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Monday, August 07, 2006

CO, CT, GA, MI, MO: Tuesday Primary Election Preview

Posted by RBH

Here's the rundown of the elections which will likely produce news tomorrow.

Starting off first in Colorado where the biggest races are the Republican Primary in the 5th District and the Democratic Primary in the 7th District.

In the 5th district race, the winning Republican will likely face Jay Fawcett (who is the frontrunner in his primary). From a short combing though Google News, we find that Doug Lamborn has the Club for Growth supporters with him, Hefley supporters are apparently supporting Crank. Basically the entire primary could end with the winner recieving a very low percentage of the vote, under 40%, maybe under 35%. But right now, the winner is anybody's guess. I should note that Anderson (who is running as pro-choice, which means "pro-choice compared to other Republicans), Bremer (Paul Bremer's brother), and Rayburn (retired Air Force General) are all wildcards and they could get a surprising number of votes.

In the 7th district, the favorite to face Rick O'Donnell appears to be Ed Perlmutter. Ed has had a pretty solid lead in Survey USA polls over Peggy Lamm. But then again in an election like this, surprises will occur.

Moving on to Connecticut.

The big race is between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. It appears to be a pretty big deal. Basically the results could go either way, although Lamont is going into the election with a 6 point lead in the latest Quinnipac poll. I'm pretty sure that this race will be the top attraction, and also the one race which does not require a long explanation.

In Georgia, the big election is between Cynthia McKinney and Hank Johnson in the 4th district. McKinney had a plurality last time, but for this election, it could go either way.

In Michigan, the biggest race will be in MI-07 between Congressman Joe Schwarz and Tim Walberg. Schwarz is under fire from the right in this campaign and could be on the way out of Congress. The likely Democratic nominee is Sharon Renier. In other races, I'm expecting Keith Bouchard to win the Republican Senate primary and I wouldn't be stunned if Patricia Godchaux got around 1/3rd of the vote in her primary against Congressman Joe Knollenberg.

In Missouri, no major races will occur in the primaries. The closest primary race will probably be in MO-02 between Akin and Sherman Parker, and that's probably not due to be close at all. Claire McCaskill and Jim Talent are expected to cruise over their unknown opponents.

So, on this election day, there's one more question: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted at 11:48 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Colorado, Connecticut, Democrats, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, Netroots, Republicans | Other Blogs Discussing This Post

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Comments

These primary elections may be the most difficult to predict because of their nature. Its the middle of summer so turnout shold be low. To date there has been an anti-incumbent mood amongst the voters. Turnout will be the key, and it will be low, all around.
Lamont 51.5 to 48.5 over Lieberman
Johnson 51 to 49% over McKinney and in MI-07 its Walberg 52.5% to 47.5% for Shwarz. Renier takes the Dem Nomination.
Although all of these officeholders hold the advantage of incumbency, they are all at risk for being at odds with both/either their party or their constituents. All of these are close enuf to go either way but I'm betting that voters are primed for a change based on results/polls to date. If so, this bodes well for a change of control of congress come November.
Other: Perlmutter (unfortunetly) bests Lamm with 53% of the vote and then positions himself to take CO-07 in the general.

Posted by: Predictor at August 8, 2006 01:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Add: incumbent Cong. Akin easily defeats Parker in MO-02.

Posted by: Predictor at August 8, 2006 01:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Prediction:
Perlmutter(fortunately) wins 58% of the primary votes in CO-07.
And I'll stand with my original number in CT-Sen, Lamont wins with 55%, as I'm almost positive that turnout will benefit Lamont.

Posted by: KainIIIC at August 8, 2006 02:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, in the Michigan Senate race, I presume you're predicting a victory by Michael Bouchard over Keith Butler (as opposed to "Keith Bouchard").

Unless there's a groundswell of silent support for Lieberman I'm not anticipating, I'm predicting Lamont by at least 12 in the Connecticut race.

I'll go with Perlmutter by eight in C0-07, Hank Johnson by six in GA-04, and since I haven't heard anything about the race being competitive, I'll stick with Joe Schwarz by two over Walberg in MI-07.

Posted by: Mark at August 8, 2006 07:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In Michigan, the biggest race will be in MI-07 between Congressman Joe Schwarz and Tim Walberg. Schwarz is under fire from the right in this campaign and could be on the way out of Congress. The likely Democratic nominee is Sharon Renier. In other races, I'm expecting Keith Bouchard to win the Republican Senate primary and I wouldn't be stunned if Patricia Godchaux got around 1/3rd of the vote in her primary against Congressman Joe Knollenberg.

Keith Bouchard? I mean, sure, I'll be for Stabenow in November, but there is a slight difference between Keith Butler and Michael Bouchard. They're not quite the same person.

For MI-07, I think Walberg'll narrowly win, a big defeat for McCain, Bush, and the institutional Republicans that endorsed Schwarz. I've got to disagree on Renier, though. Sharon Renier ran an absolutely pathetic campaign last time that people haven't forgotten, and she's hardly been campaigning at all. My pick is Fred Strack.

Posted by: Fitzy D. at August 8, 2006 10:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment