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Wednesday, August 30, 2006

TX-23, TX-10: Ciro Dropping Out; Ankrum Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Breaking news from the indispensible Burnt Orange Report (via e-mail):

Making the announcement at a San Antonio AFL-CIO meeting, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez has announced he will withdraw his bid for the new 23rd Congressional District against Henry Bonilla. That leaves Albert Uresti, Lukin Gilliland, Rick Bolanos, and Augie Beltran as the remaining Democrats in the race. Gilliland appears to be set as a potential new frontrunner among the challengers.

I don't know anything about Gilliland, but clearly BOR is the place to keep reading for more on this development. More here. Also from BOR, a shocking new poll from Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum (likely voters, no trendlines):

Ankrum (D): 42
McCaul (R-inc.): 51
Badnarik (L): 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Now, this is a robo-poll, from an outfit I've never heard of (Forensic Economic Data Consulting). But unless this poll is totally wacky, this is pretty stunning. I mean, this district is R+13, and Ankrum had raised all of $30,000 as of the last reporting period - 10% as much as the third-party candidate, Libertarian Michael Badnarik. I'm sure Badnarik is holding down McCaul's numbers, but still, this is an impressive showing for a third-tier Dem. And again, if this survey has any legitimacy whatsoever, it's clearly bad news for the GOP in general.

Posted at 10:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati

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Comments

Yeah, believe me when I say I was shocked too. But Andkrum has been all over that district, has an incredible resume, had a primary that went to a runoff allowing him to get out there even more... Badnarik is a strong Libertarian (wasn't he the presidential nominee?) and surly sucks away from McCaul. And Dems didn't even run anyone in 2004 in the seat. All we had was a write-in, Lorenzo Sadun, a UT Math Professor, who ended up coming in under the Libertarian nominee back then. That says a lot for write-ins (attn: TX-22) but also about how we have no real basis to judge this district on in Texas. It was created as a new unnatural seat in the first (or was it 2nd) round of redistricting.

Posted by: Karl-T at August 30, 2006 11:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's not Badnarik that's holding down McCaul's numbers so much as it is George Bush. I've got the crosstabs on this poll, and as I blogged about it:

The breakdown of the approve/disapprove question says it all: Over 91% of the voters who strongly or somewhat approved of George W. Bush preferred McCaul, while 78% of those who strongly or somewhat disapproved went for Ankrum (it was 88% of the strong disapprovers).

That's pretty much what you need to know. Even in Texas, Bush is dragging down Republican candidates.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner at August 30, 2006 11:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Perhaps we can find someone with a basic understanding of HTML for Ankrum while we're at it. The poll is very good news though.

Yes, Badnarik was the Libertarian Presidential nominee, but if I remember correctly, he played a big role, along with David Cobb, in getting a recount in Ohio two years ago - a good portion of his votes could very well be coming from Ankrum.

Posted by: NYPopulist at August 31, 2006 12:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's an interesting observation, Kuff - you're suggesting that support for Badnarik is really just another version of anti-incumbent sentiment, which flows straight from Bush down to McCaul. I could buy that.

But man, if Michael McCaul is even remotely in trouble, the GOP should be in screaming, raving panic mode.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 31, 2006 01:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TX-23-Looks like only candidate, Educator and "Band of Brothers" Kerry supporter Rick Bolanos has a website up. It iis fairly basic, with no mention of where he hails from:
http://rickbolanosfortexas.com/

Posted by: Predictor at August 31, 2006 09:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Running away from Bush: Here's an article on how Gop Congressional Candidates, specifically how 3 endangered ones in CT and CA-11's Pombo are distancing themselves from the Prez from hell.
Comparisons to the 74 & 94 Mid-terms are addressed:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/08/31/MNGMGKSMHD1.DTL

Posted by: Predictor at August 31, 2006 09:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TX-23 Candidate Rick BOLAÑOS lists his address as El Paso. Here's a link to the filings to date for all Special Congressional Elections in Texas:
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/forms/candidates/2006con.pdf

Posted by: Predictor at August 31, 2006 10:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rick does say he's from El Paso in the first sentence on his website. 'Rick Bolaños has worked tirelessly for the rights of the average American in his home town of El Paso, Texas and across America.'

Posted by: George at August 31, 2006 10:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

LOL George, sure does, I was looking in his Bio section, which does not mention thar info. Bonilla hails from the Bexar (San Antonio) portion of the newly drawn District. El Paso County voted for Kerry with 56.5% of the vote. However, the majority of El Paso County, including the City of El Paso is in CD-16 not CD-23.

Posted by: Predictor at August 31, 2006 12:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ankrum wasn't on my radar until quite recently.
If you glance through his postings over at the big orange blog, you may be impressed.

He talks real sense about Iraq, for one.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at August 31, 2006 03:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like Ciro changed his mind about dropping out.

Posted by: KCinDC at September 2, 2006 07:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment