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Wednesday, August 09, 2006

My Tuesday Primary Review

Posted by RBH

Clearly we know about the biggest news of the night. Despite all the advantages of incumbency, Joe Lieberman was unable to win the primary tonight. Lawmakers who had either supported Lieberman or had stayed neutral are also turning their support to Ned Lamont. Including Evan Bayh and Hillary, and more people will likely speak up soon.

When it comes to the effects of a Lieberman candidacy in November. I still think that people overrate his chances in November. Money just doesn't come out of nowhere. And Lieberman will need money in order to help himself out in November. While Ned Lamont would need some help to get himself on solid ground, he'll also get a lot of things which he did not have for today.

Joe Lieberman's main source of new money will likely come from people who are donors to Republican candidates. The Republicans will be the ones supporting Lieberman, and money that could have went to Shays, Johnson, or Simmons, will be going to Lieberman. That's only a subtle favor, not any sort of big victory for the Democratic candidates running in those districts.

But I'd rather armwrestle Hulk Hogan than get into a money war with the Republicans. There's legitimate reason for concern when it comes to the Democratic challengers in all the purple districts.

I would certainly hope that Joe Lieberman rethinks his plan to run as an Independent, but I'm not expecting a change in his plans for September and October. I would also hope that those people who gave money to Joe Lieberman and who disapprove of his independent candidacy would ask for a refund or return of their contribution.

As for the other races, here are the highlights:

Colorado: Jeff Crank and Doug Lamborn are the frontrunners in CO-05. The winner faces Jay Fawcett. Ed Perlmutter defeats Peggy Lamm in CO-07.

Georgia: Hank Johnson defeats Cynthia McKinney in GA-04. Expect Cynthia to release the official list of people "to blame for Johnson winning" soon, odds are that "Republicans" will top that list. Ha Ha.

Michigan: Joe Schwarz loses to Tim Walberg. Mike Bouchard looks like the winner in the Republican Senate primary. Knollenberg wins 69-31.

Missouri: Lots of Democrats voted, Lots of Republicans voted, but there weren't a lot of close federal races. Over 80% of precincts are in. Akin rolls over Parker (87-13). No word on who'll face Akin, but the frontrunners are Charles Karam and George Weber. Alan Conner, who spent $246K to try and win the MO-04 nomination, lost by 22 points to Jim Noland, who hasn't filed with the FEC, and who has lost three straight elections to Ike Skelton. Noland's wife suing Conner was probably not helpful to Conner's campaign. This should tell you that there's some things that money can't buy. Sara Jo Shettles and Duane Burghard were both uncontested in their primaries to face Sam Graves and Kenny Hulshof. They also outpolled their opponents. Although in the case of MO-09, that's not exactly a feat of strength, but it's a pretty good sign. And yes, I just gave the longest writeup to my own state. I have the keyboard here, after all.

Any night where three incumbents go down is a night of pretty big activity. It should be a sign that being an incumbent in November is not going to be a pleasant thing.

That's my analysis of the night's events. I'm sure that one of the regulars (who isn't on vacation) will have something to say as well.

Posted at 01:43 AM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri | Technorati

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Comments

Excellent wrap-up. I saw a quote from Amy Walter somewhere saying that she didn't think Perlmutter was harmed by the negative campaign between him and Lamm. I hope she's right, because it goes without saying that this district is one of our very best pickup opportunities in the nation.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 9, 2006 11:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With 26 towns yet to report (why so many??) the count is Lieberman 114,011 (47.5%) to Lamont's 126,025(52.5%). So far Lamont has carried every CT county with the exception of New Haven Co. which Lamont trails by only 131 votes, however, there are 4 towns yet to report: (Cheshire,East Haven,North Haven & Seymour) so it may still end up as a Lamont sweep of CT's 8 counties.
Interesting to note that Lieberman carried Schlesinger's hometown of Derby with 63.8% of the vote.

Posted by: Predictor at August 9, 2006 10:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Michigan: Latest Survey/USA polls (8/8)
Gov: De Vos over Granholm by 8 points (MOE = 3.7%)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=27bc992d-e678-421d-a37e-4aa30d1d4a48&q=30147

Sen: Stabenow over Bouchard by 7 points (MOE = 3.7%) http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=27bc992d-e678-421d-a37e-4aa30d1d4a48&q=30148

Posted by: Predictor at August 10, 2006 02:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment