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Friday, August 04, 2006

TN-Sen: Corker (R) Wins, Will Challenge Ford

Posted by DavidNYC

The results of last night's TN-Sen GOP primary (thanks, Craig):

Bob Corker: 48
Ed Bryant: 34
Van Hilleary: 17

So former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker earns the right to take on Democrat Harold Ford for the Tennessee senate race. Any thoughts on what this means for Ford?

Posted at 03:18 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Tennessee | Technorati

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Well, the two more conservative candidates lost but garnered 51% of the vote. Will the conservative base be energized for Corker? Is there such a thing as a Gop "moderate" in TN? Corker has bucks, that is a concern, but does the ex-Mayor have the resume/plausible experience to take on a Senate seat?
Chattanooga population: 155,554 (2000)

Interesting that Survey/USA did pretty well by predicting a 45/31/20 split in their 8/2 poll.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=2214d46f-f5e6-45c0-9c93-7e6d4e3ed32b&q=28028

Posted by: Predictor at August 4, 2006 03:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I apologize for this not being related to the current topic. I was wondering if it was possible to add Victoria Wulsin onto the Netroots page. She's a progressive candidate fighting for Healthcare and jobs. She fought the growing AIDS epidemic in Africa and she's prepared to fight any outbreak of Bird Flu in the future. She already has 288 donations and about 16,000 dollars worth of contributions. Plus polling has shown her tied with Jean Schmidt 44-44 and she has more cash on hand then schmidt (even though it's only by about 10,000 dollars). I'll understand if you say no, but I would like an explanation why.

Posted by: Craig at August 4, 2006 05:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll need to see one more poll done sometime soon, but my initial reaction now is that Tennessee is now off the table. Ford's been making a lot of the right moves but alas, this seems like a battle he can not win. Shame.

One less option for our mythical 6th seat. I'd like to see another poll for Nevada seante by someone reliable to judge if it really is competitive, if not, only Virginia remains.

Posted by: trowaman at August 4, 2006 08:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As a straight ticket Democrat voter, it disappoints me that TN Democrats could not find a stronger candidate to run for senate than Harold Ford. By stronger I mean a white candidate like their governor - Phil Bredesen. I like Harold Ford, he is a very good orator & impressive on TV, but let's face it, a black man has no chance of winning a statewide office in the South. My prediction at this time is Corker 54%- Ford 44%.

Posted by: AndTun1 at August 4, 2006 09:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm not totally convinced that a black candidate is immediately excluded from victory in the South. Douglas Wilder and J.C. Watts, representing both political parties, were able to win over majority-white audiences in Southern races. Where I think Ford's real Achille's heel comes in is the combination of his race, his family surname, and his hometown. Memphis is looked upon in Tennessee the way that New Orleans is in the rest of Louisiana....as a scary place of rampant crime, "welfare mamas", and sinful activity. Ford caught a break when his uncle's criminal trial was postponed from October until February, but the nagging reminder of three criminal indictments in his immediate family certainly won't work to Ford's favor as this campaign intensifies, even though the past indictments ended in acquittal.

I'll give Ford props running a strong campaign and I'd have give him about one in three odds of taking down Ed Bryant had he won the primary last night. Corker's gonna be tougher because he'll be perceived as a "Lamar Alexander Republican", conservative enough for the wingnuts to support, but not so conservative that he scares away the moderate Republicans. The pipe dream of the wingnuts staying home with Corker as the nominee is unlikely to play out in the post-Karl Rove era where the GOP always seems to be able to mobilize its base.

As I said from the beginning, Ford has some strengths as a candidate and I've been pretty impressed with his campaign operation thus far, but he's the exact opposite of the kind of Democrat who tends to win in Tennessee. He's not exactly liberal on social issues, but is pro-choice. On the other hand, he's hardly a populist on economic issues and has rarely met a free trade agreement he hasn't fallen in love with. This formula is gonna be hard to sell to a skeptical conservative electorate. Unfortunately, I have to agree with trowaman that Tennessee Republicans most likely drove a stake through the heart of Ford's chances last night. Time will tell, but my faint wisp of optimism regarding this race just got a whole lot fainter.

Posted by: Mark at August 4, 2006 10:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In the mean time, while we wait to see how the Senate campaign develops,
it looks as though the 9th district will get a new Congressman
who's a bit more progressive than Ford was on social issues.
State Senator Steve Cohen emerged from the wide field of candidates hoping for the nomination
and will be on the ticket in November.
He looks pretty good to me:

http://www.cohenforcongress.com/index.html

I added him to the ActBlue page at:

http://www.actblue.com/page/2006fund

It's been a solid Blue district, but he'll face
an independent candidate as well as a Republican in the fall election,
so he may need a little support.
Emily's List will be withdrawing their attention from this district;
they always sulk when their candidate doesn't win the primary, so that funding will dry up now.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at August 4, 2006 11:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cohen's victory in TN-09 strikes me as another obstacle for Ford. Turnout among African-Americans in this majority black district may be suppressed with caucasian candidate Cohen victorious as the party nominee. Hopefully this won't be the case, but if Ford's trailing in the polls leading up to the election, Memphis blacks unhappy that their preferred candidate(s) in TN-09 didn't win could decide to sit the election out.

Posted by: Mark at August 4, 2006 11:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

To Craig: The answer is that we aren't adding any more candidates to the netroots page right now (and may not add any more for the rest of the election season).

If and when we do open up the page for more nominations, you will certainly know. In the meantime, though, I suggest starting your own ActBlue page and promoting your candidate that way.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 4, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TN is not off the table. But very frankly, Ford is in a dangerous spot right now. If he can't close the gap by labor day, the DSCC very well may pull funding for the race if Corker's up 10 and Nevada starts to close.

Ford's brother is running as an independent in TN-09 so that may make turnout in Memphis even out some.

Posted by: ben114 at August 4, 2006 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does Ford's brother have a chance in his indie run? Considering there's a white guy running on the Democratic side?

Posted by: Mark at August 4, 2006 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I doubt it.

Posted by: RBH at August 4, 2006 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ford is one of the smartest politicians I have ever seen and I think what your going to see him do soon, is endorse his brother. By doing this, this will give his brother some credibility and it will help with voter turnout in this district.

Posted by: safi at August 5, 2006 01:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment