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Saturday, July 08, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm hunkered down in bar-study mode - the exam is July 25th & 26th - so I won't be blogging for a few weeks. The rest of the gang here at SSP will, of course, see you through. If you've got any fundraising info to report, please post it here.

Update (James L.): As noted in the comments, go vote in Barbara Boxer's PAC For A Change Senate Challengers poll. The candidate who nets the most votes will receive a fundraising appeal to Boxer's e-mail list. And if you've seen the PAC's Actblue page, you'll know that she has more than a few subscribers. This is a good chance to get some cash thrown towards your favorite candidate.

Also, it's your last chance to vote in Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC competition. 10 candidates are competing for a chance to receive a fundraiser hosted by Warner himself. Voting ends tomorrow.

Posted at 06:13 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Virginia 02 Kellam - D vs. Drake-R

Granted the polling source, however, good news given the fact that this is a republican leaning & held seat:
VA02 Poll: Kellam Leads Drake
"7/6/06 Kellam for Congress, Charles Kelly - 427.5785

VA02 Poll: Kellam Leads Drake Phil Kellam up 45% to 42% over vulnerable freshman

Thelma Drake Drake's job performance rating dismal with just 36% positive, 53% negative

VIRGINIA BEACH - Virginia's 2nd district Democratic nominee Phil Kellam released a district-wide general election poll today showing him with a three-point lead over vulnerable freshman Thelma Drake. The attached polling advisory from Alan Secrest of Cooper & Secrest Associates of Alexandria, Virginia details some of the polls findings."
continued: http://www.philkellam.com/passing/pass.cfm?section=press&id=49

Posted by: Predictor at July 8, 2006 07:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Drake and Kellam bump heads over ads, war in 1st debate
By JON FRANK, The Virginian-Pilot
© June 18, 2006

"VIRGINIA BEACH - U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake and Democratic challenger Philip Kellam debated for the first time Saturday and gently sparred over several key issues : the war in Iraq, immigration, health care costs and energy policy.

On most of the issues, the two candidates basically agreed.

Both want the flow of illegal immigrants curtailed. Both think health care costs should never overwhelm military families or elderly people. Both think the Bush a dministrations's energy policy has not worked .

However, the crowd at the Kempsville branch of the Virginia Beach Public Library - estimated at about 130 by the Filipino American Action Group, which organized the forum - reacted most strongly to Drake's request that Kellam denounce a series of ads sponsored by the liberal-leaning political action group MoveOn.org .

Hoots and jeers accompanied Drake's plea to end the advertising campaign, which say s she supports the interests of oil companies, pharmaceutical companies and defense contractors over those of the people of the 2nd D istrict .

"I hope personal attacks will cease," Drake said, "and that this campaign will focus on a debate of issues, with mutual respect. In the future I hope you will join me in condemning false, negative attack ads."

Cox Communications stopped running the MoveOn ads last week, after Drake's campaign threatened legal action. Local broadcast stations decided to continue running the ads."
cont: http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=106263&ran=43626

Posted by: Predictor at July 8, 2006 07:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Barbara Boxer's "Pac for A Change" Voting for Senate Candidates funding ends July 21st, current results:
Current Vote Leaders
Bob Casey (PA)
23%
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (TX) 12%
Sherrod Brown (OH) 10%
Pete Ashdown (UT) 9%
Jim Webb (VA) 8%
Claire McCaskill (MO) 6%
Three Others Tied 5%
As of 2pm, July 8

http://ga4.org/pacforachange/senate_vote.html

Posted by: Predictor at July 8, 2006 07:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Where's Bob Casey getting the support in Bab's pac? I mean, yes he's gonna win, he's a democrat, and Santorum has 2x the funds, but he's still not desperate for cash.

Radnofsky has the Texas leagues behind her, something I'm learnign is not to be underestimated, and besides Texas needs some help rejuvinating the party.

I voted for Sherrod Brown, I think he'd be an awsome senator. Position wise, he's pretty close to me. However a Radnofsky, Webb, or even Ashdown win would be nice as well.

Posted by: Joseph Vogas at July 8, 2006 11:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm constantly getting e-mail from Radnofsky -- seems like more than any other candidate -- but is there really a reason to send her money rather than someone who's slightly less of an extreme longshot (Webb, say)? Am I missing something? Is there reason to hope for a Hutchison implosion?

Why are people any more excited about Radnofsky than, say, Hatch's opponent? If it's about building the Texas Democratic Party at the state and local level, is funding Radnofsky really the best way to do that?

Posted by: KCinDC at July 9, 2006 11:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ARTICLE 78~!

Posted by: Terry at July 9, 2006 01:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I went for Webb. He's the best "long-shot" candidate and it gives us a shot at doing damage to a well funded Gop potential Prez candidate. I don't see that Casey will need the bucks to topple Sanitarium, Brown & McCaskill are good choices but Radnofsky & Ashdown are way too unlikely. If I were to send bucks to a Texas candidate it would be Lampson, depending on how the whole scenario unfolds in the 22nd.
As a former Virginian, I would like to see Webb do well as I believe we can pick up VA-02 and have a decent shot at a few other CD's especially in Northern Virginia.

Posted by: Predictor at July 9, 2006 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I went for Webb also, being just outside Virginia, where my Democratic parents and siblings live. I really don't understand how Ashdown can be ahead of Webb. That's just crazy.

Posted by: KCinDC at July 9, 2006 02:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well KC, also remember that in just another 2 years that a very unpopular Texas Senator is up for reelection in Texas, so why should we just write off this race as if it meant nothing at all? Do you realize that Texas is a demographic timebomb waiting to happen, perhaps becoming the next California-esque stronghold of the Democratic party? Radnofsky is almost as much as a longshot as Jack Carter. Should we not compete there?

Of the top 5 senate contestants (Brown, Casey, Whitehouse, Tester and McCaskill), the only 2 that actually need the money are Tester and McCaskill, as the other 3 have huge warchests.

Posted by: KainIIIC at July 9, 2006 03:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I went for Claire McCaskill. The race is winnable, but it makes me nervous, the way the lead in that race keeps shifting back and forth.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 9, 2006 03:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sure, it would be nice to reclaim Texas and make headway in Utah, but if I'm going to write a check there has to be some scintilla of viability, a shot at making a statement and having multiple effect or domino outcomes. At this point in Texas the Dem Gov candidate is running beind Kinky Friedman -I & Perry-R and only a point ahead of former Gop'er Strayhorn-I (Survey/Usa 6/26), Bell is pulling 20%. The redistricting issue there has effectively pre-empted any possible gains in Congressional seats (except 22nd) or the State Legislature.
Unless there is some sort of massive demographic or ideological shift, I don't see Texas turning blue for a long time. California was able to do this over the course of a few decades due to a massive demographic shift and influx of population. You are still more likely to have liberals moving to the great climes of CA or VA or FL than Texas, the Bush/DeLay gang has seen to that.
My heart goes out to you Lone Star staters but this is one of the reasons I chose to move to CA not TX.
Virginia is ripe for a change, Kaine & Warner are proof of that. VA came within 340 votes of electing a Dem to the AG post. The Northern VA burbs and Tidewater are heavily influenced by National politics, just what the Gop fears in this election.

Posted by: Predictor at July 9, 2006 04:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I voted for Webb. He's got the best chance out of the "long-shot" candidates. I agree with KainIIIC, though, that Tester and McCaskill both need contributions as well. I voted for Tester over at Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC, and I'll vote for McCaskill in the next PAC voting opportunity I see.

Posted by: The Caped Composer at July 9, 2006 05:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bob Casey at 25% in the Boxer thing? Wow. He must have one hell of an e-mail list, because I doubt very many people are pushing for him in the blogs.

What's more, among all challengers, he surely needs it the least. Then again, Boxer's PAC has a pretty poor track record of picking candidates who really need the money. Look at how high Bill Nelson is on that ActBlue page.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 9, 2006 06:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If I were less diplomatic, I would suggest that Barbara's PAC undergo a name change to "PAC For The Same Old Shit". Her fundraising appeals have focused more on incumbent protection than anything else. I hope this is a move towards changing that.

Posted by: James L. at July 9, 2006 07:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now, now, Boxer's better than Feinstein! I'm voting for Chretien-Grn, LOL.
Kos has a good thread on a new dirty campaign tactic by Lieberman, entitled:
"CT-Sen: Now Come the Lies", Crooks and Liars has the exposee here: http://www.crooksandliars.com/posts/2006/07/09/lieberman-ad-uses-fake-lamont-bumper-sticker/

Posted by: Predictor at July 9, 2006 09:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This week, since Jerry McNerney's going to be here in DC, I'm thinking about CA-11 and finally getting rid of Richard Pombo.

Posted by: KCinDC at July 9, 2006 09:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So is Bush attempting to kiss Pombo in that pic in the link or did he just think he was the Pillsbury dough boy? LOL

Posted by: Predictor at July 9, 2006 10:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, the caption at Pombo's site says "President Bush compliments Congressman Pombo's clean shave at United Defense on May 2, 2003."

Bush is really, really into manhandling people in various ways -- especially rubbing bald heads. It seems like some sort of fratboy dominance thing. I'm surprised there aren't shots of him giving some reporter or congressman a noogie.

Posted by: KCinDC at July 9, 2006 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

LOL KCinDC, its (he's) pretty creepy. But did he really kiss Joe Lieberman????

Posted by: Predictor at July 10, 2006 12:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The blogs should really try and put some unified pressure behind a candidate -any single candidate- other than Bob Casey for that PAC money. Unlike other bloggers, I don't have anything against Bob's politics -I disagree with him on some issues, but I still think he'll make a good Senator and become a valuable member of our caucus, but there's just no way that we need to give him another pile of money when we have the chance to help other top tier candidates (like Jon Tester or Claire McCaskill) who aren't quite as money-flush as he, or even when we can give some quality second tier candidates (like Jim Webb or Jack Carter or hell even Ashdown) a leg up.

All of the major PACs are going to give money to Casey anyway. He doesn't need to win this contest. But we're not going to make any progress unless we all unite behind a particular alternative.

Posted by: everrpa at July 10, 2006 11:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe her mailing list is worried about taking even a large lead for granted?

The pressure-point vote for Radnofsky seems tactically off-base, to me.
I'm sympathetic to the Texas blogworld's well-organized support for Courage in TX-21, in the Warner run-off;
but deflecting Boxer's PAC from McCaskill, Tester, Brown, Whitehouse, Webb, or even Casey
to the trailing TX candidate seems like an egregious mis-allocation of resources.
Maybe I'm misreading the situation, but some of these other races seem like more viable options, to me.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 10, 2006 11:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kos agrees about Casey lack of need for funds, but doesn't distinguish among Radnofsky, Brown, Tester, Webb, McCaskill, and Ashdown.

Posted by: KCinDC at July 10, 2006 01:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Al Weed - VA-05
He just released his poll, done by Zogby.

I remember a couple of months ago Paul Hodes, second time candidate like Al, released a poll showing 32-48. Well, Al's at 35-49.5, so I'm pretty excited about those numbers too.

Posted by: msnook at July 10, 2006 02:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This post is about issues placed on ballots to spur their base to get out and vote.

In Wisconsin in 2006 the GOP controlled legislature came up with a one two punch, or so they thought.

In November Wisconsin shall be voting to add to the Wisconsin State Constitution a gay marriage & civil unions ban, which would also cover co-habitating heterosexual couples. They also added a referenda on re-imposing the death penalty which was abolished 12 July 1853 in Wisconsin and we have done quite well without it.

Wispolitics.com posted the reslts of polling on the Gay Marriage Amendment

48.5% in Favor
47.8% opposed
3.7% don't know/refused to answer

A majority of political independents opposed the Gay Marriage Amendment.

What was even more interesting was their conclusion that the Amendment battle was more of a motivator driving progressives to vote in opposition to the Amendment rather than conservatives voting in favor.

Fair Wisconsin just raised 1 million dollars to begin a media campaign stressing gay families and the harm that will befall the children of homosexual couples.

The best chance to defeat one of these Amendments is right now, right here in Wisconsin and Fair Wisconsin is leading the charge.

Gov. Jim DOYLE has been firm in opposing this amendment. The political parties in the legislature polarized along party lines. Unlike many other state the Democrats statewide have worked hard to unify opposition to the Amendment. DOYLE has a barn burner of a re-election campaign against Congressman Mark GREEN of Green Bay and wouldn't it be ironic if the religious right motivated the opposition into re-electing a true champion of stem cell research?

Gov. DOYLE is at best a slight favorite over Mark GREEN. The social issues the GOP batters Dems with elsewhere are simply not resonating up here in Wisconsin thus far in 2006.

Posted by: walja at July 10, 2006 05:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wisconsin offers yet another object lesson, then, in the importance of controlling the state legislatures.

The lower house in Wisconsin is out of reach, but a flip of 3 seats in the state senate would break the GOP's control.

I don't have any Wisconsin state senate races on my radar, at this point.
Can anyone point me toward information on one or more good candidates?

Some key 2006 races in other state legislatures are profiled at:

http://www.actblue.com/page/06act-local-think-global

Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 11, 2006 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

State Senate Races thought to be competitive in Wisconsin thus far: *=incumbent

5th West Allis D-Jim SULLIVAN v. *R-Glenn GROTHMAN
GROTHMAN is the Rick SANTORUM of Wisconsin but worse.

9th Sheboygan D-Jamie AULIK v. *R-Joe LEIBHAM

21st Stutevant D-Rep. John LEHMAN v. R-William McRaynolds open GOP held seat

23rd Eau CLaire D-Pat KREILOW v. *R-David ZEIN
ZEIN is the NRAs point man in the Senate

31st Eau Claire D-Christopher DANOU vs. Kathleen VINEOUT winner to face *R-Ron BROWN

GOP is targeting 25th *D-Robert JAUCH & 29th *D-Russell DECKER

these are the races am aware of at this time.

Posted by: walja at July 11, 2006 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thank you for putting together the information on the Wisconsin state senate.
I'll cruise their websites and gather some more information as best I can.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 11, 2006 05:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"NY 25: Capanna Drops Out; Walsh Will Face Maffei This Fall
By Marie Horrigan | 5:24 PM; Jul. 10, 2006 |
From CQ Politics:
"New York Democrat Dan Maffei will have a clear shot at nine-term Republican Rep. James T. Walsh in the state’s 25th District now that his only serious primary challenger has withdrawn from the race.

Attorney Paloma Capanna said Monday that she was pulling out of the Sept. 12 primary in the interest of forging party unity.

“The 2006 elections are about changing the direction of the country,” Capanna said in a statement. “The way to do that is to avoid a primary and to stand together in our efforts to defeat Mr. Walsh.”

Capanna struggled to raise money. As of March 31, she had $89,000 cash-on-hand, compared to $175,000 for Maffei and $502,000 for Walsh. The next batch of campaign reports are due to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Saturday."
continued: http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/07/ny_25_capanna_drops_out_walsh.html

Nice bit of good news.

Posted by: Predictor at July 11, 2006 08:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Correction for previous post. Glen GROTHMAN is not up in 2006. That was the Democrat GROTHMAN defeated to win the seat after defeating Senate Majority Leader Mary PANZER in the GOP primary. Sorry.

And tonight's Capital Times ran the results of their poll on the Governor's race and they have DOYLE 48.8%
GREEN 35.7%

Two of the last three statewide polls now had DOYLE with double digit lead. The third had GREEN ahead by 1. Personally, this is going to be a tight race. GREEN's support will rise as he is introduced to southern, western, and Milwaukee Wisconsin where his name recognition numbers are low. But so far GREEN is not building much momentum even with President BUSH showing up today to raise 600k to 1000k for the GREEN campaign. Even with that huge haul DOYLE maintains a healthy lead in cash raised thus far.

One development I do like is the united Dem message that Mark GREEN supported George BUSHs irresponsible spending habits. They are attacking the GOP for wreckless spending.

Plus GREEN is on the defensive over stem cell research. The University of Wisconsin Alumni Foundation holds the patents for most of those stem cells eligible after BUSH imposed his restrictions on stem cell research. We are talking about 100 million in funds, serious money, flowing into Wisconsin - unless Mark GREEN wins and bans such research. GREEN has been reduced to stating that he really does support stem cell research - but there is a moral side to the issue. Meanwhile his voting record is 100% anti stem cell research.

DOYLE's lead is Girl Power! Among women who support their candidate strongly DOYLE had the strong support of 36.2% of women. GREEN had the strong support of 12.3% of women. That is a huge gender problem for the GOP to overcome.

And Herb KOHL will now win re-election in a walk. The State announced who made the ballot today and only GOPer appearing is Robert Gerald LORGE, from a family of gadflys, and if he can get to 40% of the vote in November I will be stunned. The good thing is this frees up the KOHL campaign to help Governor DOYLE hold off Mark GREEN. KOHL can self fund so he is not going to be competing with DOYLE for Democratic contributions.

Posted by: walja at July 12, 2006 04:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another dropout MN Senate (D):
"Ford Bell withdraws from U.S. Senate race
The political first-timer ended his "insurgent" bid, citing lack of funds. He pledged support for Amy Klobuchar, the DFL front-runner.
Patricia Lopez, Star Tribune

Last update: July 11, 2006 – 10:54 PM

Ford Bell, the activist veterinarian who struggled for more than a year to establish himself as a DFL contender for the U.S. Senate, pulled out of the race Tuesday, just days before the candidate filing deadline.

"There is not a doubt in my mind that our message would carry the day in November against [GOP candidate] Mark Kennedy," Bell said. "But it has also become clear that our campaign will not be able to raise enough money to win the September primary."

Bell's withdrawal apparently removes the last obstacle to the nomination of DFL-endorsed candidate Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County Attorney who has been the established front-runner and favorite of national party leaders."
http://www.startribune.com/587/story/545925.html

Posted by: Predictor at July 12, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

FL-09 Race Heating Up...

From SPTimes Buzz:

Fundraising picked up during the second quarter of this year for Phyllis Busansky, the Democratic candidate [FL-09] running to replace Rep. Mike Bilirakis in Congress.

Busansky raised $335,000 while Gus Bilirakis, the Republican frontrunner raised upwards of $265,000.

Busansky is making great progress. The GOP is scared...

Posted by: poliblogist at July 13, 2006 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball 7/13/06- 30 most competitive seats now expanded to 50. #31-50:

31 Washington 08 Republican Leans Republican
32 Connecticut 05 Republican Leans Republican
33 New York 20 Republican Leans Republican
34 Ohio 01 Republican Leans Republican
35 Wisconsin 08 Republican (OPEN) Leans Republican
36 California 11 Republican Leans Republican
37 Colorado 03 Democratic Leans Democratic
38 Pennsylvania 10 Republican Leans Republican
39 Florida 13 Republican (OPEN) Leans Republican
40 South Carolina 05 Democratic Likely Democratic
41 Colorado 04 Republican Likely Republican
42 Nevada 02 Republican (OPEN) Likely Republican
43 Vermont AL Independent (OPEN) Likely Democratic
44 New York 29 Republican Likely Republican
45 Indiana 02 Republican Likely Republican
46 New Jersey 07 Republican Likely Republican
47 Nevada 03 Republican Likely Republican
48 New York 25 Republican Likely Republican
49 Illinois 17 Democratic (OPEN) Likely Democratic
50 Kentucky 03 Republican Likely Republican

Posted by: Predictor at July 14, 2006 09:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment