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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

WY-AL: Barbara Cubin Has Another Lousy Primary Showing

Posted by RBH

The results from the August 22nd Primary:

Barbara Cubin - 51,050 (60%)
Bill Winney - 33,955 (40%)

Cubin spent $464,715 though August 2nd, Winney spent $18,645.

In 2004, Cubin won a five-way primary with 55%. Two of her primary opponents spent over $100K in the 03/04 cycle. She then went on to win the general election by a 55-42 margin over Ted Ladd (who spent $373436). Meanwhile, Bush was beating Kerry by a 69-29 margin in Wyoming.

According to SurveyUSA, Bush's approval rating in Wyoming is 52%.

In the 2004 General Election, the CNN exit poll claims that Cubin won 76% of Republicans, 42% of Independents, and 18% of Democrats. The partisan split there was 53% Republican, 25% Democrat, 22% Independent. She ran 19% behind Bush amongst Republicans, 12% behind him amongst Independents and 9% behind him amongst Democrats.

Barbara Cubin has another serious opponent this year and his name is Gary Trauner. Gary has $205,914 on hand and has spent $241,693 so far.

With Cubin's weak showing in 2004, a vastly popular Democratic Governor on the ballot in 2006, and the whole thing about Republicans being in bad shape in general, Cubin is a lot more vulnerable than we know right now. Given the right momentum, Dick Cheney's Representative in 2007 could be a Democrat.

CQPolitics.com says this about Cubin's race

Cubin has struggled to win unanimous support among party members, in part because some party leaders think she has not adequately dealt with the state’s pressing issues, including the prevalence of methamphetamine. The Wyoming Tribune-Eagle newspaper, in an unenthusiastic endorsement of Cubin, said she showed a “lack of leadership” but was “the best that the Republican Party has to offer at this time.”

The sheer number of Republicans in Wyoming are enough of a reason to be discouraged here. But then again, Trauner recieving 1/4th of the Republican vote is conceivable. He's definately on equal ground, cash-wise and he should be encouraged that a guy who spent $18645 got around 1.82 votes for every dollar he spent.

Posted at 08:42 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Wyoming | Technorati

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Comments

Great catch. Murkowski also came in an embarrassingly bad 3rd place in his primary, too.

Go Tony Knowles!

Posted by: James L. at August 23, 2006 12:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A commenter on CQ made the following point as well.

"Not only will Freudenthal likely win another term but prior to his immediate predecessor this state has had centre-right Democrats for governor for TWENTY consecutive years. Also, prior to Cubin, some lad named Malcolm Wallop nearly lost his U.S. Senate seat back in 1988 - even as his party's presidential ticket was dominating his state by a 3-2 ratio. My point: political writers need to note that some states are predominantly Republican - with different types within it being elected - while others are mostly centre-rightist - with different party members being elected. Given the steady standing of some Democrats and the shaky standing of some Republicans, it should not surprise them that WY is less than unswervingly Republican than its "35%" registration lead would suggest."

I wholeheartedly agree. There is a difference between a center-right Nebraska voter who voted for Ben Nelson, Kerrey, Exon, and Zorinsky for senator and Nelson for governor and a purely partisan republican voter in PA, OH, or central Illinois whose family has voted republican since the 1860 (or even 1856) presidential election.

Posted by: nada at August 23, 2006 12:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anyone else thinking Trauner would be a good add to the Netroots page?

Posted by: X Stryker at August 23, 2006 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hard to believe there is hope in this red district, but looks like there is. Trauner only ran 634 votes behind popular Gov. Dave Frueundethal-D. Cubin barely won the second most populous county, Natrona County (Casper) (where she was born & raised), by 414 votes, in the 2004 primary she took this county by 2,000 votes (but won it by less than 50%). Cubin lost the most populous county, Laramie County (Cheyenne) by a wide margin (1,156 votes). Cubin also lost Trauner's home county of Teton (Jackson) by 66 votes.
For all the Wyoming results, go here:
http://soswy.state.wy.us/election/2006/results/06psum.pdf

Posted by: Predictor at August 23, 2006 01:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment