would think that there would not be a lot of "Business" Republicans out there. I mean in TN it seems unlikely but this is an outsider view.

Posted by: D in FL. at July 3, 2006 12:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hilleary is known to be the biggest loser of the bunch, known to run self-imploding negative campaigns against his opponents (Bredesen) and losing because of that. Demographics and Geography aside, Van Hilleary would be the easiest opponent to beat for Ford.

Corker is a double-edged sword, as his "moderate" thing may peel votes away from Ford, or keep the wingnuts home. Ford may be successful in painting him too conservative even for Tennessee, causing more moderates to flcok to him, but at this point Corker is unknown. Sad too, he's the most likely nominee currently.

Posted by: KainIIIC at July 3, 2006 11:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kain, I've heard that said about Hilleary before (even though I don't believe he's lost any races beyond the 2002 gubernatorial race, making the statement that he's "the biggest loser of the bunch fairly hyperbolic). Unfortunately, Hilleary is not running in a gubernatorial race against a conservative white Democrat this time, he's running a Senate race against a black man from Memphis. Bredesen won largely because he held down Hilleary's margins in eastern Tennessee. Ford will be very unlikely to do any better than John Kerry did in far-right and racial diversity-averse East Tennessee, making him all the more dependent upon those central Tennessee Yellow Dogs on Hilleary's home turf.

As for Corker, I'm really surprised that the most centrist candidate in a Tennessee Republican primary has the lead. From what I understand, Corker is a wealthy self-funding candidate raising his name ID by bombarding the state with TV ads. Could it be than when either Bryant or Hilleary start running a higher concentration of their own ads, they could upend Corker? At this point, it's very clear that Bryant and Hilleary are cannibalizing each other among the wingnuts. Kind of a bummer as it looked early on like Ford would most be most likely to faceoff against Bryant, who in my opinion is hands-down his most beatable opponent. If Corker is not in fact pro-choice on abortion as I suggested earlier, then it's unlikely that the wingnuts will be staying home in protest.

Posted by: Mark at July 3, 2006 11:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Today, at his conference, Joe Baby confirmed he is collecting signatures to run as an independent if he loses the primary.

The quote is:
'I have higher loyalties than my Party'

Now the time to flood the leadership with the demand that registerd Democrats require our leaders to disavow any former Democrat who chooses to run as a NON-Democrat.

They should say he, in this case Joe-Baby, will be treated just the same as strong Republican Challenger and hit with the full weight of the Democratic Party. We do not support those who run from the Party that brought them to power and gave them a chance at the Vice Presidency. Fuck 'em.

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at July 3, 2006 02:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Corker was pro-choice when he ran for Senate in 1994. Now, he's saying he's had a change of heart and he's now pro-life.

As for the lack of "Business Republicans," I think you'll find that there's quite a large swath of such folks in Tennessee -- Nashville and Memphis are major business hubs (FedEx, Toyota USA) Chattanooga and Knoxville aren't in that league but have a big business presence (Chattanooga is a major player in health and disability insurance) ...we also have indoor plumbing...and very few of us marry our siblings...

Posted by: Savage Tan at July 3, 2006 02:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like the Sen race in RI just got all the more interesting. Laffey's gaffey may just seal his fate:
Laffey apologizes for radio comments
The Cranston mayor and U.S. Senate hopeful says the words he used to describe the state GOP leadership -- "Luckily, those people are getting older and they're dying" -- did not convey his message.

01:00 AM EDT on Saturday, July 1, 2006
BY SCOTT MacKAY
Journal Staff Writer

"PROVIDENCE -- Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, a Republican U.S. Senate aspirant, apologized yesterday for his "poor choice of words" on a talk-radio show Thursday when he referred to some members of the Rhode Island Republican leadership as an older "elite" group and said, "Luckily, those people are getting older and they're dying."

In a statement released yesterday, Laffey said: "In hindsight, I realize that it was a poor choice of words and did not accurately convey what I was trying to say."

"I simply meant that in Rhode Island, the Republican state party leadership has long been dominated by a small elite group, and it is fortunate that we are beginning to see a waning of their influence and increased participation among grassroots, rank-and-file Republican voters."

His comments came on WPRO's Dan Yorke show.

Laffey is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee for the GOP Senate nomination. The state Republican Convention on Thursday evening gave its unanimous endorsement to Chafee's candidacy.

Yesterday, Chafee called on Laffey to apologize before Laffey issued his statement.

"This is completely unacceptable language in any place but especially in a political campaign for the United States Senate," Chafee said. "Our Rhode Island citizens deserve better than this, and an immediate apology is in order. These hard-working individuals should be praised for their efforts to strengthen the two-party system, and I for one appreciate all that they are doing."

Along with Chafee, the state GOP convention endorsed Governor Carcieri for reelection, Reginald Centracchio for lieutenant governor, Jonathan Scott for U.S. representative in the 1st District, J. William Harsch for attorney general, Sue Stenhouse for secretary of state, and Andrew Lyon for state general treasurer."

Posted by: Predictor at July 3, 2006 03:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looking at the new FEC reports, races of special interest are AZ-05, NM-01, PA-06, CT-04 and CT-02, NY-24, OH-01, and VA-02. By the way KainIIIC, I'm afraid that you have it wrong, Bryant ran against Bresden, not Hilleary, he ran against Lamar Alexander in the GOP Primary and lost fairly lopsidedly to the popular former Governor. Bryant is known for being a bad campaigner and poor fundraiser, while Corekr's campaigning skills do not strike any confidence in Republicans. Chatonooga is not exactly remotely Democratic either. Bart Gordon's 60% pro-Bush district is likely going to be the battle ground, along with Davis' 57% pro-Bush district, and Ford also needs a huge Bresden level margin in Jim Cooper's 51% pro-Kerry Nashville based district, having Ed Bryant on the ballot, with Bresden running in an uncompetitive race for governor, would give Ford the biggest chance of winning. I also have gotten a sense from polling that he has also recently managed to pull ahead of Hilleary. Bush got 67% in Blackburn's district, Bryant can't do that much better, he's the weakest candidate.

Posted by: ArkDem at July 3, 2006 04:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Judging from my previous analysis of Tennessee, I would say Ford's best chance of victory is pulling off the following margins in the nine TN districts.

District 1 (Johnson City, Kingsport)--38% Ford
District 2 (Knoxville)--41% Ford
District 3 (Chattanooga, Oak Ridge)--44% Ford
District 4 (McMinnville, Lynchburg)--50% Ford
District 5 (Nashville)--60% Ford
District 6 (Murfreesboro, Gallatin)--50% Ford
District 7 (Clarksville, Germantown)--40% Ford
District 8 (Jackson, Dyersburg)--56% Ford
District 9 (Memphis)--79% Ford

Looking at this district-by-district handicap of the race, it helps one realize just what a steep uphill climb victory will be. And this is just a generic analysis. If Bryant is the candidate, Ford won't get 40% in District 7. If Hilleary is the candidate, Ford won't get 50% in District 4. And if Corker is the candidate, District 3 will go much less than 44% for Ford.

The extreme odds of this race are part of the reason why it intrigues more than, say, Missouri's Senate race even though that race is likely to be much easier for the Democrat to win. Tennessee's very distinct geographic battle lines also make this race kind of exciting, no matter how much of a DLC prostitute Ford is.

Posted by: Mark at July 3, 2006 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Please check your facts Arkdem >_

And, I think that, especially after the CA-05 election proved when the GOP nominated a "moderate" Republican, that Bob Corker is probably the worst candidate to go up against. While he is uninspiring (then again, All of the 3 Stooges are), at the end of the day, the wingnuts will still come out and vote for Corker, even if some don't, that margin will probably be dwarfed by the number that 'moderates' choose him over ford due to his 'moderate' credentials. Plus he was a mayor of a city that is about as Democratic as you get in East Tennessee, bringing any possibility of Bredesen nullifying East Tennessee's Republican leanings to a halt.

Posted by: KainIIIC at July 4, 2006 02:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC remember your claim about Joe Lieberman collecting signatures to run as an indy WHILE campaigning for the Dem primary? it has come to pass:

http://www.joementum.com/2006/07/03/flashback/

Posted by: Samson at July 4, 2006 12:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks, Samson. I do indeed remember that! In a post in April, I also wrote:

Let me tell you this: If Lieberman starts collecting petitions to run as an indy candidate, all hell will break loose. Somehow, though, I very much doubt anything like that would ever come to pass.

Of course, sentence #2 was wrong. But I don't think you can blame me - this is a pretty stunning turn of events.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 4, 2006 04:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jan Schneider? Jan Schneider's no better than Joe Lieberman. She went on TV to bash the Democratic party and threaten an Independent run.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at July 4, 2006 05:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in the blow back from Joementum's Monday announcement. So far we've heard from Hillary Clinton that she will be supporting the winner of the Democratic primary, whoever that is. However, Charles Schumer was clear on "Meet the Press", the day before Joltin' Joe's bombshell, that he would be supporting Lieberman. Whether or not Senator Chuck would make the same pronouncement today is uncertain.

Unfortunately, this isn't getting a lot of press, so it's difficult to make a reading of how this is going to effect Ned Lamont's chances. One could equally argue that both Lieberman and Lamont on the Nov ballot will help Lamont if Lieberman splits the independants and Republicans, or that it will hurt Lamont if Lieberman splits the Dems. My thinking is that because of Lieberman's more conservative credentials, it will be more the former than the latter. In that case, Lieberman on Monday may have handed Lamont an easy path to the very Senate seat to which Joltin' Joe feels he has an entitlement.

This is all worth watching the next few weeks.

Posted by: Longship at July 5, 2006 01:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Longship, I think without a doubt this benefits Lieberman. CT's party breakdown is as follows: 37-D, 30-R, 33-I. If Lieberman runs as an Indy or petitioning Democrat or whatever the hell he'll be running as the way I see it he'll get about 40% of Dems, 65% of Repubs, and 65% of Indies. This total leaves Lieberman with 55.7% and a comftorable win and another 6 years in office.

Posted by: safi at July 5, 2006 11:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

SUSA's latest breakdown for Senator was: 42-28-24 (D, I, R), the time before it was 41-30-25, and 35-40-24. Boy is SUSA's methodology pretty erratic.
Anyhow, I don't see Joe getting any of those %s as high. First off, having the Republican candidate get only 30-35% of the Republican Vote? That's almost impossible. Lamont will get 1-5% of the Republican vote and Schleiser at least 50%, if not 60-80%, why? If Lieberman is running as an Indy, the Republicans will strongly contest this election as they see an opportunity to win.
65% of indies? 41% of indies in the SUSA poll disapproved of him, and I think it's almost impossible seeing Lieberman actually GAIN Indies for his bid. The most he could hope for is 55%, but he'll probably end up getting only 50% or 45%, and if there's a strong Republican drive, possibly only 40% or 35%.

As it stands now, Lieberman gains at the R's expense, but even still, the R has about a base of 20% that will probably vote for him no matter what, and, (if not contested by Republicans), a maximum of 30%. That means if he's competing with the remaining 70% or 80%, he seeks to gain depending on how badly the Republican does. And, if trendlines continue until November and he DOES switch to an Independent, I think that his perceived advantage among Democrats will be reduced to about 30% and his perceived advantage among Independents to about 45%.

Overall, as Democrats begin to rally behind Lamont, the Republicans by default vote for their own candidate, and Independents slowly but surely go behind Lamont, I think that Lamont will pull this off.

Posted by: KainIIIC at July 5, 2006 01:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congressional Candidate for NJ-07, Assembyperson Linda Stender has come out against the Corzine Budget proposal and allied with the no new tax proposal by Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts - D-Camden.
Smart move, hope so.
http://www.politicsnj.com/budget.htm

PS - Thanks Corzine for totally screwing up Dem party prospects in NJ, you should have stayed put!

Posted by: Predictor at July 6, 2006 02:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Regarding IL-08 (Bean):
"A much-anticipated objection to Moderate Party candidate Bill Scheurer's campaign petition never materialized, ensuring that his name will appear on the ballot for the 8th Congressional District, state election officials said Wednesday.

Scheurer said he would focus his energies on campaigning against incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean and Republican challenger David McSweeney. He planned to drop a federal lawsuit filed last week accusing prominent Democrats of election fraud in denying him petition signatures.

"Today we shift from petitioning to organizing a campaign," Scheurer said Wednesday. "We're really treating [the accusations] as ancient history, and we're not looking backward, but looking forward to the campaign."

Scheurer and attorney Andrew Spiegel braced for a Democratic objection to their ballot petition – state Democratic Party Treasurer Michael Kasper requested a copy an hour after Scheurer filed it, according to Illinois State Board of Election records." (from Scheurer's website).

Scheurer is running to the left of Bean hoping to reap Labor and Anti-Iraq War voters.

Posted by: Predictor at July 6, 2006 02:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

New York is the swing state, with 5-6 Republican incumbents facing competitive challengers. Kirsten Gillibrand in NY20 outraised her incumbent Republican opponent this quarter, details here - http://wfpjournal.blogspot.com/2006/07/election-roundup-for-june.html

Posted by: Steve at July 7, 2006 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment