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Saturday, August 19, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by James L.

I'll be your Open Thread sherpa this week. We've had some pretty hot action in the past few days, considering that it's August: George Allen idiotically made his seemingly-safe Senate seat a ripe target again by astoundingly mocking the ethnic heritage of a Jim Webb videographer. Allen could barely contain his shit-eating grin when he heard that the DSCC was going to take a pass on funding Webb's media campaign two weeks ago, but two weeks can make or break campaigns if the gaffes are big enough. Allen knows he's in hot water and has made himself a likely target again. If the DSCC is at least halfway-savvy, they should be reallocating resources from the much less attractive Arizona Senate race into Virginia right about now.

But enough of that. What races have caught your eye lately? And how do you see November shaping up for the House and Senate race scene?

Posted at 10:00 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

No, I'm just going to see "Snakes on a Plane."

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 18, 2006 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DSCC passed on Webb? WTF!? Do they want to pick up 6 seats or not? From all Ive heard the money is flowing into the DSCC. They better get off their butts and SPEND IT if they want a Democratic Senate in 2006. Allen is a total assclown and I can think of few people in more need of a serious beatdown than him...

Posted by: AlecBGreen at August 18, 2006 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

They passed on Webb after a rough Mason-Dixon poll came out a few weeks ago, but they explicitly left the door open for funding if circumstances improved.

I would say that circumstances just improved.

Posted by: James L. at August 18, 2006 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The DCCC is having its own on-line vote for candidates for it to support. They include over 30 democratic candidates, but did not even include Jerry McNerney in CA-11.

I'm always amazed how the left and outsiders generally seem able to rally behind the democrat after a fair primary, while conservative dems and insiders like the DCCC sit out the fall election in hopes of letting the Dem they did not support lose.

Posted by: hilltopper at August 18, 2006 03:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hilltopper: Unlike almost all of these other vote thingies, the DCCC actually includes a write-in option.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 18, 2006 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So this isn't about a single race, but I think it's an interesting development in NH. Until now, ballots have had the previous election's winning party at the top of the ballot, ie the Republicans have been at the top of the ballot for 40 years. Now the state supreme court has ruled that unconstitutional. They haven't come up with a new system yet, but you figure it has to be better than having the Republicans automatically coming first. My post on it here.

Posted by: MissLaura at August 18, 2006 04:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Huh. Link appears not to be working. Sorry. The story is there, honest.

Posted by: MissLaura at August 18, 2006 04:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David,

I saw the write in option, but let's be realistic. There no chance to win a write in on the DCCC vote. They just want e-mails.

Posted by: hilltopper at August 18, 2006 05:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hilltopper: I can't speak for the DCCC, but when I do these kinds of polls a big thing I'm looking at are the write-ins to see where people are at. I agree it's hard to win as a write-in, but someone who got a strong write-in vote would at least be in the next set of choices. YMMV

Posted by: Steve at August 18, 2006 05:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I don't know. If a gazillion people write-in some random candidate from California's 9,000th congressional district that Bush won with 72% of the vote, I'd probably just ignore it if I were the DCCC. They'll get a ton of random suggestions, many of which will be completely unviable.

I'm not crazy about this contest because it just lends support to someone who already has their support. If they wanted to have a more meaningful contest, they would have picked 10 or 15 candidates that just barely missed the cut of Red to Blue for whatever reason. That said, I can understand to some extent why they would want to separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. I just wished they picked more wheat! :)

Posted by: James L. at August 18, 2006 05:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm curious what the word is on Indiana-02, Democrat Joe Donnelly versus GOP incumbent Chris Chocola.

They are noting a Cook report upgrade at Soapblox Chicago but also saying Donnelly is not cash rich.

Not much happening on his ACT Blue page. (The broad search is always interesting because it shows all the contributors.)

Anyone know much about Brad Ellsworth IN-08 and Baron Hill IN-09?

Posted by: kid oakland at August 18, 2006 06:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, sure, James, but what if you got a gazillion write-in votes for Jerry McNerney, for example? Would you reconsider the snit you're in (we're assuming here that you're Rahm Emanuel) because he beat your candidate in the primary?

Posted by: KCinDC at August 19, 2006 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I would (myself, not Rahm)--but that's only because I would have never given up on CA-11 in the first place. Somehow, though, I doubt even a thousand write-in votes for McNerney is going to sway the committee. They have their own metric to determine how viable a candidate is--and I bet that doesn't include having a strong online following, organization, or e-mail list.

But maybe I'm just cynical due to watching the DCCC play favorites in primaries and then sulk when the vote didn't go the way they saw fit. Grassroots democracy sometimes seems like an obstacle that the DCCC wishes it could circumvent. (I can give some sympathy to the idea that primaries are bad--they are way too late in states like Arizona and New York, for instance.)

I'm kind of going in circles with this, but I see the DCCC as practicing a thoroughly "father knows best" type of philosophy. This can result in some great moves (clearing the field for Arcuri in NY-24, for instance), and some not-so-great moves (abandoning CA-11).

I think hilltopper is likely right about the write-in option as an e-mail list-expander first and foremost.

Posted by: James L. at August 19, 2006 01:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wasn't surprised at all to see the list from DCCC's "Candidate for Change" contest confined to their previously-identified Red to Blue picks, and dominated by somewhat centrist choices.
That's what they do, and it's the only thing they're good at.

I didn't worry about it. I had no difficulty at all finding three relatively progressive candidates in winnable districts in that fairly long list, and voting for them.
And then I went back to working with other mechanisms and groups that represent the more progressive wing of the Party.
We've all got jobs to do. Theirs is putting lots of money behind 'safe' candidates who may win.
Mine is inching the Party leftwards from various pressure points, and getting the word out abut good candidates, most of whom aren't in the DCCC's gene pool.

Speaking of which, there's an interesting discussion on MyDD about Donna Edwards' primary challenge to Al Wynn in Maryland:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/18/152045/011

I wish I had tuned in to this contest earlier in the cycle. It appalls me to learn that Wynn's supporters appear to be working together with Michael Steele's to suppress Edwards' campaign. Why would the Republican running for Senate care about which Democrat wins, in a Congressional primary?
It about has to be because Al Wynn is all too close to the GOP's platform, doesn't it? Viewed, perhaps, as an ally?

Posted by: Christopher Walker at August 19, 2006 09:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This Saturday, Dr. Victoria Wulsin, the Democrat opposing Mean Jean Schmidt in OH-02, will be over at Firedoglake at 2 PM est for a live blogging session. She's as good a candidate as Schmidt is an abysmal one. There's a preview up at Down With Tyranny.

The short version: this race is a lot more winable than most people think it is and Dr. Wulsin, with lots of help from allies like Paul Hackett, Sherrod Brown and ted Strickland, is making a real fight of it.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at August 19, 2006 10:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James, I'd say that the main purpose of the whole contest, not just the write-ins, is to expand the DCCC's e-mail list. Hell, the same is true of all these "help us decide on a candidate" online votes that the various PACs run (especially the PACs that presidential hopefuls have).

Of course I still vote in them.

Posted by: KCinDC at August 19, 2006 10:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Voted for Stender (NJ-07) & Wetterling (MN-06) and wrote in Mc Nerney (CA-11) in the DCCC contest.
Checked out Donna Edwards-D MD-04 given the info above & the MYDD thread on this. Would be great to have her replace Wynn-D, who is obviously too cozy with Bush-R & Steele-R, especially for this heavily Dem and Liberal-Progressive leaning District. She'll definitely receive my support.

Posted by: Predictor at August 19, 2006 07:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You guys see this? Rep. Don Sherwood (PA-10, Chris Carney's opponent) just underwent emergency heart surgery.

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 19, 2006 11:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just sent a modest donation to Donna Edwards...I have never heard of her but I am sick of Dems acting like GOPers. If I wanted a repub, I would vote for one!! Go Donna.

Posted by: IndyDan at August 20, 2006 12:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well hopefully the DSCC will take note of the latest RasmussenPoll; Webb - 42% Allen- 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/virginiaSenate.htm

Posted by: Predictor at August 21, 2006 12:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the MN-01 House race between Democratic challenger Tim Walz and GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht. The two debated this weekend on Agricultural policy, said to be a strength of Gutknecht's, and by the looks of things, Walz trounced the incumbent. There is some more great coverage over at A Bluestem Prarie, a local blog devoted exclusively to the race.

Posted by: Max at August 21, 2006 01:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment