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Saturday, July 29, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Ah, sweet freedom. With the bar over, I can go back to being a full-time obsessive political junkie blogger. But first, let's hear your thoughts about what's happening.

Posted at 05:01 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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With Leonard Boswell, my new Congressman, being rated the most vulnerable incumbent in the country by some analysts, the IA-03 race is definitely rising on my radar. The good news for Boswell is that he appears healthier and is improving his fundraising efforts. The lukewarm news is that there is little evidence thus far in central Iowa that a battleground House race is three months away, which probably favors the incumbent. The bad news is that I've noticed far more Jeff Lamberti bumper stickers than Boswell stickers so far. I'm noticing more Boswell stickers now, which could simply mean Boswell is as late getting the ball rolling on that end of his campaign as he was the fundraising. I am fully expecting a nailbiter here with suburban Des Moines getting more Republican every election cycle. Hopefully, the rural counties on the east side of the district will prevail for Boswell given that he'll have higher name ID than Lamberti.

Posted by: Mark at July 29, 2006 09:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Upstate New York is on my mind.

The races in NY 24, NY 29, NY 20, NY 25, NY 26 & NY 19 may well flip to us in listed liklihood (Sorry NY 23).

Meanwhile our incumbents in NY 21, NY 22, NY 27 and NY 28 are facing token challengers which is amazing particularly for freshman Higgins in the 27th who won an open race in a then GOP held district when it became open. Shades of the 24th anyone?

Posted by: BENAWU at July 29, 2006 09:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wisconsin-8th Open-GOP (Mark GREEN running for Gov.)

It appears that Appleton Doctor Steve KAGEN might be ahead in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin's open Congressional seat. His campaign relased a poll showing him with a double digit lead over Democrats Nancy NUSSBAUM and Jamie WALL. While campaigns releasing favorable polls can be suspect, GOP operatives appear to agree that KAGEN has taken a slight lead in the Democratic primary at this time.

KAGEN is a mini- Herb KOHL. He is virtually self funding his campaign, leads in funds spent and funds in the bank. Herb KOHL first won his Senate seat in a similar fashion.

Wisconsin Assembly - 66th GOP-Samantha KERKMAN
And a set back for the Dems in their effort to recapture the State Assembly as Democrat JoEllen STORTZ was removed from the ballot for only submitting 197 legal signatures when 200 were needed. The GOP incumbent will now face only Green Party nominee Larry HARDING in November.

Kansas CD-2 Jim RYUN.
RYUN is the type of incumbent that needs to face a serious focused challenge this November. He has a documented track record of wingnuttery and is truly not effective in Congress. He us merely filling that seat.

Nancy BOYDA is another challenger who fell short in 2004 during a Presidential election year and is positioned to upgrade her performance without the BUSH tide swamping her in the 2006 re-match. The social conservatives have split the GOP soundly in Kansas. Jim RYUN is part of the Terry SCHAIVO - anti-stem cell research wing of the GOP and if Nancy can get the needed resources this race could tighten in a hurry. I urge the netroots community to keep Nancy BOYDA Dem nominee KS-2 in mind.

Posted by: walja at July 30, 2006 05:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-05 - Im a little disappointed to see Democratic challenger Al Weed trailing incumbent asshole Virgil Goode 59-32. All this talk of corruption and tomfoolery just isnt sticking. Its a shame b/c Weed has a lot to offer this district.

Posted by: AlecBGreen at July 30, 2006 01:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tennessee's primary is on Thursday. We get to find out who's going to be representing TN-1 and TN-9 in the 110th Congress.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at July 30, 2006 03:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Republican Primary in Missouri is coming up, and the R's are running a candidate for state auditor, Sandra Thomas, who misplaced $195K of Platte County funds. The truly odious Sam Graves (R-MO 6) banged out a fundraising letter pounded out a fundraising letter for her campaign (is the fundraising goal $195K?) and here is my very favorite excerpt:

By knocking out an entrenched Democrat in Claire McCaskill ...MissouriRepublicans can prevent future liberal politicians from troubling great Republican Leaders like U.S. Senator Jim Talent and Governor Matt Blunt.

Speaking of Talent-less Hack and the Boy Blunder, son-of-satan: Talent is going to lose to Claire McCaskilll in November, and fellow Republican and State Treasurer Sarah Steeleman is gearing up to kick Matt Blunt's skinny little punk ass all over the state in the '08 primary.

(Sorry about the vitriol this week - PMS, coupled with outrage is a volatile mix.)

Posted by: Global Citizen at July 30, 2006 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MI-07

Everyone might be watching the Lieberman-Lamont race on August 8th, but it's also primary day in Michigan. There are a couple of Michigan primaries that are interesting, but the district that should be watched is the 7th.

Faux-moderate first-term GOP incumbent Joe Schwarz is facing a Club for Growth-sponsored challenge from former State Rep. Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of these guys that opposes things like the 16th Amendment and the Separation of Church and State.

No public polling that I've seen, but in the money race, Walberg is competitive. Schwarz won a six-way primary in 2004 with only 28%, and the two-man race this year has been pretty ugly.

The Democrats in the district have had a hard time with raising money, but they're getting better, and the leader is Fred Strack. Kerry got 45% in 2004, and a Constitution Party candidate that's running again this time got 3 percent, which could help make this competitive.

I'm pretty excited.

Posted by: Fitzy D. at July 30, 2006 07:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm glad you brought up NY-29, BENAWU. (At the very least it prevents me from getting into an analysis of Leonard Boswell's relatively rubber stamp Republican voting record which I know is so counter-productive to what I want: the loss of every single Republican running for office in November.) So... on a more positive note, this week Eric Massa was the live guest over at Firedoglake's Blue America. Eric's got a great shot at taking the district that gave Bush his biggest percentage win in New York in both 2000 and 2004 from red to blue. It's worth reading the archive of the blog session (link above). And if I offended anyone from Iowa, last week our guest was Bruce Braley, a true blue progressive and his archived chat is there too. We do these live chats every Saturday at 2PM (East Coast time). Next Saturday: Charlie Brown, the man who will be running the execrable John Doolittle out of town.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at July 30, 2006 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CT-02
This is an important Congressional race, a key part of taking back the House. But the Lamont/Lieberman race is hurting other Dems in CT, taking money, volunteers and media attention away from other races. The Democratic establishment MUST convince Lieberman to abandon his Independent campaign. I'm hopeful that Bill Clinton, who campaigned for Lieberman, will be in a strong position to put pressure on Lieberman to drop out if (when) he loses the primary. All the Dems I know are saddened/puzzled by Clinton's pro-Lieberman stance, but still willing to forgive him if he comes on strong for Lamont after the primary.

Posted by: MVD at July 30, 2006 08:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DemocraticLuntz, is there are any chance that TN-01 could play out similarly to ID-01, where an intra-party slugfest results in the nomination of a truly odious Republican wingnut and gives the Democratic challenger a longshot opportunity for an upset? Just curious because it seems like the Dems have completely written off this open seat.

DownWithTyranny, I'm new to Iowa so I'm not overly familiar with specifics of Boswell's record, but is he really a "rubber stamp" for Republicans? What is his level of support for voting with Democrats?

Posted by: Mark at July 30, 2006 09:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Progressivepunch gives Boswell a 67.61 rating, which is pretty bad especially for a district that voted for Gore. However, that rating may be worse considering that Boswell has been absent due to health reasons quite a bit. Still a horrible rating, though.

Posted by: KainIIIC at July 30, 2006 10:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And with NE-03 (Bush won it with over 75% of the vote, but where Scott Kleeb actually had more cash on hand at the end of the second quarter than his Republican opponent).

But I doubt it'll happen in TN-01, because there are four people running for the Democratic nomination, none of whom have raised a significant amount of money.

Boswell's voting record is better than [http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/house/lib.htm John Murtha's], so I don't know what downwithtyranny's complaining about.

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at July 30, 2006 10:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Boswell will probably retire after this next Congress, though (if he lives through it).

Posted by: DemocraticLuntz at July 30, 2006 10:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

McCaskill and Talent are what I am watching. The Repugs here in Missouri have done a great job of cutting service to the needy and disabled in order to balance the state budget. If the state can not afford to help the needy with my tax dollars then why are my tax dollars good enough for the insurance company's and business's? Compassionate conservative my ass. What would good people of faith think the government should do with our tax dollars? Every time I put this to "joe six pack distracted by gay's, gun's and stem cell's", I am greeted with a puzzled humph and you got me there look.

Posted by: Kyle SF at July 30, 2006 10:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am curious what's going on with the Goode-Weed race (obligatory joke here). I know Virginia is at best purple, but it seems like given Goode's direct links to corruption, a challenger would be gaining a little more traction. Is it something about Weed? Something about Goode that makes him immune to the corruption stuff? The district?

Posted by: MissLaura at July 31, 2006 03:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd appreciate it, if you guys could read my diary at dailykos.

It's about a serious problem that we might face in the elections this November.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/31/11819/2257

Posted by: Craig at July 31, 2006 04:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-05: Al Weed (D challenger) v Goode.

Al was one of the original Dean Dozen; he lost by 2-1 in 2004 and has spent the past 2 years traveling the district (which is huge), listening and talking to the people and raising his profile. Polls now show the race in a tie due in part to growing anti-incumbent sentiment ($ scandal, war). I traveled to Green County--the northern point of the district--over the weekend for the Democratic Reunion to canvass registered voters. Over and over, people said they were fed up with the incumbents in Washington and pointed to the war as a major issue. Yet pundits & DCCC still show this as solid Republican.

Some of the campaign staff & volunteers are wondering if the reason for the lack of support here is due to the Rahm v Dean split within the national party. What do you think about the race and the effect of the DCCC vs. 50 state strategy (and still unresolved Rahm vs. Howard battle) on this and other close but 'hidden' races?

Posted by: edgery at July 31, 2006 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am excited about Andrew Hurst in VA-11. He just got a big boost with a front page Washington Post article exposing the corruption of Tom Davis.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/28/161514/571

Plus their field program is taking off. They had an exciting weekend of Democratic Reunion/Canvass events. I think they can bring back the spark from NOVA in the 2005 elections and get another Democratic victory.

Posted by: BrianL at July 31, 2006 11:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

edgery - where did you see a poll showing Weed & Goode tied? Last one I saw has Goode up 59-32... This is the year to take the district back but its gonna be a helluva uphill battle for Weed. This is one of those classic examples where the challenger is SO much better for the district yet incumbency and cash will probably keep it in GOP hands.

Posted by: AlecBGreen at July 31, 2006 11:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like everyone's thoughts have leapt ahead either to the Tennessee primary (where I'm cheered by a recent poll showing progessive Steve Cohen

http://www.cohenforcongress.com/index.html

ahead in the Memphis district primary) or to the primaries in CT and Michigan.

There's a primary TOMORROW in Kansas.

Kansas? you ask? What's going on in Kansas?

The battle against wingnut creationism, that's what.
The lone incumbent up this cycle for re-election to the state Board of Education
who actually believes in evolution faces a primary challenge from a socially conservative Democrat.

I sent her $30.
If Democrats stand for anything at all, surely one of the key things
is that the Scopes "monkey" trial was in 1925, and it's supposed to be over.

I posted details about the race the other day at daily kos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/26/131438/819

Posted by: Christopher Walker at July 31, 2006 11:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-05: Al Weed v Virgil "MZM" Goode --

The poll you're referring to is from a Lynchburg TV station -- they polled 50% Repubs and the rest split between Dems and Independents. Their poll also missed a lot of African-Americans. It was a snap-shot poll with no issues or information about either candidate provided.

In contrast, the Zogby poll I'm talking about reached 200 more individuals and is more geographically and ethnically balanced according to the demographics of the district. In early July when the Zogby polling was done, Goode had a 14 point snap-shot lead (49%-35%, below the 50% usually considered safe incumbent). Goode's real vulnerability shows up when respondents are asked who they would support in the upcoming election – a Republican incumbent or a Democratic challenger – they choose the Democrat by a 12-point margin (49%-37%). After hearing information about both candidates, Al significantly closes the gap with Goode, 41%-40% for Goode.

The only thing holding Al Weed back at this point is the recognition of the voters. Once they learn more about him, they move dramatically away from the habit of supporting Goode. That's the reason I spent Saturday canvasing in Green County (the apex of the triangle that is this district, only 2 hours away from Washington). Resources is what Al needs to get his name and his story out to the voters.

This is a highly winnable district with a Republican incumbent who votes overwhelmingly along the Bush line. That is why I find it hard to understand why the DCCC and national party aren't lining up behind Al.

Posted by: edgery at July 31, 2006 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We've had all of our primaries here in the Ohio Valley. We're looking forward to being a big part of the Swing come November. Four congressional districts all meet in the Louisville Kentucky media market and all four are contenders.

In KY-3, John Yarmuth was polling nearly even in June (Secrest) with five term Republican incumbent Anne Northup. KY-3 voted for Clinton twice, Gore, and Kerry, and is now looking to oust Ms. Northup.

IN-9 has former congressman Baron Hill seeking to defeat one termer Mike Sodrel immediately across the river from Louisville. Sodrel beat Hill in the closest of 2004's races.

KY-2 is a sleeper between Retired Colonel Mike Waever, a five term Democratic state legislator and Republican Ron Lewis, who long ago broke his promise on term limits. Col. Weaver should do well in this district south of Louisville, which includes Fort Knox and its retired military population.

Finally KY-4 has another former Congressman, Democrat Ken Lucas running against first termer Geoff Davis. Unlike Lewis in the 2nd, Lucas kept his word and retired when he said he would. Now the district wants their old congressman back.

That's four of the 15 districts needed in one market here along the border between the South and the Midwest. I hope others are paying attention.

Posted by: jaytn at July 31, 2006 04:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I realize this is in really, REALLY bad taste but did anyone else find it ironic and have it even bring on a quick chuckle that a poll from LYNCHburg VA undercounted African-Americans. Sorry, I know that is a very bad and tasteless joke, but then again, Lynchburg is the location of Jerry Falwell's Liberty University

Posted by: stebu at July 31, 2006 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Edgery, thanks for the context. I do have to say, though, that polls on incumbent vs. generic challenger are less convincing when there's a specific challenger who's not close to living up to those numbers. As you say, if Weed can get his name out there it looks encouraging, but that's unfortunately a big if. And as miserably hot as it was in NH saturday, I have so much sympathy for you in what must've been worse VA heat. So major respect to you for getting out there. Good luck!

Posted by: MissLaura at July 31, 2006 05:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm with BENAWU, New York is the swing state this year, with as many competitive races as any other state and Eliot Spitzer headed to a landslide at the top of the ticket. It's going to be a big year here in New York.

Posted by: Steve at August 1, 2006 01:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Upstate New York is on my mind.

The races in NY 24, NY 29, NY 20, NY 25, NY 26 & NY 19 may well flip to us in listed liklihood."

Me too. I think there's a strong chance in 3 (Kuhl, Sweeney, Boehlert's open seat) somewhat of a chance in three others (Walsh, Reynolds, Kelly).

Posted by: TomT at August 1, 2006 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Via e-mail from "Barbara Boxer's PAC For A Change":

"Congratulations to Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri, who won our online vote as to whom our PAC for a Change community would support next."

Posted by: Predictor at August 1, 2006 09:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Washington-08: CQ Politics has moved this race from Republican Favored to the more competitive Leans Republican. Go Burner!
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/08/burners_fundraising_makes_wash.html

Posted by: Predictor at August 2, 2006 11:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nevada Senate:

Rasmussen (7/31):

Ensign 46%
Carter 39%
Other 4%
Undecided 11%

Posted by: dpinzow at August 2, 2006 01:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The latest edition of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball includes some major prediction revisions.
Dem House gains from 6 to 8 seats up to 12 to 15 seats. Dem Senate gains from 2 to 3 seats up to 3 to 6 seats. Statehouse gains rated as a 4 to 6 seat Dem pickup. Sabato says not to celebrate yet, but it looks increasingly good that the Dems will take over control of Congress at this point.
Article entitled "The 2006 Midterms: Guilt by Assocation?" :
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.html?id=DNW2006080301

Posted by: Predictor at August 3, 2006 12:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment