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Saturday, July 15, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCThe last batch of campaign finance reports are due today. You can track electronic filings here. However, not all races file electronically (I think Senate campaigns are not required to), so some disclosures may not take place until after the weekend. In any event, hats off to James for tracking all the numbers, and thanks to all the commenters who've provided them.
Posted at 01:31 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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Linda Stender -- NJ7 -- has raised more than $800K and has $650K on hand. Just in the past couple weeks she got the Netroots endorsement and put on the DCCC Red to Blue list, so there should be a few more hundred thousand from their efforts. If she can keep on this tack with her own fundraising -- which given her success to date should only improve -- she should have well over $1.5M for the campaign against Mike Ferguson.
Since neither of the last two challengers raised even $1M, that is great news.
Posted by: njwatcher ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at July 15, 2006 03:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Cook Political Report released on 7/12 an update on competitive House Contests. Still 53 competitive Gop seats: 14 Toss-up, 21 Lean and 18 Likely. 20 competitive Dem seats down from 21, TN-04 (Davis) moved from Likely Dem to non-competitive. That's a 33 seat gap!
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_jul12.pdf
Posted by: Predictor at July 15, 2006 03:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hmmm...I have no idea why the above posted in that manner, it didn't have that spacing nor look like that in the Preview window.
I hope Assemblyperson Stender can shake the negs created by the NJ budget crisis. The latest Quinnipiac Poll is showing the voters blaming the Legislature by a 3 to 1 margin, with Corzine off the hook.
Posted by: Predictor at July 15, 2006 04:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Via MyDD, there's some interesting things happening in NE-03, where the Democratic candidate has almost 3x the COH of his Republican opponent (despite Cheney doing a fundraiser for the Republican).
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/7/15/12146/2497#readmore
The Democrat's name is Scott Kleeb, and he's a rancher with a PhD in International Relations from Yale.
A victory is still a real longshot (its apparently the 6th-most Republican seat in the country), but its nice to see Democrats making a real fighting effort everywhere.
Posted by: bosdcla14 at July 15, 2006 04:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
IL-08 Rep. Bean has big lead in campaign cash:
Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, the lone incumbent in a pair of suburban Chicago congressional races drawing national attention from their parties, has a better than 4-1 advantage in campaign funds over her GOP challenger.
Bean, who stunned the GOP in 2004 by defeating 35-year Republican incumbent Phil Crane, has recorded having almost $2.17 million in cash on-hand as of June 30, the end of the latest quarterly reporting period to federal election authorities.
David McSweeney, a businessman who has provided more than $1 million from his personal wealth to his campaign so far, reported having about $471,000 left in his political fund.
[Comment edited for copyright considerations.]
Posted by: Predictor at July 15, 2006 04:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Minnesota Senate and CD races fundraising report article: http://www.startribune.com/587/story/553707.html
Posted by: Predictor at July 15, 2006 04:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Al Weed, VA-05, challenging Virgil Goode (R-MZM)
Al outraised Virgil again this quarter, by an 8 to 5 ratio. Here are the raw numbers:
Al Weed: $116,217.88
Virgil Goode: $73,035.00
We (I work for the campaign) also outspent Virgil, three to one, setting up regional offices all over the district (working on 5 -- the district is the size of NJ) and getting our ground game going early. Despite outspending the incumbent 53k to 17k, our net for the quarter was still better -- 63k to 56k.
Virgil still maintains a sizeable COH advantage (almost a half a mil), but he's gearing up for an unusually expensive campaign (hiring full-time staff for the first time) and he's had trouble raising money since his MZM affair was made public. Even with this starting advantage, if we keep outraising Virgil at this rate, we'll both hit a million dollars at about the same time.
This is a really low-dollar district, and I expect it will be competitive if Al can raise $750k. Virgil didn't have to spend much to win last time, because Bush was going after Kerry for opposing the Iraq war and being from a "gay state" (the two issues which went against Al). This time there's no Bush-Kerry race to help Virgil out, just the Allen-Webb race to help Al.
Posted by: msnook at July 15, 2006 04:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Larry Kissell NC-08
97k raised + 25k loan from Larry
Total receipts: $122,741
COH: $79,453
Robin Hayes
Total receipts: $257,442
COH: $1,207,814
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VA-10 Judy Feder-D vs. lunatic Cong Frank Wolf-R
Northern VA-DC burbs:
In the second quarter of 2006, Feder raised $318,910, compared to $282,498 for incumbent Frank Wolf. For 2006 as a whole, Feder has outraised Wolf by $195,067, with $607,887 for Feder and $412,820 for Wolf. Finally, in terms of "cash on hand," Feder is within striking distance of Wolf, with $461,247 for Feder and $636,089 for Wolf." (thanks to Raising Kaine's Lowell)
Further info on a poll regarding the race from Raising Kaine site:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3172
Posted by: Predictor at July 15, 2006 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
woops. those numbers aren't right. I did the search on the FEC page for July Quarterly, and the report I got was not the one I was looking for -- still not sure why it happened. I'll update you once I get the numbers right. If someone feels like deleting my above comment, because it is misleading -- and a bit embarrasing -- that'd be cool.
mea culpa.
Posted by: msnook at July 15, 2006 05:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Please don't post entire articles or large excerpts - usually two or three paragraphs at most are sufficient. Also, please use the blockquote tags when quoting material so that we can see which material is being quoted. And finally, please make sure to include a link to the quoted material. Thanks!
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 15, 2006 05:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MI-08
Marcinkowski (D): $165,210 raised
COH: $225,733
This is in a district that only went 54-45 for Bush. No number yet for Rogers (R), but he had just shy of 1M reported in the last quarter.
CQpolitics had an article about this race. They think Marcinkowski (a former CIA agent who knew Valerie Wilson) has a pretty good shot at this race. This used to be a Democratic seat until Rogers won by 700 votes in 2000 and then it was gerrymandered to make it more republican in 2002.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/06/mi_8_marcinkowski_aims_to_take.html
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00417477/227947/
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 05:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
KY-03
John Yarmuth (D)
Total Receipts: $412,395
COH: $417,929
Anne Northup (R)
Total Recipts: $318,688 (Go John!)
COH: $1,854,187
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 06:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ID-01 - open seat
Larry Grant (D)
Total receipts: $81,899
COH: $73,982
Bill Sali (R, and total wingnut, many state republican lawmakers hate him)
Total receipts: $166,115
COH: $91,790
So this may be more competitive than one might think at first glance.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00414078/227573/
http://mydd.com/story/2006/5/24/192715/109
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WA-05 (Tom Foley's old seat)
Peter Goldmark (D)
Total Receipts: $210,065
COH: $134,911 (after starting with $0 at the beginning of the quarter!!)
Cathy McMorris(R, 1st termer)
Total Receipts: $125,945
COH: $466,955
Is it time for a post on Mr. Goldmark?
http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 06:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
RE: Peter Goldmark
Speak of the devil....
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/7/15/115825/441
Posted by: nada at July 15, 2006 06:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Tammy Duckworth (IL - 6) raised $844k - Wow! She raised more than 2x her GOP opponent - Peter Roskam ($382k)
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00418525/227893/
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00410969/228007/
Posted by: AndTun1 at July 15, 2006 09:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WY-AL
Gary Trauner (D)
Total Receipts: $174,281
COH: $234,786
Barbara Cubin
Total Receipts: $149,063
COH: $217,871 (!)
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00415588/226546/
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00290155/226547/
Posted by: nada at July 16, 2006 12:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
VT-AL
Peter Welch (D)
Total Receipts: $403,861
COH: $815,989
Martha (A different kind of republican, only not) Rainville
Total Receipts: $255,425
COH: $339,221
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00413179/226946/
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00414755/226768/
Posted by: nada at July 16, 2006 12:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PA-04
Jason Altmire (D)
Total Receipts: $149,618
COH: $135,943
Melissa Hart
Total Receipts: $242,605
COH: $849,806
So he's got a ways to go. OTOH, he did release a poll last month showing Hart with pretty anemic numbers (leading ALtmire 53% to 39%) which is pretty cool considering how low his name recognition must be. This district only went for Bush 54-45, so it's definately one to watch, especially with the anti-incumbent mood in PA, which was especially strong in western PA.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00413310/227567/
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00346114/226501/
http://www.jasonaltmire.com/pressroom/details.asp?fldIndex=62
Posted by: nada at July 16, 2006 01:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
No exciting federal races in Oregon this year, but for what it's worth we've posted 2Q and CoH figures for everyone we found online at Loaded Orygun. All the incumbents look safe, and in particular Darlene Hooley (OR-5) and Greg Walden (OR-2, R) enjoyed good quarters and have big stacks of on hand cash.
Can anyone explain why Republican state party filings often stop in 2003? The few states I've looked at seemed to be that way.
Posted by: loadedorygun at July 16, 2006 01:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CA-11 (Pombo v. McNerney)
This race, against one of the worst Republicans in Congress is currently rated "leans republican" by the Cook Political Report. A poll taken five weeks before the 6/7 primary showed McNerney leading Pombo by four points. Pombo survived the primary, getting 62% of the republican primary vote.
The previous reporting period ended on 5/17. Thus, the current reporting period was for 44 days, from 5/18-6/30.
During the latest 44-day period, Dem challenger Jerry McNerney raised $217,787, for a cycle total of $448,946. His cash on hand on 5/17 was $71,252. As of 6/30, it had increased to $151,672.
Pombo, however, raised $546,998 during the latest 44-day period, for a cycle total of $2.47 million. His 5/17 COH was $802,203. As of 6/30, it was $939,096. Thus, as of 7/1, Pombo has a 6-1 COH advantage.
QUESTION (ISSUE?) On McNerney's report, he shows five contributions from Act Blue, which I infer are the totals of the fundraising pages for him. But he never shows contributions from me, or from others I know contributed to him thru the Netroots page on Act Blue. Is this allowed?
Posted by: hilltopper at July 16, 2006 03:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ActBlue is considered a "bundler" in campaign finance parlance. I'm not sure what the reporting requirements are vis-a-vis bundlers, but I think that campaigns just report the full amount from the bundler, while the bundler reports the individual donations.
Also, if you gave less than $200, it doesn't need to be specifically itemized.
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 16, 2006 07:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hilltopper, an important point about Pombo's primary is that his opponent, McCloskey, isn't supporting Pombo and has made it clear that he prefers McNerney. A significant part of the 31% of Republican voters McCloskey got in the primary may go to McNerney in the general.
Posted by: KCinDC at July 16, 2006 08:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
KCinDC,
I totally agree and have argued to the people at the Hotline, local reporters, etc., that the primary results show that Pombo is in serious trouble. His lifeline is money from oil, gas, timber, mining, tobacco, and casino industries and they are who he represents. I think Pombo remains favored, but not by much and I will be doing everything I can to help retire him. I wish the DCCC would do the same.
Posted by: hilltopper at July 16, 2006 08:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
To add to KCinDC, Pombo recently voted for a bill that I believe passed the House, that would open up off shore drilling, including off the CA coast. This will not go over well with CA voters even in his moderately conservative district.
I've been following the demographic trends in this exurban district and it is moving to the Dems due to a large influx of homebuyers leaving the SF-Berkley/Oakland markets. Combined with the fact that Pombo is anathema to McCloskey (dismantling enviro laws he put in place) and did not get his endorsement, these things don't bode well for Pombo. Hopefully McNerney will get a strong assist from Environmental groups/PAC's as Pombo has a huge funding edge. As McNerney's name will be next to DiFi's on the ballot and the rest of the State ticket will be strong, I'm hoping that we will get a coattail effect here. McNerney picked up most of the areas newspaper endorsements in the primary run and I expect that he'll do even better with those in the general.
Posted by: Predictor at July 17, 2006 01:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It may be of interest to note that Pombo's Republican primary opponent, Pete McCloskey, says on his website not only that it would be better if his supporters voted for Jerry McNerney, but also that voters in CA-04 should desert corrupt GOP incumbent John Doolittle:
It is my considered conclusion that the greatest service any of us can do between now and November is to work for a Democrat majority in the House, not for partisan reasons but because the country runs better when there is at least one House of Congress willing to serve as a reasonable check and balance, exercising oversight over an executive branch which has so clearly demonstrated arrogance and incompetence. So, let's put this past failed attempt aside and work in whatever ways we can to help the opponents of Messrs. Doolittle, Pombo and all like them.
Pombo is both rich and powerful. It won't be easy to knock him out of the House. But it looks like this is the year.
Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 17, 2006 01:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CA-11 is about 30 mi away from me.Seeing as Nancy P. won't need my help here, I'm seriously thinking about volunteer work for McNerney, and will be monitoring news on this campaign closely as its in my "Top 5 Most likely surprise upset list" of rancorous Gop congresspersons. Thelma Drake VA-02 is one of the others.
Thanks for that post CW, I don't see McNerney listing McCloskey as an endorser on his website list.
Posted by: Predictor at July 17, 2006 03:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
IL-10
Dan Seals is a great candidate and I really would like to think we have a chance to beat faux moderate republican Mark Kirk, but Kirk has established quite a cash advantage in the Chicago Ad market. $1.9MM COH vs $508m for Seals. Hopefully Dan can make up the ground in Q3.
http://www.couragemakesamajority.com/2006/07/il10_fundrasing.html
Posted by: Nick A at July 17, 2006 05:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohio-13 (Sherrod Brown's seat) Survey/USA Poll 7/17
Sutton-D 48%
Foltin-R 30%
Kennedy (I-"Gop activist") 6%
Undecided 16%
MOE 5%
Bush Approval rating in District = 28%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=b8837302-8b5d-45bb-a645-8eaa35233834&q=29599
Posted by: Predictor at July 17, 2006 07:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Now that the new $$ numbers are out, I want to talk a bit about my favorite Congressional race in the country -- Indiana 08, in the SW corner of the state. I think Vandeburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth is FINALLY going to retire Congressman John Hostettler -- a character that even by Indiana standards must have a special hamlet in Wingnuttia named after him. Ellsworth has raised over a million, and has almost 700K on hand, while Hostettler has under 200K. That's not unusual for him, as he hates raising money, and relies on others to come bail him out -- but still, being an incumbent and down that much ....
That said, I don't at all count this in the win column yet. In the 90s I lived in his district in Bloomington (before it was redistricted), and there was more than once I thought we had him beat and he won. We've had good, well funded candidates before that for a variety of reasons have fallen short. Hostettler has an army of volunteers, based in the rural churches, that gives him as good of a ground game as anyone I've ever seen. That said, I think that between Ellsworth, and a growing number of people in the district that Hostettler has worn out his welcome, I'm cautiously optimistic.
In 2004, he won by 8 points (about average for how he's done). Using 2004 numbers, the district basically has three parts:
Vigo and Vermillion Counties (Terre Haute area) -- About 15% of the total vote cast, and Hostettler lost the area by 16 points. This is the Democratic area of the district, full of lots of blue collar, conservative Democrats. Ellsworth is a PERFECT fit for this area, and he should do even better than a 16 point win.
Vandeburgh County (Evansville) -- About 25% of the total vote cast, and Hostettler won the county by 2 points. This is where this election is going to be won or lost. It's Ellsworth's home and political base, he's extremely popular, a lot of people down there are feeling ignored by Hostettler, Ellsworth's got the money to be on TV for the remainder of the campaign, etc. I think he really needs to take this by at least 10 points to win the district. Why?
Because of "the rest of the district" -- about 60% of the total vote cast, which Hostettler won by 18%. This is small town and rural Indiana, where he just racks up the social conservative vote in an impressive fashion. Ellsworth will do better than losing by 18 points (especially in the far south of the district), but we can't count on that much better.
Finally, don't let how "red" the district is on a national/Presidential level scare you too much. Folks down there are populist conservatives more than they are committed Republicans -- and we in Indiana have gotten pretty good at getting voters to split tickets. In other words, they will vote for Democrats who run good campaigns and are good fits for the district, and I think Ellsworth just might be that type of candidate.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at July 17, 2006 08:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
IndianaProgressive, nice insights on that IN-08 race. I'll definitely be following those numbers as they trickle in on November 7. Given that polls close in Indiana at 6 p.m. eastern time (or at least they have in the past), the results should be in for IN-08 and IN-09 (and KY-04) earlier than any other national battlegrounds. If we're winning in those races, it's a good sign of things to come. If we're not, it's gonna be another disappointing night.
What's your take on the specifics of the IN-09 race?
Posted by: Mark at July 17, 2006 10:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just listened to an interview with a reporter from Barron's magazine sent to IN-09 for a story since it is perceived as a bellweather district. The reporter said he went with the idea that Sodrel [R-INC} was probably in good shape. That quickly changed as he visited 10 of the 20 counties in the district. He expected flag burning, gay marriage and immigration to be the hot issues in this rural conservative district. He found that Sodrel has been mostly invisible and those three issues are not what people are talking about. Instead, they are unhappy with the Iraq war, the economy and the budget deficit. All three issues hurt the republican incumbent, Sodrel. He thought that there was a good chance that this would be a Dem pickup district.
Posted by: IndyDan at July 17, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with your take, IndyDan -- if Baron Hill can shift the debate to those issues, and off of the social issues, he can win. Both candidates, especially Sodrel, have raised a lot of money, and it's a rare situation where the challenger is as well known as the incumbent -- maybe even more so, because as you said, I've also heard that Sodrel has been largely invisible in the district. Kind of ironic, since he's trying to hang the label "Beltway Baron" on his opponent, despite the fact that Hill's family still lives in the district, and he came home every weekend while serving in Congress. Also, Sodrel's being clobbered for his vote for CAFTA -- that's going to be a major issue.
One interesting thing about this district, Mark, is that there really isn't a population center like you see in Indiana 08, and if you look at the county-by-county returns, almost every county was decided by 10 points or less one way or the other. In other words, it's going to be a protracted, nasty battle fought all over the district. I'm a gambling man, and I wouldn't put any money on what's going to happen. In the long run, I think this district is probably even a bit tougher for us than Indiana 08 is -- meaning if we don't take it this time, turn it red for the forseeable future.
And yes, our polls still close at 6pm (wouldn't want to give those working folks a good time to vote, would we!?!). Everyone knows that these two races will be close -- I think the real indication of a good night will be if Indiana 02 looks close from the beginning.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at July 18, 2006 07:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
IndianaProgressive, thanks for the IN-09 insights. I agree that the demographics favor us in IN-09, particularly with Bloomington now part of the district. The rural areas here aren't as tough here as IN-08 either and some are even solidly Dem (Perry and Scott Counties). Of the two races, I'll be most disillusioned if we're not winning IN-09 simply because of demographics and Baron Hill's high profile. IndyDan's report on the contest there was certainly encouraging. Good point about IN-02 as well. I'll be keeping close tabs on that as a bellwether early in the evening.
I've made my summer updates on Senate, House and gubernatorial races on my blog. I probably won't get much love here for my thoughts on the CT-Sen race but hopefully my other analyses will provoke some interest. http://mark28.blogspot.com
Posted by: Mark at July 18, 2006 08:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New York's got a number of competitive races. Gillibrand in NY20, Arcuri in NY24, and Massa in NY29 are probably the top 3 right now, though it's still early. I'm part of a group of local bloggers from across New York that have gotten together to cover New York's Congressional races and the release of the second quarter numbers:
NY13 looks at NY13 and NY26
Daniel Millstone at Daily Gotham looks at NY19
Democracy in Albany looks at NY20
Bob Aubin looks at NY23
WFP Blog looks at NY24
Walsh Watch looks at NY25
Rochester Turning looks at NY29
Posted by: Steve at July 18, 2006 03:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Sutton-D 48%
Foltin-R 30%
Kennedy (I-"Gop activist") 6%
Undecided 16%
"
Damn- you mean a high-ticket Cheney fundraiser doesn't put you in the lead? Craig Foltin is probably curled up in a ball somewhere whimpering. Hey Craig, I was just at your website. I see photos of you with school kids, factory workers, old people, American flags. Where are the photos of you and Dickie together? When are THEY going up on your site? LOL.
Posted by: Ansatasia P at July 18, 2006 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
While these are all important races that will be exciting to follow, the thing I am most concerned about right now is that the Democratic Party is considering having an early caucus (between Iowa and New Hampshire) held in Las Vegas. Yes, that's right, the Democrats who are trying to convince voters that they too have morals and values, want to have a caucus in Sin City of all places! I think this sends the wrong message to key voters, and as a woman I am offended that they would hold a caucus in a city that is known for its sexual exploitation of women!
Posted by: Tam at July 18, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'd recommend considering Chris Carney (PA-10) -- very winnable seat, wounded GOPer by his own heinous acts (settled a case with a woman who alleged he choked her... and she was his mistress) who barely won a not really contested primary.
Carney is a good guy, fighting Dem running a grassroots campaign that is not quite as connected to the netroots as it should be, perhaps because the other PA races have heretofore overshadowed it.
Posted by: Jeff Hauser at July 18, 2006 08:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Exciting updates on the Cook 7/19 Political Report. Thelma Drake's VA-02 has been moved from "Leans republican" to "Tossup" - hooray!!!!
And noted on the evil Jean Schmidt thread, her race has been added to the chart as "likely republican", bringing the total number of gop competitive seats to 54, up 1 from the last report.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_jul19.pdf
Posted by: Predictor at July 20, 2006 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Meant to add to my above post that Cook moved TX-22 (DeLay) from Likely republican" to the more competitive "Leans republican". :-)
Posted by: Predictor at July 20, 2006 07:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PA-07 Sestak vs. Weldon:
CQPolitics has changed its race rating here from "Republican Favored to the more competitive "Leans Republican":
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/07/pa_7_superb_fundraising_gives.html
Posted by: Predictor at July 21, 2006 11:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Unfortunately Casey, who doesn't need it, is winning Boxer's PAC for a Change endorsement vote. I think McCaskill was ahead for a little while there. Where are all these netroots Casey fanatics coming from? I suppose they're people who (understandably) really hate Santorum but aren't looking at the big picture. Is Dan Savage sending them?
Posted by: KCinDC at July 21, 2006 03:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just a comment on NADA and IndyDan's comments:
For one John Yarmuth: will not win this district!
Ann Northup has a huge lead in the polls and for one has been really changing the vote mind set of the Afican American vote here in Louisville. Also Yarmuth has really upset the bar owners of Louisville and does not have the support of the police or the fire departments here in Louisville. The bar owners group just raised tons of money for Northup and the mayor cand Downard. Which is a surprise even for me! also the huge voter registration of Afican americans switching to the republican party in Louisville! It is almost not real! Louisville was a 3 to 1 Dem to Rep ratio as of the last info! But it seems the Dem's can't beat northup! I really don't see it happing much to soon! This race was really over when Yarmouth won the primary! Wrong candiate to run against Northup! Should have been Horne! Now even the Dem's know it is over! Alot of Dem's are supporting Ann's race with money!
As for the Sodrel and Hill race. Hill is very strong in the upper Ind area of seymour! But got clobbered in southern Ind. For one Hill got the big head in his last 2 terms and pissed off alot of moderate Dem's. In fact the case for Sodrel not being in the district! I have seen him everywhere in the Jeffersonville and New Albany area as of late. He is well to liked in the southern Indiana area, which is most of the vote! I just don't see it happening! Sodrel has been the most visable congressman in the southern Indiana area for decades! I just heard that Bobby Knight was going to do a infocommerical for Sodrel! It is supposed to be done at the Huber farms. That would be huge for him in that district. They still love ole Bobby
Posted by: Maricleman at July 25, 2006 02:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment