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Tuesday, September 12, 2006

9/12 Primary Results Open Thread

Posted by James L.

(Bumped.)

Regrettably, I have a night class tonight, so I won't be able to liveblog the large number of exciting primary races that are up for grabs tonight, including: RI-Sen, MD-Sen, MD-04, AZ-08, NY-11, NY-19, and others. For a pre-primary round-up of all the races to watch, check my earlier post here.

So here's what I want to see happen while I'm out: I want you to give me your predictions on all the tight races (RI-Sen, MD-04, AZ-08 for both Republicans and Democrats, NY-11, WI-08, et cetera). Be sure to include your percentage margins as well. Let's see how savvy you really are...

As the evening wears on, feel free to post links to results pages and any updates as they happen in the comments section of this thread. And I'm sure that sites like Hotline On Call and MyDD will be liveblogging into the wee hours of the morning.

Posted at 07:11 PM in 2006 Elections | Technorati

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NY-19 (my district):
Shuldiner - 36%
Aydelott - 31%
Hall - 30%
Rigger - 3%

RI-Sen:
Laffee - 53%
Chafee - 47%

MD-Sen:
Cardin - 62%
Mfume - 38%

MD-04:
Wynn - 54%
Edwards - 46%

Posted by: NYPopulist at September 12, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Like NYPopulist, I'll round up my projections to discount the third-tier candidates:

RI-Sen: Laffey 54, Chafee 46

MD-Sen: Cardin 53, Mfume 47

MD-04: Wynn 63, Edwards 37

MN-05: Junge 35, Ellison 33, Erlandson 32

AZ-08: Graf 57, Huffman 43
Giffords 54, Weiss 46

I'm not up on the candidates in NY-11, NY-19 or WI-08 enough to opine on their chances.

Posted by: Mark at September 12, 2006 01:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Has anyone compiled a list of the times at which polls close in the various states, today?

Posted by: Christopher Walker at September 12, 2006 01:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RI-Sen: Laffey 52, Chafee 48

MD-Sen: Cardin 55, Mfume 45

MD-04: Wynn 58, Edwards 42

Posted by: Brian at September 12, 2006 01:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Handicapping the Wi-8 will be tough but here goes.

Given the GOP has launched a series of adds proclaiming Steve KAGEN is "Dr. Millionaire", one has to believe that the wonks at the RNCC have concluded that self funding KAGEN will be the opponent. The GOP has essentially ignored both Nancy NUSSBAUM & Jamie WALL. I have no horse in the race. All three are strong candidates worthy of support in November regardless the winner.

Fearless prediction:

Steve KAGEN: 40%
Nancy NUSSBAUM: 34%
Jamie WALL: 26%

NOTE on Jamie WALL: promising future whoever wins, hope to see him run for another office in the near future if he comes up short this time, a young Rhodes Scholar, Jamie has a lot to offer the Democratic Party and the nation in general>

MD Senate: CARDIN 39% MFUME 36% remainder of field 25%

RI Senate: LAFFEY over CHAFEE 54% to 46%

MD 4 Dem: EDWARDS upsets incumbent WYNN 51% to 49%

WYNN got called on falsely claiming endorsements late in the race, which I take as a sure sign he is in true trouble. WYNN's campaign got rusty very quickly and some of his votes, like the horrendous bankruptcy bill, are inexplicable given his district and its overwhelming opposition to the BUSH agenda. This is my pie in the sky prediction I must admit, but sometimes people do get what they deserve in politics.

NY 11 Dem: Split vote to send a white Jew to Congress in black majority district? Strong possibility.

YASSKY: 29 CLARKE 26 OWENS 26 ANDREWS 19

NY 19 Dem: HALL: 34 AYDELOTT: 31 SHULDINER: 31 RIGGER 4

AYDELOTT was the early money favorite but former Pop Star John HALL of Orleans , and Hall & OATES fame has surged strongly of late, and his fundraising has flared as AYDELOTTs has dimmed. I think the glamour of star power will allow HALL to squeak by. A week ago I would be predicting AYDELOTT so this race is basically wide open.

AZ 8 GOP: GRAF will win GOP nod 48% HUFFMAN 38% field 14%
AZ 8 Dem: GIFFORDS 57% WEISS 43%
Welcome to the House, Gabrielle :)

MINN 5 DEM: Just cannot see the endorsed Dem ELLISON winning this race. Is 2006 really the break thru year for a Muslim to enter the US Congress? Seems unlikely. This will be one of the closest races of the night. This race truly is anyone's guess.

JUNGE: 35 ELLISON 34 ERLANDSON 31

Well I am off to vote!

Posted by: walja at September 12, 2006 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Suppose I shouldn't be surprised that the SOS/Election sites either didn't have poll closing times or its severely buried, news souces worked best. The following info on SOS/Elections Board sites and Local News sources should hook you up with the info to connect on-line this evening for results. I'll probably be on here and will give reports as it won't be late for us functioning under Pacific Daylight Time. So, enjoy:
Arizona (Results avail 8pm MST):
http://www.azsos.gov/election/2006/Primary/2006_Primary_results_query.htm

Delaware: http://www.state.de.us/election/

Maryland (looks like the state site will not give results so here's a Local News Source): http://www.thewbalchannel.com/index.html
NOTE:Due to poll opening/machine issues voting may be extended beyond 8pm: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/elections/bal-vote0912,0,1406145.story?coll=bal-home-headlines
New Hampshire (looks like the state site will not give results poll; closing is 7 pm EDT.

New York – 9pm EDT
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/portal/page?_pageid=35,1,35_8301:35_8306&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
may also run results: http://www.ny1.com/
Rhode Island – 9pm EDT No specific link to 2006 results but they may appear here : http://www.elections.ri.gov/election.htm
Local News Source for Results: http://www.turnto10.com/index.html

Vermont – 7 pm EDT (looks like the state site will not give results): http://vermont-elections.org/soshome.htm
Local News Source for Results: http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060912/NEWS/60912037
Wisconsin – 8 pm CDT, State Elections Office (may post results): http://elections.state.wi.us/section.asp?linkid=155&locid=47
Local News Source for Results:
http://www.wkowtv.com/index.html/elections/list

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 05:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Chafee 51/49
Cardin 55/45
Graf 58/42
Gibbons 58/42
Wynn 60/40
Hall uh, er, uh, 38/36(Ay)/12/12
Kagen >50

Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 07:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And Erlandson, uh, 40, 38(Ellison), 22

Posted by: Joel at September 12, 2006 07:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Daily Kos diarists Nathaniel Ament Stone and Superribbie, who know their stuff, are both predicting that the NRCC's efforts for Huffman in AZ-08 will pay off in a victory. Might be hours till we know how that one has gone.

Posted by: Mark at September 12, 2006 07:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NY-19 John Hall (Ulster Co.) in lead in Rockland, Westchester & Orange Counties:
http://www.co.rockland.ny.us/BOE/ACCUM.HTM
http://www.westchestergov.com/electiontally/linkcounty.html
http://www.co.orange.ny.us/documentView.asp?docID=1409

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 09:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My District, NY's 11th.

House District 11
David S. Yassky [Dem] 3520 33.73%
Yvette D. Clarke [Dem] 2577 24.70%
Carl Andrews [Dem] 2211 21.19%
Chris Owens [Dem] 2127 20.38%
Reporting: 117 of 523 precincts - 22.37 percent
10:05pm

10 minutes ago, the names were almost in the completely opposite order.

And while everyone makes a big deal out of what a Black district this is, it has been changing, like all of Brooklyn. Crown Heights is one of the last affordable neighborhoods within an easy commutation distance to Manhattan. This is not the Crown Heights of the 1980's, or even of the 2000 census.

Posted by: Larissa at September 12, 2006 10:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NY-19 John Hall also carrying Dutchess County:
http://www.dutchesselections.com/dboe/Election%20Results/PE06UNOFFRESULTSFORNET.HTM

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 10:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Chafee appears to have won in Rhode Island. I gotta say this is a surprise, and unfortunately I also expect it to be indicative of disappointments to come on election night. Watching these Chafee/Laffey numbers roll in gave me that all-too-familiar feeling we all felt in 2002 and 2004 after building up our expectations for success.

Posted by: Mark at September 12, 2006 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yup, would have been nice to have gone up against easy prey (Laffey) however I'm not necessarily totally disappointed that Rhode Islanders opted for Chaffee over the neocon wingnut.

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 10:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NY-11 Yes, its a nailbiter:
House District 11
Yvette D. Clarke [Dem] 10014 29.16%
David S. Yassky [Dem] 9941 28.95%
Carl Andrews [Dem] 7659 22.30%
Chris Owens [Dem] 6724 19.58%
Reporting: 378 of 523 precincts - 72.28 percent

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

John Hall has won (my independent collection of data says 84% of results tabulated) the NY-19th with current polls indicating he has nearly 50% of the vote vs nearest competitor Aydelott with 25%.
AP says that at 73% of the vote Hall is also at 50% so its pretty clear.

The NY-19th is going to need all the help we can get once the votes are finialized so yets start getting it together

Posted by: MrMacMan at September 12, 2006 10:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AP has called it for
Hall (NY-19), Spencer, Cuomo, Clinton, Spitzer
http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
(note:no results on page)

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

House District 11
Yvette D. Clarke [Dem] 11360 29.56%
David S. Yassky [Dem] 10981 28.57%
Carl Andrews [Dem] 8525 22.18%
Chris Owens [Dem] 7568 19.69%
Reporting: 423 of 523 precincts - 80.88 percent

Maybe Yvette's using some of her "Woman Power"

Posted by: Larissa at September 12, 2006 10:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Precincts Reporting - 454 out of 1793 - 25%

U.S. Senate - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Ben Cardin 55,699 45%
Kweisi Mfume 44,270 36%
Josh Rales 7,164 6%
Dennis Rasmussen 3,373 3%
Mike Schaefer 2,138 2%
James Hutchinson 1,431 1%
Allan Lichtman 1,256 1%
Theresa Scaldaferri 1,216 1%
David Dickerson 960 1%
Anthony Jaworski 904 1%
Robert Kaufman 883 1%
Thomas McCaskill 851 1%
Bob Robinson 616 0%
Charles Smith 590 0%
George English 538 0%
Joseph Werner 537 0%
Blaine Taylor 479 0%
Lih Young 402 0%

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 11:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Precincts Reporting - 65 out of 208 - 31%

U.S. House - District 3 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
John Sarbanes 3,786 31%
Peter Beilenson 2,786 23%
Paula Hollinger 2,645 22%
Andy Barth 1,350 11%
Kevin O'Keeffe 545 5%
Oz Bengur 483 4%
Mishonda Baldwin 384 3%
John Rea 52 0%

Precincts Reporting - 44 out of 257 - 17%

U.S. House - District 4 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Al Wynn 8,373 56%
Donna Edwards 5,940 40%
George McDermott 518 3%
Precincts Reporting - 46 out of 171 - 27%

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 11:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Precincts Reporting - 46 out of 171 - 27%

U.S. House - District 6 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Andrew Duck 7,754 61%
Barry Kissin 4,904 39%
Donald Toker 0 0%

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 11:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

House District 11
Yvette D. Clarke [Dem] 14946 31.20%
David S. Yassky [Dem] 12570 26.24%
Carl Andrews [Dem] 10983 22.93%
Chris Owens [Dem] 9403 19.63%
Reporting: 523 of 523 precincts - 100.00 percent

That's the end, Yvette Clarke won.

Posted by: Larissa at September 12, 2006 11:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AZ -U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 8
Republican

With 48.8% in, Graf is leading Huffman by 317 votes, Cochise County has not reported and Graf did well there in 2004.

http://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primary/REP-1008.htm
On the Dem side its Giffords with 57.8% with 53.2% of the vote in.
vhttp://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primary/DEM-1008.htm

Posted by: Predictor at September 12, 2006 11:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Precincts Reporting - 828 out of 1793 - 46%

U.S. Senate - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Ben Cardin 106,720 46%
Kweisi Mfume 84,536 37%
Josh Rales 12,977 6%

Precincts Reporting - 101 out of 208 - 49%

U.S. House - District 3 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
John Sarbanes 10,119 32%
Peter Beilenson 7,338 23%
Paula Hollinger 7,152 23%
Andy Barth 3,128 10%
Precincts Reporting - 109 out of 257 - 42%

U.S. House - District 4 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Al Wynn 8,934 54%
Donna Edwards 6,888 42%
George McDermott 629 4%

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 12:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WI-8, its Kagen vs. Gard.
Candidate Party Votes Percent of Votes
Winner X John Gard 28,172 73%
Terri McCormick 10,648 27%

Winner Candidate Party Incumbent Votes Percent of Votes
Winner X Steven Kagen 18,662 46%
Nancy Nusbaum 9,583 24%
Jamie Wall 12,170 30%

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 12:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Any new numbers from that AZ-08 race? Seems like the figures have stalled out for like an hour.

Posted by: Mark at September 13, 2006 12:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AZ-8 With 62.1% in Graf leads by 723 votes, Cochise County still not reporting yet.

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 12:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maryland Sen. With 66% in Cardin still leads by 9%
CD-3 Sarbanes leads by 6% with 67% in and Wynn leads in CD-4 by 6% with 64% in. Looks like trends show Comptroller & character troll Don Schafer is going down. Owens leads Franchot by 1% and Schafer by 3% with 66% in. Franchot will need those late voters in his native Montgomery County to turn it around.

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 01:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cochise is in...came in big for Graf. Unless the remaining quarter of the vote in Pima County is in Huffman's backyard, Graf should win.

Posted by: Mark at September 13, 2006 01:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Excellent. The NRCC just threw $100k out the window by funding Huffman. I wonder what their next play will be.

Hey guys, thanks for keeping it lively here tonight while I was out. Have to go to bed (classes in the morning), but you all rock!

Posted by: James L. at September 13, 2006 01:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh yes Cochise County did, glad I read that article about the 2004 primary. With 80.6% in Graf ahead by 2,093 votes (42.4% to 37.8% Huffman) Don't know if the 25% still out in Pima could turn it around, but I doubt it given that Graf already is leading there.

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 01:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AZ-1 Its Simon, AZ-2 its Trasher and AZ-3 is too close to call with Chilton by 24 votes with 99.6% in. Gov (R) rabid anti-immigration Goldwater has lost to Munsil 40.5% to 49.7%. Goldwater carried Cochise County but lost the more populous Pima & Maricopa by wide margins.

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 01:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN: Only surprise other than Ellison's decisive win in CD5 was in the Attorney General primary - Steve Kelley, the candidate with the most money, most endorsements, and the biggest organization, lost to Lori Swanson, the current Solicitor General under AG Mike Hatch, who's running for Governor and provided plenty of resources to Swanson's run. Mostly clean race other than Hatch's involvement, which has been noted but obviously didn't have much of an effect on the outcome.

Swanson has strong legal cred and should be able to beat the GOP nominee, Jeff Johnson, who has been running for more than a year and only got 58% against a perennial wackjob candidate who happens to share a name with a former talk show host.

Posted by: JelloAbode at September 13, 2006 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not only is Diebold scary all by itself, after election reporting sources are pretty pitiful. Neither Montgomery County, Prince Georges County or the State of Maryland Election Results sites are showing up to date info on results or status on precincts yet to be repoted. WaPo manages to show some stats on MD-04 but with no County breakdowns:
Al Wynn * 33,143 49
Donna Edwards 31,242 47
George McDermott 2,610 4
Precincts: 88% | Updated: 11:41 a.m. ET | Source: AP
And, I'm seeing alot of press about provisional ballots yet to be counted, esp. in Montgomery County.The dearth of results reporting is frustrating. My guess is that making up a 1,901 vote margin on what is left to be counted is near impossible, though without knowing the true scope of what is left to be reported... Both Comptroller Candidate Franchot and Atty Gen. Candidate Gansler hail from Montgomery County, so my hope is that there are a considerable amount of ballots yet to be counted in this territory which should favor Edwards. I'm wishing right now that MD had a 50%rule, damned that was close and hopefully sent a clear signal to Cong. Wynn. Other than that, I'm interested in seeing the Cardin/Mfume breakdown in Balto City & PG Counties to get a guage on the Nov. matchup as it relates to the black vote. Hasta la vista William Donald Schaefer, that was a nice present.

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 12:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

To add to above, Baltimore's WBAL is showing 95% returns in with a wider margin for Wynn:
Precincts Reporting - 245 out of 257 - 95%

U.S. House - District 4 - Dem
Candidate Votes Percent Winner
Al Wynn 35,643 50%
Donna Edwards 32,876 46%
George McDermott 2,760 4%

Great work Donna Edwards! We'll see you in 2008?

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 12:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor, I'm also eager to see county returns from MD-Sen, particularly Prince George's, where I read Cardin's support among blacks may have been larger than one would expect.

As for Minnesota, I have concerns about Ellison. Having seen him in two debates, I admired his positions on the issues, but he just didn't come across as the least bit likable. With ethics issues guaranteed to hound him to the bitter end, the last thing we need is for soccer moms in Golden Valley to decide he's unlikable to boot. Keith Ellison will be the next Congressman from MN-05, but a November 7 in which Alan Fine is pulling in 38-40% of the vote is not a November 7 that will make Mike Hatch, Amy Klobuchar and Lori Swanson very happy.

Speaking of Swanson, what's up with that? I don't live in Minnesota anymore, so my best guess regarding Swanson's victory is that she funded TV ads while the others didn't. I thought Steve Kelley had this thing in the bag, but he seems to have been flogged in virtually every corner of the state. Swanson's strong showing (and the horribly weak showing by GOP standard-bearer Jeff Johnson who could only manage 57% against an unfunded opponent) raises my optimism about the DFL holding this seat. Another tough break for Steve Kelley though.

Posted by: Mark at September 13, 2006 01:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Must say I've seen some bizarre buzz about Ellison, which was one of the reasons I didn't think he'd win this. The Gop buzz I've seen in the aftermath is even funnier, exceptionally reactionary. Well, Ellison ran third in Golden Valley with 21.73% to Junge's 37.84% and Erlandson's 34.66% (Others = 5.8%). I note that Kerry picked up 62.6% of the vote there in '04. Here's a link to the Hennepin County results:
http://www2.co.hennepin.mn.us/elections/results/precreport?el=06PMNHEN&rid=130

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 03:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Before I forget re: walja comment at 9/12 4:55pm. John Hall is formerly of the band "Orleans", but not "Hall & Oates" which is Darryl Hall & John Oates. ;-)

Posted by: Predictor at September 13, 2006 08:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Even more optimistic numbers from the Minnesota primary. The DFL side has the only top-tier race in the MN-05 primary, but even in the other seven-eights of the state, turnout favored the DFL by a margin of nearly 2-1.

Statewide, the DFL swamped the GOP with 316,000 primary voters compared to Republicans' 166,000. The most striking numbers, however, came from the upper-income suburban and exurban numbers that have been giving the DFL headaches for nearly a decade now. The three most populous suburban counties are Dakota, Anoka, and Washington, which in 2004 went for Bush by respective margins of 51%, 53%, and 51%. Sixteen months later, the DFL nearly doubled the GOP's voter turnout in Anoka County and Dakota County (Pawlenty's home county where opponent Mike Hatch got more votes), and had a solid majority over the GOP in Washington County as well.

Even more troubling for the GOP is the turnout among their exurban base in the fast-growing outer metro counties like Scott, Carver, Wright, Sherburne, Isanti, and Chisago, the former four all voting for Bush by more than 20 points in 2004. The DFL had bested the GOP turnout by more than 20 points in Isanti and Chisago Counties, narrowly in Sherburne County, and by double digits in Mark Kennedy's home county of Wright (interesting nugget in Wright....Amy Klobuchar 2369, Mark Kennedy 1862). The GOP only managed to best Dem turnout in Scott County and Carver County, by one percentage point in each.

While I know these figures won't hold up on November 7, it's a good indication of demoralized and complacent Republican voters in Minnesota. Let's hope there's more where this came from.

Posted by: Mark at September 13, 2006 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment