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Saturday, August 12, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCHave at it.
Posted at 11:09 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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I learned a lesson tonight.
When I fail to reload the page, publish a WOT, and then delete it, I have to actually go and edit something else to make the deleted post disappear.
In related news, I changed the timestamp on this thread from 23:09:18 to 23:09:19 to make my ghostpost disappear. I don't think i'm gonna make the cut for the Ghostbusters squad. It took me 15 minutes to realize that I should try changing something else.
Posted by: RBH ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at August 13, 2006 12:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Primary for Nevada is this Tuesday.
For Governor, State Senate Leader Dina Titus is expected to win the Democratic nomination even though her conservative Dem opponent has outspent her 2 to 1. On the Republican side, Congressman Jim Gibbons will probably win.
I'm expecting the governors race to really heat up after the Primary. Titus has made some dispariging remarks about Northen Nevada which will surely be used against her (as they were in the Primary). However, Gibbons has been caught plagirizing a speech that attacked liberals, accused Clinton of "wagging the dog" by boming Afghanistan during the Lewinsky scandal, and he called those critical of President Bush's lavish corporate-funded 2004 innagural party "communists" live on the NBC Nightly News (Brokaw was stunned). Gibbons is the front-runner.
The out of the Republican Primary for CD-02 is of importance for Democrats. There are three candidates: Dean Heller (seemingly moderate Secretary of State), Sharron Angle (nutjob anti-tax conservative), and Dawn Gibbons (yes, she is the Congressman's wife). I believe Heller and Angle are neck-and neck in polling, with Angle gaining. If Angle wins, it will be easier for the Democrat Jill Derby to paint herself as the moderate choice in this heavily Republican district. So far Derby's poll numbers and fundraising numbers have been suprisingly good. Derby has no Democratic opposition.
http://www.jillderby.com/
If you want to follow these races, http://www.lasvegasgleaner.com is a great progressive blog for Nevada politics.
Posted by: mbcarl at August 13, 2006 12:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
now that congressional filing is essentially done and dusted NY cong races are on my mind.
20 24 and 29 are all looking very competitve and watch for 25 and 3 to pop up on the radar.
Posted by: BENAWU at August 13, 2006 08:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There is one race that's been on my mind ever since August of last year. Ohio's 2nd Congressional District is normally a solid Republican district but after Democrat Paul Hackett narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt 52-48, this one might be in play again. Jean Schmidt has made a fool of herself on countless occassions. She's lied about her political endorsements and college degrees. She lied when she went before Congress and said that an Ohio State Representative said that we should stay the course in Iraq. The worst thing she has ever done though, is verbally attack a Veteran (Murtha) and call him a coward. She was booed by Congress and her constituents no longer see her as a compassionate conservative. Dr. Victoria Wulsin is a progressive candidate challenging Jean Schmidt in the race. Wulsin went to Africa to fight the growing AIDS pandemic, while Jean Schmidt accepted bribes from coin salesmen. A recent poll showed Wulsin tied with Schmidt 44-44 and honestly I think with a little bit of money Victoria can win. So please consider donating to her campaign at:
http://www.actblue.com/beatjeanschmidt
if you'd like to know more about Wulsin go to her campaign website at
http://www.wulsinforcongress.com
Posted by: Craig at August 13, 2006 12:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CA-11 McNerney vs. Pombo.
Tripped accross a site dedicated to deep-sixing "Dirty Dick" Pombo, it has some good news/info articles including one about Pombo's manipulation of the finalization of FEMA maps for the Sacto Delta area (a hot button local issue invoking fears of a Katrina type disaster) for his own political gain (financial and otherwise):
http://saynotopombo.blogspot.com/2006/07/pombo-tries-to-cover-up-flood-danger.html
Posted by: Predictor at August 13, 2006 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rod Smith / Florida Governor’s Race-
Today Rod Smith was endorsed by 4 of Florida’s largest newspapers because he is the strongest candidate in the race.
• St. Peterburg Times
• Palm Beach Post
• Lakeland Ledger
• Dayton Beach News-Journal
He has what it takes to be a strong progressive governor in the largest swing state and has the Republicans running scared. On top of these endorsements, several of Florida’s leading Republicans were quoted (in the news side of these papers) today about how strong Rod Smith is.
Toughest Democrat to beat? A Republican says Smith
By St. Petersburg Times
Published August 13, 2006
Republican U.S. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Brooksville has served with both Democrats running for governor, state Sen. Rod Smith and U.S. Rep. Jim Davis. Having seen them in action up close, which one does she see as the toughest Democrat to beat in the governor's race?
"I would say Rod Smith. He is a brilliant attorney, thinks quickly on his feet, and I have a very healthy respect for Rod Smith," Brown-Waite - an early backer of Charlie Crist's - said in a Political Connections interview airing at 11 a.m. today on Bay News 9. Off camera, she said she often sought help from Smith, "the most brilliant man in the Florida Senate," and personally likes both Smith and Davis. But "intellectually, Rod Smith has it all over (Davis)."
From the Palm Beach Post:
Former state GOP Chairman Tom Slade says Smith "would be trouble for us if he wins the primary." Republican lobbyists in Tallahassee, who donate to campaigns and work for candidates as part of their jobs, worry among themselves that of the four major candidates, Smith is the most compelling.
And[Former Senate President and current Senator Jim] King said, "As a Republican, I would hate like hell to have to run against him. From my party's standpoint, Rod Smith not winning this primary would be just fine."
Posted by: rodsquad at August 13, 2006 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Primary for Nevada is this Tuesday.
For Governor, State Senate Leader Dina Titus is expected to win the Democratic nomination even though her conservative Democratic opponent has outspent her 2 to 1. On the Republican side, Congressman Jim Gibbons will probably win.
I'm expecting the governors race to really heat up after the Primary. Titus has made some dispariging remarks about Northen Nevada which will surely be used against her (as they were in the Primary). However, topping that, Gibbons has been caught plagirizing a speech that attacked liberals, accused Clinton of "wagging the dog" by boming Afghanistan during the Lewinsky scandal, and he called those critical of President Bush's lavish corporate-funded 2004 innagural party "communists" live on the NBC Nightly News (Brokaw was stunned). Gibbons is the front-runner.
The out of the Republican Primary for CD-02 is of importance for Democrats. There are three candidates: Dean Heller (seemingly moderate Secretary of State), Sharron Angle (nutjob anti-tax conservative), and Dawn Gibbons (yes, she is the Congressman's wife). I believe Heller and Angle are neck-and neck in polling, with Angle gaining. If Angle wins, it will be easier for the Democrat Jill Derby to paint herself as the moderate choice in this heavily Republican district. So far Derby's poll numbers and fundraising numbers have been suprisingly good. Derby has no Democratic opposition. Wes Clark will be watching the Primary returns with Derby.
http://www.jillderby.com/
Posted by: mbcarl at August 13, 2006 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NY-03 - Peter King
Cook updated his chart this week and King got added. I figured this one was off the board, so I was surprised to see it added. I was even more surprised to see King's district went for Kerry. If anyone knows anything about if this district is real please respond.
Also, has Hillary and Spitzer been working the downballot message in NY? I see no reason why Dems should not take the state senate and pull at least 3 house seats.
Posted by: trowaman at August 14, 2006 02:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA
With Gov. Napolitano at the top of the ticket we can really make some headway here. Winning in AZ big this year will really help us in 08 unless McCain is the nominee. its a state we can win, it has been blue in the past, Clinton!!! think about throwing your support to Janet, Jim, Ellen, Harry, and Gabrielle!
Posted by: jerzay at August 14, 2006 10:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NY 3
Mejias (our candidate) has been fundraising a storm and campaigning very aggressively. This one and NY 25 are the dark horse races to keep an eye on between now and november.
2 months ago i would have said that the order of likely pick ups was: 24, 20, 29, 26, 19, 25, 3, 23, 13.
Now I believe it is 24, 29, 20, 3, 25, 19, 26, 23, 13.
Posted by: BENAWU at August 14, 2006 10:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A local race in Florida, the heart of Katherine Harris Country, State House District 69
We’d like to tell you about a local candidate running for the Florida State House in District 69, and why we strongly support him.
To put it simply, Keith Fitzgerald is not just a different kind of candidate, he’s a stellar candidate. We know. We've been there, walking neighborhoods with him, going to events with him, listening to him talk to Floridians. He's good. Watching a candidate for office work hard and make all the right moves is fantastically refreshing in this day and age of what we describe (embarrassingly) as glam-rock politics.
Keith is a remarkably articulate guy -- an intellectual who sounds like you and me -- and he wants to get Florida back in the business of providing a first-class education for our children.
KEITH'S SITE: http://www.gofitzgo.com
DFA PAGE: http://www.dfalink.com/campaign.html?id=1016
PODCAST: http://www.evoca.com/groups/keithfitzgeraldforstatehouse
CONTRIBUTE: http://www.gofitzgo.com/contribute.html
Posted by: Benjamin Kirby at August 14, 2006 11:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm watching NC 11. The Charlotte Observer reported on Sunday that Charles Taylor (R) (Inc) is linking Heath Schuler (D) to Nancy Pelosi's and trying to convince North Carolinians that the Democrats can't be trusted with control of the house.
Interesting tactic. Try to convince a group of god fearing mountain foke that there famous son (Heath Schuler was a NFL quarterback) who made good is no different than someone from San Francisco.
The scarier part of this is the article also states that they are attempting this tactic in other races.
I have attached an address to the article
Republicans are trying this
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/15263552.htm
Posted by: cltpie28 at August 14, 2006 12:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just a few political horseraces to throw on the fire, starting with the home of horseracing (Kentucky).
It looks like Ken Lucas (the old incumbent) has the upper hand on Geoff Davis for KY-4. In Kentucky there's more of a Fletcher anchor weighing down the Republicans than anything else.
The circumstances are similar in Indiana, where Governor Daniels is getting severely criticized for the time-zone issue. Baron Hill looks to be leading freshman incumbent Mike Sodrel in a rematch of 2004's hotly contested IN-9 race. Two other Indiana congressional races, IN-2 and IN-8, are pretty much tossups with shaky Republican incumbents and tough Democratic challengers (especially Ellsworth in the Bloody Eighth).
Like DavidNYC said in earlier posts, there is indeed a bit of pop in Mejias' bat and he's going to make a race of it in NY-3 against Peter "Sen. Joe McCarthy is my idol and" King. King's seat goes above NY-19 and perhaps even NY-25 in terms of vulnerability.
Posted by: dpinzow at August 14, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anybody know how good of a challenger the Dems have in WA-05 to run against one-term GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris? I haven't heard a word about this seat and know it's gotten very Republican in the last decade or so, but given that it's former Speaker of the House Tom Foley's old district, I always feel as though an outside chance exists of winning it back.
Posted by: Mark at August 14, 2006 02:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Actually, the Dems have quite a strong challenge for the Rubber Stamp Cathy McMorris, in Peter Goldmark. He was recently posted about on the DKos frontpage about the vulnerabilities of the traditionally Republican rural West, like ID-01, WY-AL and this one. He went to Harvard and is a farmer, and expects that it will take around 1 million to take down McMorris.
http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/
Posted by: KainIIIC at August 14, 2006 04:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NY-3 is for real.
The Cook Report is a nationally respected newsletter that publishes a list of competitive House races. Democratic candidate Dave Mejias recently spoke to the Cook Report, and based on that interview, the 3rd District was included on the list. The buzz about Dave Mejias is growing! National pundits are now realizing that Peter King is vulnerable. 2006 is the year, and Dave Mejias is the candidate to beat King this November.
Mejias is a County Legislator with a great approval rating in a district that fortunately overlaps with King's congressional district. Mejias has raised a lot of money in a short period of time and shows no signs of slowing down.
Dave has been reaching out to the netroots. He has regular weekly blog posts on Daily Kos and MyDD:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/10/151939/336
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/10/152954/583#readmore
Dave was later interviewed by FireDogLake (followed by Dave’s first live blog):
http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/08/12/blue-america-dave-mejias-ny-03/#more-3947
The response was tremendous.
Posted by: dan kode at August 14, 2006 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Virginia's Fifth ---
Reasons to support Al Weed:
1. He's a great progressive candidate.
2. He is opposing Virgil Goode, Mitch Wade's "Representative A" (Katherine Harris is "Representative B").
3. The Fifth is a fairly rural district, and a little money goes a long way.
4. If Al gets the money to do some advertising, it will free up the money for the grassroots effort. And because everyone who votes for Al will vote for Jim Webb for Senate, the Netsroots get a two-fer!
5. Polls show that Al's positions on issues -- biofuels to revive our farm economy and good jobs to replace the textile mills that shuttered 10 and 20 years ago -- are winners, but that people need to hear the message. When they hear the message, they buy it.
Al Weed -- a candidate that the Netsroots community should be delighted to support!
Posted by: Cvllelaw at August 14, 2006 05:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Been trying to post all day, did the Lieberepublicans hack into this site?? Hopefully the returns aren't in yet:
Nevada Primaries:
Gov Gop:Cong. Gibbons
Gov Dem:St.Sen Titus
NV CD-02 Gop: Will go with Club For Growth candidate Assemblywoman Angle over Cong Gibbon’s wife, but assume it’ll be close.
The big question is whether Deceased Former State Controller Kathy Augustine will win the Gop State Treasuer nomination. She’s dead but still on the ballot and voters in other locations have gone this route before.
Posted by: Predictor at August 15, 2006 08:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Michigan Governor - This race is proof that money really can buy you a close election. Dick DeVos has campaigned on a message of we need jobs in Michigan. This is no different from any other campaign in Michigan. Yet he has not offered even one idea. The closest he came was eliminating a pesky business tax, the SBT. It was eliminated last week, so now jobs should be flowing into the state like there is no tommorrow! DeVos' message is all doom and gloom and doesn't appear to be resonating with Michigan's voters who see that Governor Granholm has actual real life plans with numbers and projections and calculations etc. Governor Granholm will do better as November nears, right now it is DeVos' Amway Inheritance paying the bills for his non-stop advertising blitz. But this race is important, without Governor Granholm Michigan becomes a red red red state...
Posted by: dwishinsky at August 16, 2006 10:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am in NY-03,(and Mejias'd LD as well, the 14th, voted for his re-election last year) and their is a growing buzz with mejias, who just grabbed the AFL-CIO endorsment, an endorsment King has pretty much always gotten.
Do have to correct something above, Bush did win the district in 04. However, that was pretty much he 9/11 impact. Gore won by over 13 in 2000, which is about 9 points under the current lines. I thinK Cook might be doing a combination of the 00 & 04 results.
Posted by: Smash255 at August 20, 2006 04:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment