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Wednesday, August 16, 2006

TX-22: Cook Changes Rating to Lean-Dem

Posted by DavidNYC

From a Cook Report e-mail (also available on the site's front page):

TX-22 Open (DeLay) moves from Toss-Up to Lean D. Winning a write-in campaign is hard enough, but squabbling among Republicans in the district means that there may not be a consensus candidate for the national and state party to rally around. While this district retains a good Republican advantage – and there’s always room to be surprised in politics – the benefit of the doubt now goes to Democrat Nick Lampson.

This marks the first time, I believe, that Cook (or any pro prognosticator, for that matter) has marked a GOP-held House seat as anything better than a tossup. Obviously, the circumstances here are extremely unusual (and CQ notes that only four federal write-in campaigns have succeeded over the past 52 years). But I wonder if any other GOP seats will move into the Dem column over the next few months.

Posted at 06:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

"This marks the first time, I believe, that Cook (or any pro prognosticator, for that matter) has marked a GOP-held House seat as anything better than a tossup."

Larry Sabato has now rated PA-06 as "Leans Democrat", which I think is pretty generous considering the only poll data we've seen is Lois Murphy's internal poll where she had a scant one-point lead.

As for TX-22, I would've been ecstatic about the current situation six months ago, but after seeing Ohio Dems' successful write-in campaign for Charlie Wilson, I'm still a little leery about the RCCC pulling out all the stops to first rally behind a consensus candidate and then fund a successful write-in campaign of their own. At this stage, I'm still inclined to rate this race a toss-up.

Posted by: Mark at August 16, 2006 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In addition to Sugarland Mayor Wallace-R, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs -R and GOP State Committeeman Tim Turner -R, have also filed to run as write-in candidates, there is no singular consensus Gop write-in candidate, nor is there likely to be. I'm sure Cook took this factor into account and I beleive this re-evaluation is realistic.

Posted by: Predictor at August 17, 2006 01:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll bet that Beauprez's open seat in CO and Nussle's open seat in IA get rated Lean Dem by November.

Posted by: X Stryker at August 17, 2006 03:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Turner has not filed for the seat.

Don Richardson, who did file, will be dropping out and removing himself from consideration.

Unless things have changed in the last 36 hours, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has not filed -- she chose to respect the process and not start collecting signatures until after getting the nod of the District Precinct Chairs (I know this for a certainty -- I was sitting at her kitchen table with her when she made that decision and told the supporters meeting with her).

Posted by: Rhymes With Right at August 19, 2006 11:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment