Swing State Project

« AZ-08: Stick a Fork in Graf | Main | Pick a Patriot, Any Patriot... »

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

CA-11: The NRCC is Nervous

Posted by James L.

I'll let Say No To Pombo do the talking here:

The NRCC came into CA-11 back on August 3rd and dropped $16,275 on the table to finance polling for Richard Pombo. Then, a mere month later, they plunked down another $9,765 for a second round of Pombo polling. Now, I suspect that we’ll never know what that polling told them because they haven’t been in any hurry to release their findings publicly. But that omission probably tells us most of what we need to know about their results. And if there were any lingering suspicions, the NRCC’s subsequent actions have more than answered the question.

Following the first poll, the NRCC paid out $1,477 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production and $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers. After the second poll on 9/6, they made the following independent expenditures, all within a ten-day period:

* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/8 — $28,500 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/13 — $38,385 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers;
* 9/18 — $38,475 to Targeted Creative for mailers.

It’s worth noting that all of these expenditures have been identified for FEC purposes as being made in opposition to Jerry McNerney. That means the voters of CA-11 are going to be barraged with several more rounds of anti-McNerney advertising. It’s telling that even the NRCC can’t seem to find much good to say about Richard Pombo and his record in Congress. Instead, they have to content themselves with lying about Jerry McNerney.

Taken in total, that’s $250,762 in negative mailers paid for by the NRCC on behalf of Richard Pombo in just the last two weeks. Together with the polling, that means they’ve spent $276,802 in CA-11 in the last six weeks. You simply can’t convince me that Richard Pombo and the Republican Party aren’t deeply worried about the outcome of this race.

You can't convince me otherwise, either. The NRCC wouldn't drop over a quarter of a million dollars on this seat if McNerney wasn't threatening Pombo in their internal polls (which we'll never see, like a lot of Republican internal polls, because the results are embarrassing). Pombo, as you may recall, was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, and his heinous record on environmental issues have caused environmental groups and PACs to single him out for special punishment this year. Pombo is being challenged by netroots candidate Jerry McNerney, a man of integrity and a renewable energy expert--the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued district. The DCCC has sat on the sidelines since their preferred candidate, pilot Steve Filson, lost the primary. On Monday, they finally made the move to add McNerney to a slate of fifteen "Emerging Races", a program that will help deliver some fundraising for unusually strong challengers in reddish seats.

Bowers is right, though: McNerney deserves the full Red-to-Blue Program treatment here. That the NRCC would dump $250,000 in support of an incumbent whose fundraising has been very strong this cycle is eye-opening. The DCCC's "Emerging Races" treatment of McNerney is a positive step, but I'd say that he deserves the whole enchilada.

If you'd like to help Jerry McNerney apply more heat to Richard Pombo, give him some well-deserved help here.

Posted at 05:08 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2598

Comments

The DCCC finally got its senses together here in the CA-11.

Too bad in the NY-19 is still the race they ignored.
They announce that its a race 'out of the fray' but not emerging as a race to watch.

:sigh:
I dont get whats going on here, I mean if they finally get their act together in the CA-11 where they picked the losing candidate, why not here for John Hall?

Posted by: MrMacMan at September 20, 2006 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anyone remember how long it took the DCCC to get on-line for McNerney? The Primary was the first week of June, I thought it was well over a month after that. The problem here (Hall-NY-19) is that now we're only 7 weeks from Election Day. I'm beginning to agree that any Primary past June is too late to effectvely deal with a Nov. election.

Is there some other test John Hall must pass? Is the DCCC too overloaded with possibilities at this point?

I'm hoping the "non-contests" here for Senate & Gov and Hall's strong Primary showing and effort to date will help make up for any deficit by this lagging response.

Posted by: Predictor at September 20, 2006 11:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Primary occured on June 6th.

The DCCC posted an article about the NY primaries and said Hall was 1 of 4 candidates 'out of the fray' but the apparent snub of not including the NY-19th on even the emerging races list is very saddening.

I know Trippi is involved in the campaign and Rahm and him are not best of buddies but is that really the rational behind it?

I really hope its an oversight and by posting about it they will support him after all but -- its all speculation...

I'm just going to keep putting the pressure on.
--MrMacMan

Posted by: MrMacMan at September 21, 2006 12:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

James you almost got the perfect 10 on the aliteration.

"...the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued district"

Rephrase to
"...the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued PUBLIC"

or for a more revolutionary turn,

"the perfect panacea for a Pombo-plagued PROLETARIAT"

Posted by: nada at September 21, 2006 11:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"The Primary was the first week of June, I thought it was well over a month after that." should have read:
The Primary was the first week of June, I thought it was well over a month after that before the DCCC reacted positively to McNerney's winning the primary.
Wasn't trying to get a date on the primary was trying to determine the approximate date the DCCC first went into action on this for McNerney. Thnx.

Posted by: Predictor at September 21, 2006 12:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Believe me, nada, I had actually typed out "Pombo-plagued population" at first before I caught myself and decided to tone down the aliteration. Next time I'll go all out.

Posted by: James L. at September 21, 2006 01:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Is anyone taking advantage of online advertising? Seems like all only do TV and very little other media venues. Running their commercials online would be a great way to hit voters, considering people are spending more and more time online.

Posted by: Scope441 at September 22, 2006 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment