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Tuesday, September 12, 2006

CT-Sen, TN-Sen: New SUSA Polls

Posted by James L.

SUSA just released two new Senate polls today, one on the Tennessee Senate race (likely voters):

Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 48
Bob Corker (R): 45
MoE: ±4%

To the best of my knowledge, this is the first SurveyUSA poll of the Tennessee Senate race, so I don't have any trendlines for you, but this confirms the general tightening of the race shown in the (far less reliable) Rasmussen and Zogby Interactive polls, as well as Ford's own internals. Like I've said before, Democrats have a silver bullet that they can use against Corker--namely, the fact that he's completely unfit to hold public office after his abysmal record on providing emergency services as mayor of Chattanooga came to the fore. The Ford campaign and the DSCC should drive this theme hard, because America can ill-afford someone as irresponsible and reckless as Bob Corker in the Senate.

The second poll is far less heartening, but unsurprising:

Ned Lamont (D): 38
Joe Lieberman (Con. for Lie.): 51
Alan Schlesinger (R): 7
MoE: ±4%

Lamont allowed Lieberman to shape the post-primary narrative by taking a week off for a family vacation. While I'm sure Ned was exhausted, I'm afraid that this wasn't a tactically smart move. Ned has some catching up to do. Here's some key data:

Lieberman leads 6:1 among Republicans, 3:2 among Independents. Lamont leads 3:2 among Democrats. 83% of the Democrats who voted for Lieberman in the 08/08/06 Democratic Primary, which Lamont won by 4 points, stick with Lieberman as an Independent in the General Election. 16% of Democrats who voted for Lieberman in the Primary switch to Lamont in the General. 17% of Republicans support the Republican Party's nominee, Schlesinger.

It's been suggested on DailyKos and elsewhere that Ned should offer Schlesinger the chance to debate. At this point, why not? Anything to build up Schlesinger's profile and raise awareness of his conservative stances in order to shave off some support for Lieberman from his right flank would go a long way towards helping Lamont right now. I'm sure Schlesinger would jump at the chance (he needs all the free media he can get), and Lamont could bill it as a "major parties debate" separate from the three-way debates with Lieberman that should come later.

Posted at 06:59 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut, Tennessee | Technorati

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Comments

IN-08:
A poll by "Research 2000" released by Television station WISH (Indianapolis) showing Ellsworth at 44%, Hostetter 40%, Undecided 16% with a MOE of 5%
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060914/NEWS02/60914004
IN-09: Hill camp reporting same polling source/release type, showing 46% Hill, 40% Sodrel, Undecided 16% with MOE of 5%: http://www.baron2006.com/news.html?id=117

Searched for direct links to these polls but the best I can locate is Research 2000 main page which provides links to News article release links: http://www.research2000.us/

Posted by: Predictor at September 14, 2006 12:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment